Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
675
FXUS64 KEPZ 021148
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
548 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 538 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026
- The east slopes of the Sacramentos will be socked in with low
clouds, advection fog, a bit of drizzle or a brief shower, and
much lighter winds into the morning hours.
- Breezy conditions, with gusts 35 to 45 mph, can be expected
west of some of the desert mountain ranges today.
- Off and on showers will be possible going into the middle of
next week but with near average temperatures returning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1132 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026
A backdoor cold front is pushing into the area overnight. Already
we are seeing upslope stratus socking in the east slopes of the
Sacramentos, and where the clouds are running aground, some fog.
HREF members are all indicating strong downslope winds on the west
slopes of the Sacramentos overnight, with gusts in to 40 to 50 mph
range. 50 mph gusts are enough for Wind Advisory criteria at EPZ.
Normally I`d have skipped an advisory for the expected wind gust
range, but with all the recent rainfall saturating the soil, and
east winds having a history of producing more wind damage (they`re
not uncommon in backdoor front scenarios, but are generally
lighter and less frequent than the prevailing west winds), I
figured we should lean into the potential impacts a bit more and
go ahead with an Advisory. We`re still stuck using Forecast Zones,
which were mostly created with snow levels in mind. The actual
hazard area is east of US-54 in the Tularosa Basin, and west of
the crest. Most (or all?) of the higher elevation areas along the
Sunspot Highway are on the downslope side, so their zone was
included too. But once you get east of Cloudcroft, the winds will
be much lighter, with clouds/fog/drizzle. It`ll look a little
weird on some web site maps, but I did whittle back the Hazard
grids to match reality.
Otherwise, expect breezy downslope winds, especially west of the
Huecos and Franklins tonight, with some gusts around 40-45 mph.
Far fewer trees (but not zero), and far less rain from Polo down
here.
With a moisture-starved closed low embedded in a trough stalling
out over the area tomorrow, we`ll see clouds blossom after
sunrise, aided by residual low level moisture and steepening lapse
rates. Ceilings around 5000-7000 feet. A few spotty showers will
be possible, especially over the Sacramentos as the stratus starts
mixing.
Upper level ridging will bring quiet weather, and a slow warming
trend through the weekend, with 80s returning by Sunday. Another
trough dropping in from the north mid-week looks interesting with
its -10C 500mb temps and subtropical jet streak exit region nosing
in. The sort of pattern that makes me think of convective showers
with a bit of small hail. Moisture looks a little lacking, but
not bone dry. The models that feed the NBM aren`t kicking out
much precip except a slight chance over the Sacs, and we can`t
edit past Day 3. Worth keeping tabs on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026
VFR conditions with variable skies through the afternoon with
bases as low as 050. Winds will be breezy today with speeds of 10
to 15 knots and gusts up to 30 knots. Direction will be from the
NE (020-060) for most sites. Winds will begin to relax after dark.
There will also be a slight chance (10-20%) for -SHRA this
afternoon, but impacts would be minimal.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 538 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026
No fire weather concerns are forecast for the period. Highs will
be generally be below normal while afternoon humidity drops into
the 40s in the lowlands, becoming a bit drier by next
Tuesday. Winds will be strongest today, topping out around 15 to
20 MPH becoming light for Saturday. Winds will increase some again
for Sunday. Vent rates each afternoon will range good in the west
to poor in the east.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 56 77 57 79 / 10 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 50 71 50 72 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 53 74 54 77 / 20 0 0 0
Alamogordo 52 73 54 77 / 20 0 0 10
Cloudcroft 39 57 37 59 / 30 10 0 10
Truth or Consequences 53 75 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 49 71 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 55 75 55 77 / 20 0 0 0
Lordsburg 55 75 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 57 77 59 79 / 10 0 0 0
Dell City 55 75 54 78 / 10 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 57 79 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 50 70 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 57 78 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 55 75 55 78 / 20 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 57 77 58 79 / 20 0 0 0
Jornada Range 53 76 54 79 / 20 0 0 0
Hatch 54 78 55 80 / 20 0 0 0
Columbus 56 77 57 79 / 20 0 0 0
Orogrande 52 74 53 77 / 20 0 0 0
Mayhill 43 67 43 66 / 50 10 0 10
Mescalero 45 67 43 69 / 30 10 0 10
Timberon 41 63 41 65 / 20 10 0 10
Winston 40 70 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 51 74 55 76 / 10 0 0 0
Spaceport 50 75 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 34 74 44 73 / 10 0 0 0
Hurley 51 73 52 74 / 10 0 0 0
Cliff 48 79 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 45 76 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 52 72 53 73 / 10 0 0 0
Animas 55 75 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 53 74 55 76 / 20 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 54 73 56 75 / 0 10 0 0
Cloverdale 53 70 56 71 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Wind Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for East Central
Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500
Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown