Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
227 FXUS64 KEPZ 301135 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 535 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 517 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026 - Light showers across the area with breezy winds Wednesday. - Mostly dry conditions with some breeziness Thursday through Saturday with low end chances for showers confined to the Sacramento Mtns each afternoon. - Pleasant, fall-like temperatures across the lowlands Wednesday but quickly rebounds to the mid to upper 70s Thursday and through the weekend. Temperatures will still be below normal for this time of year. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1039 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Rain and storms associated with the remnants of Polo has mostly exited the area but some lingering shower activity tonight is mostly associated with a large upper low. The center of the upper low will trek eastward through the day Wednesday but will only bring light showery activity to the area as much of the moisture will be pushed out which will also kill instability. In addition, winds will become slightly breezier than what we`ve been seeing with west winds of 15- 20 mph. Heading into Thursday, the upper low will be lifting out of the southwest CONUS and into the Plains but models are consistently trying to suggest some lingering energy behind the trough that may or may not pinch off into it`s own low. Not much to say regarding the weather right now heading into Friday and Saturday other than Friday will be slightly breezy, calm Saturday with chances for low end rain chances for the area mountains, more particularly for the Sacramento Mtns. More breezy afternoons ahead for Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026 VFR conditions are expected with variable low clouds around 050 (or lower) through the morning becoming FEW-SCT100 this afternoon and then clear overnight. Winds will be light and variable but will increase around 18z from the WSW (240-260) with speeds of 10 to 15 knots and gusts of 25 to 30 knots. ISO SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop this afternoon, mainly over NM, but chances for impacts at any site are less than 20%. FG/BR also cannot be ruled out this morning, but chance of formation is quite low. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 535 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026 No fire weather concerns are expected. Today will feature much more tranquil weather beneath sunny or mostly sunny skies. There will be enough lingering moisture for a few showers or thunderstorms, but most locations will stay dry. Winds will be breezy today, topping out around 15 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH. These winds will lead to good to very good vent rate categories. Afternoon humidity will be around 40%. Thursday and into the weekend will see lighter winds, warmer temperatures, and a bit lower RH values. There is a slight chance for precipitation to return Sunday or Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 55 77 59 77 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 52 74 53 71 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 51 74 54 74 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 52 73 54 74 / 10 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 37 55 38 53 / 20 10 20 20 Truth or Consequences 53 73 56 74 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 47 71 50 72 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 51 77 56 77 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 52 75 56 75 / 10 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 55 77 59 77 / 10 0 0 0 Dell City 54 76 57 73 / 10 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 57 82 59 80 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 50 69 54 68 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 56 79 59 78 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 75 56 76 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 54 75 58 77 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 51 75 54 76 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 53 77 55 79 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 55 77 57 77 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 51 72 53 73 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 43 66 45 62 / 10 10 30 30 Mescalero 42 65 44 64 / 20 10 20 10 Timberon 41 61 43 61 / 10 20 10 10 Winston 45 68 47 68 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 51 73 55 74 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 50 73 53 75 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 43 72 45 72 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 47 73 51 73 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 51 78 54 79 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 48 75 51 76 / 10 0 0 0 Faywood 49 71 54 72 / 10 0 0 0 Animas 52 75 56 76 / 10 0 0 0 Hachita 51 75 55 76 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 75 55 74 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 50 71 55 70 / 10 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown