Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
792 FXUS64 KEPZ 120637 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1137 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1053 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025 - Expect continued dry conditions with a warming trend through Friday. - A storm system this weekend has trended towards a more northerly track. This will mean breezy west winds on Sunday, with scattered rain showers in Southwest New Mexico Sunday evening. Some high elevation snow may mix in as well. - Cooler temperatures arrive early next week, and additional chances for light precipitation may lurk next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1053 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025 High pressure aloft to our south will keep us in a zonal pattern through the next 24 hours. The pattern will slowly become more amplified Thursday into Friday as troughing digs off the California coast. This trough will eject across the Four Corners region Sunday into Monday, but models continue to trend towards a drier solution as the bulk of the lift and moisture with this system looks to mainly stay to our north and west. In the meantime, we`ll continue to tack on 3-4 degrees to our afternoon high temperatures Wednesday and Thursday as the pattern amplifies, with ELP pushing the lower-80s Thu/Fri (about 10-15 degrees above normal across the area). Overnight lows will continue to drop into 40s across most rural areas, with 20s/30s in the usual cold spots. The precip threat looks to be mainly confined to SW New Mexico, including the Gila Region, as early as Sunday afternoon, but mainly focused on Sunday night into early Monday. High elevation rain/snow mix is possible, but this will likely be above any populated areas or highway passes, so impacts look to be minimal. Otherwise, expect breezy west to southwest winds on Sunday afternoon across the lowlands. Troughing off the west coast looks to maintain itself into the middle of next week, and additional precip chances may return next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1053 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025 VFR conditions with FEW-SCT250 and light winds will prevail through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1035 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025 Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. East slopes of the Sacs will see breezy west winds this afternoon as a result of surface troughing in E NM with elevated fire weather conditions expected. Otherwise, light winds are forecast today with dry conditions. Overnight RH recoveries will be fair to good tonight. Warm, dry, and calm weather continues through Fri. A storm system brings a low chance of rain and high elevation snow showers this weekend with low confidence in timing and impacts. Breezy winds also accompany the system, most likely Sun/Mon. Temperatures fall to below normal early next week. Min RHs will be 10-20% through Fri, then rising to 30-60% on Sun. Vent rates range from poor to good through Fri, then fair to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 79 49 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 75 55 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 76 41 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 75 40 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 58 43 58 44 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 74 45 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 72 45 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 79 41 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 76 40 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 76 49 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 77 35 81 38 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 82 46 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 71 42 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 79 42 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 75 47 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 77 50 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 76 34 76 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 79 35 80 39 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 79 45 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 74 46 75 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 70 43 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 69 37 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 65 33 66 30 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 70 38 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 77 46 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 75 38 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 72 26 71 23 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 74 41 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 78 33 77 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 74 30 73 27 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 74 43 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 79 46 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 78 45 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 79 42 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 73 48 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman