Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
548
FXUS64 KEPZ 301128
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
528 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026
- Hot temperatures persisting through Friday, running 5 to 10
degrees above normal. Lowland highs 102 to 108 each afternoon,
followed by a slight cool down this weekend.
- Limited thunderstorm activity next few days, focused over the
high terrain and far western New Mexico. A pattern shift will
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms back to the lowlands
starting Friday and Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Persistent upper high remains fixed over New Mexico and West
Texas, leading to drier and much warmer-than-normal weather
conditions for the end of July. GFS 500-mb height anomalies
suggest this high is 3-4 standard deviations stronger than is
typical for the middle of the North American Monsoon. The pattern
is not favorable for widespread rain, as any storms that do form
will be mostly driven by recycled moisture and convective
temperature/terrain forcing producing meager lift. The primary
monsoonal moisture plume is focused further west, mostly over
Sonora and southern Arizona.
The main headline for the desert lowlands will continue to be hot
temperatures. Suffocating upper ridge aloft will promote very hot
afternoon conditions, followed by little relief overnight. Highs
will run 8-12 degrees above normal for late July, which means
lowland highs in the 102 to 108 degree range through at least
Friday. A Heat Advisory is in effect for El Paso, the lower Rio
Grande Valley, and portions of south-central New Mexico on
Thursday, and may need to be expanded further across southern New
Mexico on Friday.
Downtrend in storm chances continues on Thursday, with
precipitable water values in the 0.9-1.1" range (slightly below
normal). The upper high directly over central New Mexico will act
as a suppressant for rain chances. Subsident 500-mb flow will
cause a warming effect aloft and eat away at potential
instability. Southwest New Mexico and the high terrain may still
see isolated (10-30% coverage) showers and thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon, but the majority of the CWA will remain dry.
Rain chances do increase Friday/Saturday. Upper high will make a
retrograde maneuver, shifting west over the lower Colorado River
valley. At the same time, a surface boundary moving down the
Plains will push additional moisture southwest into the El Paso
region. PW`s in the 1.3-1.5" range should return by Friday,
allowing for more scattered (50-70% coverage) showers and
thunderstorms. Current models suggest Friday could be a high
flooding risk with very slow storm motions, followed by a higher
severe threat Saturday given north flow aloft and marginal 0-6km
shear.
The start of next week looks drier again, though temperatures will
be sub-Advisory (lowlands highs 98-102). Next week`s rain chances
once again look to favor the high elevations and western New
Mexico, with much of the Rio Grande Valley and Tularosa Basin
staying dry most evenings.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026
VFR conditions expected through the period with SKC-SCT100-150.
Winds will be light, generally less than 10 knots with a few gusts
up to 20 knots. Direction will favor the east to southeast for
most sites, but with considerable variability. ISO SHRA/TSRA will
be possible mainly west of the Rio Grande, but the chance for any
direct impacts, aside from a wind shift from outflows, is less
than 20% for any TAF site.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 525 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026
Temperatures will continue to be much above average for today and
Friday with min RH values in the mid to upper teens in the
lowlands. Storms will mainly be limited to the area mountains this
afternoon with few storms in the lowlands west of the Continental
Divide. Winds today will be light with mainly good vent
categories. An UL system will swing through the area Friday
evening into Saturday, bringing an increase in thunderstorm
chances area wide for both days. Temperatures will also be cooler
on Saturday with improved minimum RHs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 78 106 79 100 / 10 10 60 20
Sierra Blanca 70 104 71 95 / 0 10 30 20
Las Cruces 75 104 74 98 / 10 10 60 20
Alamogordo 75 104 72 97 / 10 20 30 60
Cloudcroft 56 79 54 73 / 20 50 40 90
Truth or Consequences 77 102 76 98 / 10 10 20 30
Silver City 68 97 67 93 / 10 50 20 60
Deming 76 105 76 100 / 20 10 40 10
Lordsburg 74 104 75 100 / 10 10 30 30
West El Paso Metro 80 106 80 99 / 10 0 60 20
Dell City 73 106 74 97 / 0 10 20 40
Fort Hancock 77 109 78 102 / 0 0 40 20
Loma Linda 72 99 71 91 / 0 20 50 30
Fabens 77 106 77 100 / 0 0 60 20
Santa Teresa 76 105 76 98 / 10 0 60 20
White Sands HQ 79 106 78 98 / 10 10 60 30
Jornada Range 76 106 75 98 / 10 10 50 30
Hatch 76 107 75 102 / 10 10 40 20
Columbus 78 106 77 100 / 20 0 50 10
Orogrande 72 104 72 95 / 10 10 50 40
Mayhill 62 91 59 83 / 10 60 30 90
Mescalero 61 92 59 84 / 10 50 40 90
Timberon 60 89 57 82 / 10 50 30 90
Winston 64 93 63 90 / 10 50 20 60
Hillsboro 72 100 71 97 / 10 30 20 50
Spaceport 74 104 72 98 / 10 10 40 30
Lake Roberts 62 96 62 93 / 10 60 20 70
Hurley 71 100 70 95 / 10 40 30 60
Cliff 71 104 71 101 / 10 40 20 50
Mule Creek 68 100 68 97 / 10 30 20 40
Faywood 71 99 70 94 / 10 40 40 50
Animas 74 105 76 101 / 20 0 20 10
Hachita 74 104 74 99 / 20 10 40 10
Antelope Wells 72 104 73 99 / 30 0 40 10
Cloverdale 68 99 71 96 / 30 0 30 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for Eastern/Central El Paso
County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
County-Western El Paso County.
NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for Northern Dona Ana County-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest
Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White
Sands.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown