Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
698 FXUS64 KEPZ 141056 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 456 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1025 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - An overall increase in thunderstorm activity is expected through the week, with the usual potential monsoon hazards of heavy rainfall with localized flooding, gusty winds, and localized blowing dust. - With the return of moisture and increased cloudiness, daytime temperatures will drop back towards mid-July normals for today and through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 The area will continue to be sandwiched between two upper high pressure systems Monday keeping moisture in place over the area. Lingering convection tonight may help keep clouds largely socked in through much of the morning and possibly into the early afternoon hours. If clouds can stay socked in, this will help to delay storms and depending on how cloudy the area can stay, this will help suppress convection too allowing for less storms. On the other hand, cloudy skies that clear out mid-afternoon will add more instability to storms. CAMs are suggesting storms will initiate over the area mountains with lesser activity heading into the mid to late afternoon hours presumably from the cloud cover. Heading into Tuesday, a small upper low will shift westward just off shore of Baja California which will weaken the ridge over the desert southwest. An easterly wave progressing over the Gulf of Mexico will create a weakness in the other ridge to our east Tuesday. Tuesday and Wednesday will continue with the afternoon monsoonal thunderstorm chances but by Thursday this weak low pressure looks to slowly meander and spin away until where it takes a northerly trajectory centered over northern Baja and southern California. This will help bring a focus for moisture and storms wherever this moisture plume sets up. This will also increase our PWs to above average which will increase the flash flooding threat with thunderstorms. This added upper level support could keep thunderstorms/showers going overnight Thursday into Friday. It looks like we keep thunderstorm chances each day through the remainder of the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 455 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Thunderstorm activity is done for the remainder of tonight/early Monday morning. Considerable clouds remain with SCT-BKN100 BKN250. Isolated BKN060 -SHRA, mainly west of Deming through about 14Z. Clouds should slowly diminish through the morning hours. Developing after 18Z, mainly over the mountains...scattered BKN- OVC050CB -TSRA. Thunderstorms beginning to develop over the lowlands after 21Z, especially associated with outflow from the mountain storms. Pea-size hail (with a few approaching one inch) along with wind gusts of 35-45 knots possible with some of these storms. Thunderstorms possible at all TAF sites starting late this afternoon, but confidence to include in forecast is low at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 455 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Main threat, as has been in the recent past, is heavy rain/flooding near the burn scars. Expect scattered mountain thunderstorms and isolated lowland storms this afternoon, becoming more focused over zones west of Deming Tuesday/Wednesday. Increasing mid-level southeast flow should push additional moisture into the zones Thursday and Friday, with scattered thunderstorms all zones. The chance for heavy rain/flooding will also likely increase for this period. Storm outflow will once again determine location of lowland storms this evening. These outflows will also cause strong, erratic wind shifts with wind gusts of 40-50 mph possible. Min RH: Lowlands 20-30% through Friday. Gila/Black Range 25-35% through Friday; Sacramento Mtns 35-50% through Friday. Vent rates fair-good through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 95 74 98 76 / 30 20 10 10 Sierra Blanca 87 65 89 67 / 20 10 20 10 Las Cruces 92 69 95 70 / 30 30 10 20 Alamogordo 91 67 94 71 / 50 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 67 49 71 52 / 80 10 40 10 Truth or Consequences 92 69 95 71 / 40 30 30 20 Silver City 86 62 89 62 / 80 50 70 60 Deming 95 68 97 71 / 50 50 20 40 Lordsburg 92 67 95 68 / 60 60 60 70 West El Paso Metro 93 74 95 75 / 30 20 10 10 Dell City 91 69 94 70 / 20 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 95 73 97 74 / 30 20 20 20 Loma Linda 85 66 88 68 / 40 10 10 10 Fabens 94 72 96 73 / 20 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 92 72 95 73 / 30 30 10 20 White Sands HQ 92 74 95 74 / 40 20 10 10 Jornada Range 92 69 95 69 / 40 20 20 10 Hatch 95 69 98 69 / 40 30 20 30 Columbus 94 71 97 73 / 30 50 10 50 Orogrande 90 68 93 70 / 40 10 10 0 Mayhill 77 54 81 57 / 80 10 40 0 Mescalero 79 54 82 57 / 80 10 40 10 Timberon 75 53 78 55 / 70 10 30 0 Winston 85 56 88 58 / 70 40 70 40 Hillsboro 90 64 94 65 / 60 40 50 40 Spaceport 92 67 95 66 / 40 20 20 20 Lake Roberts 87 57 90 56 / 80 50 80 60 Hurley 89 63 91 65 / 70 50 60 50 Cliff 93 65 95 65 / 80 50 70 60 Mule Creek 90 62 92 63 / 80 50 70 60 Faywood 87 64 91 65 / 70 50 60 40 Animas 93 67 95 68 / 60 60 70 70 Hachita 91 67 94 68 / 60 50 50 70 Antelope Wells 91 66 92 66 / 60 70 70 80 Cloverdale 87 63 87 63 / 70 80 80 80 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner