Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
166 FXUS64 KEPZ 192355 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 455 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 445 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 - A Pacific storm system will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area this afternoon, especially over southwestern New Mexico, where some stronger storms may contain hail and strong winds. - Showers will merge into steady light to moderate rain that will spread across the area tonight into Thursday morning. Light snow accumulations may reach Emory Pass in the Gila Region by dawn. Snow showers may drop down to around 8000 feet Thursday afternoon. Some ice pellets may mix in with heavier showers in some lowland areas Thursday as well. - It will be breezy and blustery on Thursday, with gusts over 40 mph along east-facing mountain slopes. - Additional rain showers and mountain snow looks more likely heading in Saturday night and Sunday, with some accumulations possible at high elevations. Quieter weather will follow. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1222 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 The upper low over southern California is slowly moving east towards the Colorado River. A plume of moisture associated with the subtropical jet has lagged, keeping showers in place over parts of east El Paso, The Sacramento Mountains, Otero Mesa, and much of Hudspeth County. Models have not been handling this well at all, but a weakening trend should continue over the next hour or two. Meanwhile, our focus shifts to the west, where increasing southwest flow and additional moisture ahead of the upper low will lead to increasing convective shower activity, and likely a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a strong vort max at the base of the trough, just NW of the "Baja Spur". This will pivot northeast and phase with the main upper low as the parent trough becomes negatively tilted overnight. This will result in convective showers and thunderstorms becoming more widespread merging into a steadier band of light to moderate precipitation later tonight, which will then shift ENE through morning. The backside of the steadier precip looks to push east of El Paso after sunrise, with additional bands of isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm continuing through the afternoon Thursday. Instability is limited, but shear is strong. Still can`t rule out the odd severe thunderstorm this afternoon in SW New Mexico, otherwise most of the stronger storms will have small hail and some wind gusts around 45-50 mph. Training cells could lead to localized flooding into the evening hours. Later tonight, precip becomes more stratiform, with lower rainfall rates, which will mitigate the flooding risk. The Gila and Mimbres rivers should see some decent rises. But the Gila (at Gila, NM) is currently running at just 75 cfs, though this is near median values. We should start to build a little snowpack in the headwaters of the West Fork (Mogollon Mountains), which is well needed. Typically winter is flood season on the Gila, and typically flooding requires a warmer rain event on a pre-existing snowpack. Upstream obs currently show snow levels around 9500-10,000 feet in eastern Arizona (based on obs on Mount Graham). In the Gila, obs at McKnight Cabin show 37 degrees at 9200 feet. An EBID weather station near Emory Pass (8300 feet) is 41 degrees. In the Sacramentos, we may have spied some snow mixing in on a Forest Service camera at Cathey Peak a couple hours ago, perhaps we were still wet-bulbing, but now it`s 37 at Sunspot (9250 feet), with a dewpoint of 35, and 39 at mesonet stations near High Nogal (8800 feet). Any additional snow mixing in looks unlikely as southerly flow keeps snow levels steady into the evening. Snow levels over the Gila will fall closer to 8500 feet in the predawn hours, perhaps bringing some slushy light accumulation to Emory Pass (NM-152), with an inch or two possible in unpopulated roadless areas higher up. Snow levels in the Sacramentos will remain above 10,000 feet into the morning hours, then fall to around 9000 feet by midday. Some of the convective showers tomorrow (Thu) could contain some graupel and snow over the Gila region as snow levels continue to drop to around 7000 feet before sunset, but dewpoints in the mid-30s suggest anything at lower elevations would be very brief and only in heavier convective showers. In the Sacramentos, a dusting to an inch could occur at Cloudcroft by night fall, and up to an inch or two above 9000 feet. Again, expect graupel and snow in convective bursts at times, which could reduce visibility. It`ll be a blustery and gusty day across the area Thursday afternoon, with temps stuck in the upper-50s for the lowlands. A few gusts in the 40-45 mph range will be possible, especially in favored east-facing slope locations and exposed ridgelines. Contenders for stronger gusts include NE El Paso, WSMR Main Post and up-range areas east of the San Andres Mountains, and exposed ridges in the Sacramento Mountains. (And San Augustin Pass, obviously!) Another system is on track for the weekend as another closed low drops down into southern California on Friday, maintaining the longwave trough position along the west coast. The low looks to get cutoff and track across the northern Gulf of California by Saturday evening. After that, the speed and track of the upper low is a little more questionable. The 12Z GFS came in a little faster and with the low passing just north of LRU Sunday afternoon. I`d tend to favor the slower ECMWF, but with a similar track, closer to the ensemble mean, though several members still take the upper low south of ELP, which would be cooler and wetter. Even so, there`s a good chance for additional rain and snow across the CWA Saturday night into Sunday, with snow levels running about 1000 feet lower than with this current system. Still too early for a deterministic snowfall forecast, but few inches accumulation Sat Night through Sunday above 8000 feet isn`t totally unlikely. Medium range NBM members are all far too coarse in resolution to really trust snowfall statistics in our complex terrain. The closer we get, some of the higher-res models which tend to go bonkers with orographic QPF start polluting the blend in other ways. It`s better to look at liquid QPF and consider possible snow levels and ratios instead, even though that doesn`t lend itself to pretty pictures generated in DESI. NBM ensemble mean QPF (24 hours ending Sun night) over the Gila and Sacs is around 0.15", 90th percentile is around 0.40". Using the most non-commital phrases I can muster... a really rough ballpark estimate suggests 1-3 inches can`t be ruled out above 7500 feet given the most likely low track. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 445 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this evening mostly along and west of the Rio Grande. Thunderstorms are starting to fire up near KDMN and even towards KTCS, but with the loss of sunlight in the next hour or so, storms should transition towards rain showers overnight with the possibility of thunder here and there. Models are suggesting a pretty good swath of rain to develop across the area later tonight and through the overnight hours. This system will lift out of the area tomorrow. Rain showers look to still be going on by sunrise but clearing conditions will work west to east throughout the day. Some lingering hit and miss light rain showers possible tomorrow afternoon before clearing out by the early evening hours. In addition, winds will be quite breezy tomorrow afternoon out of the west southwest at 15-25G30-35KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1222 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025 Fire weather concerns continue to be minimal as a pair of systems will bring cooler temperatures, higher humidity, and a fair amount of precipitation to the region today and Thursday, and again Saturday Night into Sunday. Breezy to windy conditions Thursday will be mitigated by high humidity. Lots of burn pile spot requests lately. Most favorable vent rates this afternoon will be in the lower elevations in SW New Mexico, and the middle elevations elsewhere, with less favorable rates above 7500 feet. Vent rates will be much improved tomorrow with increasing west winds, except in the higher elevations (especially above 8000 feet) where mixing heights will be limited, closer to the inversion layer, the base of which which looks to hang out right around 10,000 feet most of the day. Vent rates look the worst on Friday, with some improvement Saturday. Things could get a bit dodgy again with the next system moving through Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 53 63 41 63 / 80 70 0 0 Sierra Blanca 50 64 36 61 / 60 70 0 0 Las Cruces 48 58 32 58 / 80 70 0 0 Alamogordo 47 56 32 58 / 80 80 0 0 Cloudcroft 35 37 24 42 / 80 90 0 0 Truth or Consequences 46 55 35 56 / 90 70 0 0 Silver City 41 45 30 52 / 90 60 0 0 Deming 48 57 30 60 / 80 40 0 0 Lordsburg 47 53 32 57 / 80 30 0 0 West El Paso Metro 53 61 42 60 / 70 70 0 0 Dell City 50 65 33 64 / 50 60 0 0 Fort Hancock 54 68 38 67 / 60 80 0 0 Loma Linda 48 57 37 55 / 60 80 0 0 Fabens 53 65 37 64 / 70 70 0 0 Santa Teresa 51 59 38 59 / 70 70 0 0 White Sands HQ 51 59 37 60 / 80 70 0 0 Jornada Range 47 57 27 58 / 80 70 0 0 Hatch 49 58 29 61 / 80 70 0 0 Columbus 50 59 36 62 / 80 40 0 0 Orogrande 49 59 35 57 / 80 70 0 0 Mayhill 42 47 28 56 / 70 80 0 0 Mescalero 40 44 27 53 / 80 80 0 0 Timberon 41 46 26 49 / 70 80 0 0 Winston 40 47 24 51 / 90 60 0 0 Hillsboro 44 51 33 57 / 90 60 0 0 Spaceport 46 55 28 57 / 80 70 0 0 Lake Roberts 39 42 18 54 / 90 70 10 0 Hurley 42 48 29 55 / 90 60 0 0 Cliff 45 48 25 58 / 90 60 0 0 Mule Creek 41 46 26 54 / 80 40 0 0 Faywood 43 48 33 54 / 90 50 0 0 Animas 46 54 34 60 / 80 60 0 0 Hachita 46 55 33 59 / 80 40 0 0 Antelope Wells 46 54 31 60 / 80 40 0 0 Cloverdale 43 47 35 55 / 90 70 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher