Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
570 FXUS64 KEPZ 180006 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 506 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 501 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Cooler temperatures today but still slightly above normal for mid-November. Mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday. - Widespread rain showers and high elevation snow Wednesday into Thursday. Much cooler Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1015 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 Run-to-run model and ensemble consistency continues to be poor as the pattern and upper level flow regime transitions to a more active pattern across the Intermountain West through the period. The Pacific cool front will push west to east on Monday, with temperatures cooling 5-10 degrees and winds becoming west to northwest. Pleasant weather conditions expected on Tuesday as shortwave ridging builds in ahead of the next Pacific storm system. This next system will dive south/southeast across CA before pivoting east, Tuesday night in to Wednesday. As it does so, moisture will advect in from the southwest during the Tuesday evening/overnight into Wednesday morning timeframe. Upper level energy accompanying this tongue of moisture will promote isolated to scattered showers, with the slight chances of embedded thunder. With fresh 12Z high-res model data now in, went ahead and increased PoPs during the overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning timeframe across a good portion of the forecast area. The aforementioned upper level system will begin moving east/northeast across the Desert SW and Four Corners Region during the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Compared to 24 hours ago, model guidance has come to more of an agreement with timing of said system, with minor inconsistencies with regard to evolution and exact track. This time of the year, guidance has a hard time resolving these cutoff lows across the Desert SW. OOZ ECMWF data shows this taking a more easterly track due to the lack of strength in the overall system compared to GFS guidance. Whereas GFS guidance has this system slightly stronger with a stronger up level jet streak, allowing the system to negatively tilt and lift more northeasterly. With all that being said, looking at NBM date and the respected ensemble suites as a whole, confidence is medium to high that the forecast area will see precipitation associated with this system. Confidence in specific details, like rain/snow amounts remains lows. Speaking of snow, this system doesn`t have a lot of cold air associated with it throughout the column. Snow level will remain above 9,000 ft through majority of it;s passage. However, colder air will filter in on the backside with snow level dropping to around 7,000 ft just as the precipitation is ending. Elevations above 9,000 ft will likely see 1-2 inches of snow. After this system departs, shortwave ridging will build in during the Friday/Saturday timeframe ahead of the next Pacific storm system. This system will bring with it increased precipitation chances and breezy winds during the Sunday/Monday timeframe. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 501 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Our low end gusty winds this afternoon will drop off in the next few hours and we will have light southwest winds tonight into Tuesday morning. We have generally unlimited ceilings this afternoon, but the high clouds will be on the increase this evening and we will have high ceilings of BKN-OVC250 during the day on Tuesday. An approaching upper level storm system will bring even more clouds and rain chances to the region Tuesday night through Thursday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1015 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025 Pacific cold front will push west to east across the area on Monday with winds become west/northwesterly, remain breezy at 10-20 mph. Min RH values will continue to me of no concern with temperatures at or slightly below the seasonal average. Vent rates on Monday will be good. Unsettled weather will persist from midweek through the end of the work week and into the weekend as a series of storm systems traverse the Desert SW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 50 74 55 71 / 0 0 40 30 Sierra Blanca 44 73 49 69 / 0 0 20 20 Las Cruces 43 68 48 65 / 0 0 40 40 Alamogordo 43 69 48 66 / 0 0 40 30 Cloudcroft 32 50 35 45 / 0 0 40 30 Truth or Consequences 43 65 46 63 / 0 0 20 40 Silver City 40 60 42 55 / 0 10 40 50 Deming 43 70 48 67 / 0 0 30 40 Lordsburg 42 66 48 63 / 0 10 20 30 West El Paso Metro 51 70 56 68 / 0 0 40 30 Dell City 40 75 49 72 / 0 0 20 20 Fort Hancock 47 80 55 75 / 0 0 20 20 Loma Linda 46 67 50 63 / 0 0 40 30 Fabens 46 76 54 72 / 0 0 40 30 Santa Teresa 45 69 53 67 / 0 0 40 30 White Sands HQ 49 70 53 67 / 0 0 30 40 Jornada Range 43 68 48 65 / 0 0 30 40 Hatch 42 70 48 67 / 0 0 30 40 Columbus 46 71 52 69 / 0 0 30 30 Orogrande 42 68 49 65 / 0 0 40 30 Mayhill 36 63 40 58 / 0 0 40 30 Mescalero 35 60 38 57 / 0 0 50 30 Timberon 34 57 37 53 / 0 0 40 30 Winston 33 60 37 55 / 0 0 20 40 Hillsboro 42 65 45 62 / 0 0 40 50 Spaceport 40 66 45 63 / 0 0 30 40 Lake Roberts 35 60 38 55 / 0 10 40 60 Hurley 39 62 42 59 / 0 10 40 50 Cliff 38 66 44 63 / 0 10 20 50 Mule Creek 36 61 40 57 / 0 10 40 50 Faywood 42 61 45 58 / 0 10 40 50 Animas 44 68 48 65 / 0 0 20 30 Hachita 42 68 48 65 / 0 10 20 30 Antelope Wells 42 70 48 65 / 0 0 20 30 Cloverdale 44 62 46 59 / 0 0 30 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice