Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
795 FXUS64 KEPZ 011804 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1204 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1134 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026 - Mostly dry conditions with some breeziness Thursday through Saturday with low end chances for showers confined to the Sacramento Mtns and Hudspeth County. - Pleasant with temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 70s Thursday and through the weekend. These temperatures will be about 5 to 8 degrees below normal for this time of year. - Off and on showers will be possible going into the middle of next week but with near average temperatures returning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1134 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026 The upper low that affected the region recently is over KS but stalling out and it will leave an elongated positively tilted trough with a brief cutoff low southeast of the CWA. This will help to push through a back door cold front through tonight and bring some low clouds and gusty east to northeast winds. Winds on the west slopes could gust over 30 mph and then tomorrow along the I-10 corridor we will see winds of 15-25G35mph. The low clouds will make it to near the RGV and possibly make it near Deming to Columbus in the morning. Forecast soundings and CAMs indicate a modestly deep moist layer so could see some showers on the east slopes of the Sacs and then some forcing with the upper low over far west TX. Not expecting more than sprinkles into El Paso county, but eastern Hudspeth could see a tenth of an inch. The easterly winds will keep temperatures below normal with areas out east where clouds linger all day not getting warmer than the mid 60s and mid 70s the warmest over the lower elevations of NM. Not much change as a Rex Block sets up for Sat. The moisture will not be as deep and we will see less shower activity and some gradual breaks in the clouds. Most of the lowlands will get into the 70s although it may still struggle out east. The blocking feature does break down by late Sunday but then we will see a couple of troughs break down ridge to the west and bring additional precip chances. Nothing significant or really impactful but some light rain showers will be possible across the area, particularly Mon and Wed. Some instability Wed showing up in the models which could lead to some stronger thunderstorms. Temperatures will be warming to near normal for early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026 P6SM SKC-SCT060-080 for western areas through the period. A back door cold front will be moving through tonight and bring low clouds and even some fog to areas east of all terminals. KELP, KLRU and KTCS will have some periods after 03Z of BKN050-070 but over the eastern Sacramento Mountains into Hudspeth County will have areas of -SHRA 1-3SM BR BLO BKN010. Winds will start out north to northeast 5-15KTS but turn more NE to E and increase to 10-20G30KTS with the strongest winds at KDMN and western mountain slopes. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1134 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026 Little to no fire concerns still for the upcoming 5 days after recent rains. There will be some gusty east to northeast winds moving in overnight behind a back door cold front. Some areas on western mountain slopes and along the I-10 corridor will have gusts over 30 mph Friday. Winds will decrease for the remainder of the period but occasional gusts over 20 mph will be possible. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal through Monday with RH`s remaining above 35%. Vent rates will be fair to good Fri but decrease to poor to fair on Sat. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 60 71 55 76 / 0 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 66 49 70 / 0 10 20 0 Las Cruces 54 70 52 74 / 0 10 10 0 Alamogordo 54 71 52 73 / 10 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 39 46 37 55 / 50 50 30 10 Truth or Consequences 56 70 53 75 / 10 10 0 0 Silver City 51 67 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 57 72 54 75 / 0 10 10 0 Lordsburg 57 71 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 71 56 76 / 0 10 0 0 Dell City 56 65 53 73 / 10 30 20 0 Fort Hancock 59 68 54 79 / 0 10 0 0 Loma Linda 53 63 49 69 / 0 10 0 0 Fabens 58 69 55 78 / 0 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 57 69 53 75 / 0 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 57 72 55 76 / 0 10 10 0 Jornada Range 52 72 52 75 / 0 10 10 0 Hatch 57 74 53 77 / 0 10 10 0 Columbus 59 72 55 76 / 0 10 0 0 Orogrande 54 70 50 74 / 10 10 0 0 Mayhill 45 53 43 67 / 70 80 40 10 Mescalero 45 55 42 68 / 50 40 30 10 Timberon 43 55 40 63 / 30 30 10 10 Winston 47 64 44 70 / 10 10 0 0 Hillsboro 54 68 53 74 / 10 10 0 0 Spaceport 53 71 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 42 66 42 74 / 0 10 0 0 Hurley 53 69 50 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 47 76 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 73 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 54 67 50 72 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 58 71 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 55 70 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 56 70 53 73 / 0 10 0 0 Cloverdale 55 66 51 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz