Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
743
FXUS64 KEPZ 161149
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
549 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025
...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hottest temperatures of the year so far through Tuesday.
Lowland highs 103 to 108 degrees.
- Dry conditions prevailing this week, with rain chances
increasing next weekend.
- Critical fire weather conditions possible Tuesday afternoon
as breezy west winds develop with very dry and hot weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025
...TODAY...
Ongoing heat wave due to high pressure aloft centered over the
Sierra Madres, suppressing storm chances and causing daytime
temperatures to soar. El Paso reached a daily record 109 degrees
Sunday afternoon, and will easily reach 106-109 again today and
Tuesday. This will again threaten daily record highs. Most of the
New Mexico lowlands are again looking at 102-106 degrees.
Most areas will stay dry Monday afternoon as warm nose aloft from
high pressure suffocates any potential instability. Wouldn`t be
surprised to see some isolated showers form over the east slopes
of the Sacramento Mtns during the early afternoon and Hudspeth
County in the evening. These storms will be weak in intensity but
capable of gusty outflow winds and even more local blowing dust.
...TUESDAY...
Upper high sags southward on Tuesday in response to a passing
shortwave through the central Rockies. Lee surface low formation
will shift our winds to the west Tuesday afternoon, becoming
breezy (15 to 25 mph) midday. Main concern is critical fire
danger, especially over mountain forests due to the ongoing heat
and dryness. Lowland temperatures once again 102 to 108 degrees
with the hottest areas being El Paso and the Lower Valley.
...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A more consistent shift of wind signaling the start of the 2025
monsoon season is likely to begin later this week. Both GFS and
ECMWF show the upper high making a slow but steady shift eastward
and southeast flow locally becoming more established by Thursday.
This flow of deeper moisture will cause a steady ramping up of
rain chances into next weekend. It will also promote a steady
cooling trend, bringing temperatures closer to normal by the end
of the week (lowland highs 95 to 100). Lowland rain chances will
remain quite low until at least next Saturday, where precipitation
water (PW) reaches 0.9", but we should see mountain coverage
increase a little bit each afternoon.
...NEXT WEEK...
Favorable fetch of moisture for storm chances next week, according
to the long term models. Best rain chances look to be Sunday
through next Tuesday. Near normal temperatures and scattered
afternoon thunderstorms in the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025
VFR conditions are expected with SKC-SCT150/250. With that said,
the OVC035 at DMN is likely smoke as satellite products show
otherwise clear skies with lofted smoke observed at the forecast
office west of ELP. Light winds will become southwesterly this
afternoon with speeds topping out around 10 knots with a few gusts
to 20 knots. This will shift the smoke away from DMN, LRU, and
ELP, but will carry elevated smoke toward TCS. Winds will decrease
after dark allowing elevated smoke to move back toward DMN, LRU,
and ELP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 539 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Very hot and very dry conditions are expected today as lowland
highs climb above 100 with min RH values falling well into the
single digits. Enough moisture will linger across the Sacramento
Mountains and Hudspeth County for an outside shot at a shower or
thunderstorm with gusty outflow winds the main concern. Otherwise,
winds will generally top out around 10 to 15 MPH with some gusts
to 25 MPH. Winds will increase for Tuesday while min RH values
remain very low. This will create near critical to low-end
critical fire conditions as wind speeds top out around 20 MPH,
combining with min RH values near 5% and very dry fuels. For the
rest of the week, temperatures will slowly cool while moisture
slowly increases. Winds will top out around 10 MPH each afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 108 78 108 76 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 100 70 102 68 / 10 10 0 0
Las Cruces 104 70 102 67 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 104 70 104 67 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 81 57 80 53 / 10 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 104 72 103 70 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 97 67 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 107 69 104 65 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 103 67 100 64 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 105 78 104 75 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 104 70 106 68 / 10 10 0 0
Fort Hancock 108 74 109 72 / 10 10 0 0
Loma Linda 99 72 99 70 / 10 10 0 0
Fabens 107 72 107 72 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 104 72 103 71 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 105 79 104 75 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 104 68 103 64 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 106 69 104 65 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 107 75 104 72 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 102 71 102 68 / 10 0 0 0
Mayhill 92 62 92 57 / 20 0 0 0
Mescalero 92 61 91 57 / 10 0 0 0
Timberon 89 60 89 56 / 10 0 0 0
Winston 96 60 94 55 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 102 69 100 65 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 103 67 102 63 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 99 59 94 54 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 101 65 97 62 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 104 64 99 60 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 99 63 95 60 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 100 69 97 65 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 104 68 102 65 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 103 68 101 65 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 103 69 101 66 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 98 67 96 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Western El Paso County.
NM...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for Central Grant
County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest
Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central
Tularosa Basin/White Sands.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...34-Brown