Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
050
FXUS64 KEPZ 140421
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1021 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hottest temperatures of the year are on the way, with highs
104 to 108 Luna, Dona Ana, El Paso and Hudspeth Counties
through Wednesday.
- Mostly dry, but mountains, mainly the Sacs, will see a slight
chance of thunderstorms over the weekend.
- Possible smoke impacts in parts of Grant, Sierra, and Luna
Counties from the Trout and Buck Fire next few days.
- Breezy winds Monday/Tuesday will push fire conditions to near
critical.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025
It is about to get real hot. The hottest temperatures of the
season are on the way starting on Saturday and lasting through
at least Tuesday. The culprit in all of this is a large upper
level ridge centered almost directly over southern New Mexico.
This upper level ridge will park itself over the region through
Monday. High temperatures on Saturday, Sunday and Monday will run
7 to 10 degrees above average. This will have most lowland
locations easily reaching heat advisory criteria (high temps of
105) and for El Paso into the Rio Grande Valley below El Paso, we
will be close excessive heat warning criteria (high temps of 110).
Right now I`m keeping metro El Paso, just below heat warning
criteria, but probabilistic guidance has at least 25% chance that
El Paso could see a high of 110 Sunday through Tuesday. There
continues to be just enough moisture in trapped under the ridge to
give a slight chance for thunderstorms in the Sacramento
Mountains mainly on Saturday and Sunday.
On Monday the upper level ridge will begin to feel the impact of
an approaching upper level trough. The upper level ridge center
will push a little to the south and west as the upper level trough
moves into California. By Tuesday, the upper level ridge center
will be to our south and the upper level trough will be moving
across northern New Mexico. The upper level trough will usher in
some breezy west winds. The zonal flow (west to east) will
continue our very warm temperatures on Tuesday. The breezy winds
on Tuesday (maybe also Monday) will raise fire weather concerns,
especially with several on going fires.
For Wednesday and Thursday the upper level trough will be well to
our east and the upper level ridge will rebound and recenter back
over New Mexico. The current models are likely under doing
Wednesday and Thursday`s high temperatures, so we may need to
adjust those high temperatures up a few degrees as we get closer.
Down at the surface on Thursday, we will see our surface winds
come around to the southeast and that may be the beginning of some
moisture moving into the region. For now it is too early to tell
how much, if any moisture will move in, so our forecast is dry
through the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025
VFR conditions for the next 24 hours as upper level high pressure
takes control of our weather. We will have unlimited ceilings
tonight and through the day on Saturday. The winds will be light
tonight, but we may see some low end gusty winds at all TAF sites
Saturday afternoon into the early evening hours. The main concern
on Saturday will be the heat. Anyone working the ramps or on the
tarmacs should prepare for excessive heat by taking plenty of
breaks and staying hydrated. Density altitude could become an
issue especially at KELP where we could see DA`s approaching 7,700
feet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1056 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025
Much above normal temperatures to continue through the week ahead
with very low humidity and low fuel moisture. Thus, fire
conditions will remain at least elevated into much of next week. A
few daytime thunderstorms still possible over the mountain zones
through the weekend. Winds most days relatively light, but they
will become breezy Monday and Tuesday, possibly creating critical
fire conditions (near Red Flag).
Min RH: Lowlands 6-11% through Wednesday. Mountains 10-18% through
Wednesday. Vent rates good Saturday, then very good-excellent
Sunday through Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 75 107 77 108 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 66 100 68 101 / 10 10 10 10
Las Cruces 68 103 69 104 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 68 102 70 103 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 54 81 56 81 / 0 10 0 20
Truth or Consequences 70 103 72 104 / 10 0 0 0
Silver City 64 96 67 98 / 0 0 0 10
Deming 67 105 68 107 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 64 101 66 104 / 0 0 0 10
West El Paso Metro 76 103 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 68 104 69 104 / 0 10 10 10
Fort Hancock 70 107 73 108 / 10 0 10 10
Loma Linda 69 97 71 99 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 71 106 73 107 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 70 102 73 103 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 75 103 76 104 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 65 102 66 104 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 65 104 66 106 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 71 104 72 106 / 10 0 0 0
Orogrande 69 101 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 58 92 59 93 / 0 10 0 20
Mescalero 58 91 60 91 / 0 10 0 10
Timberon 56 88 56 89 / 0 10 0 10
Winston 56 95 58 95 / 10 0 0 10
Hillsboro 65 102 68 103 / 0 0 0 10
Spaceport 63 102 65 103 / 10 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 57 97 60 99 / 0 0 0 10
Hurley 63 99 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 61 102 64 104 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 60 96 63 99 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 66 99 69 100 / 0 0 0 10
Animas 65 100 68 103 / 0 0 0 10
Hachita 65 101 66 104 / 0 0 0 10
Antelope Wells 67 101 69 104 / 0 0 10 10
Cloverdale 66 96 70 99 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight MDT Monday night
for Western El Paso County.
Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Monday night for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
Eastern Hudspeth County.
NM...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight MDT Monday night
for Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest
Desert/Mimbres Basin.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice