Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
362 FXUS64 KEPZ 161737 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1107 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Available monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will lead to daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of the Divide through Wednesday then across the Borderland for the end of the week. -Impacts from storms include periods of heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding, mainly small hail, gusty outflow winds, and areas blowing dust. - Near normal high temperatures each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1107 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Aforementioned in previous forecast discussions, the upper level flow regime will be fairly disorganized at the beginning of the forecast period. Upper level jet stream and storm track remains well to the north over Canada, as expected for this time of the year. Regionally, upper level cutoff low over Baja and disorganized upper level high over the Gulf Coast states will keep south/southeasterly flow across the area. Meaning sufficient, slightly above average low level moisture overlaying the Borderland Region. That being said, with very little forcing and kinematics to offer over southern NM and west TX, afternoon/evening shower and storm chances will isolated to scattered in nature for today. Local/mesoscale orographic forces will promote early afternoon convection over the Sacramento Mtns and Gila Region. The greatest chances for storms will be focused along and west of the Divide where slightly better forcing and above average moisture content resides. That said, like previous days the threat of flash flooding will be possible, especially in an around recent burn scars. As the afternoon/evening progresses, outflow interactions across the desert lowlands will induce generally isolated convection, focused west of the RGV. Brief heavy rain, gusty outflow winds, and pockets of blowing dust will be the primary threats. High temperatures this afternoon will top out in the middle to upper 90s across the desert lowlands. Another generally quiet day in terms of thunderstorm activity for tomorrow. The Monsoonal moisture plume will push slightly to the east, focusing over areas along and east of the RGV, promoting isolated to scattered afternoon/evening storm activity. High temperatures on Thursday will be very similar to Wednesday. On Friday, high pressure aloft over the Deep South will expand westward, pushing the Monsoonal moisture plume back to the west. With the focus for storm activity along and west of the RGV and Sacramento Mtns. Again, if any storms develops in the vicinity of recent burn scars, flash flooding will be possible. The Monsoonal moisture fetch looks to remain in the vicinity of the Borderland Region heading into the weekend and into next week. Daily chances of thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the period. Temperatures will remain at or slightly above the seasonal average. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period with skies currently SKC to FEW. Skies will become SCT at 10-15 kft during the afternoon with convection over the mountains. Storm chances are favored over western portions of the area, generally along and west of the Divide. Outflow boundary interactions could spark ISO TS during the late afternoon/early evening across the desert lowlands with low probability of direct impacts to area terminals. However, gusty winds of VRB20-35KT will be the primary threat with possibility of BLDU along and behind any outflow boundaries. Outside of outflow boundary winds, prevailing winds will be W/SW at 7-15 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1107 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Sufficient Monsoonal moisture remains in place across the area through the period with daily chances of showers/storms. The greatest focus for activity will shift each day, especially for Thursday and Friday. The focus for convection for today will be west of the RGV, east of the RGV on Thursday and then again back to the west on Friday. With that being said, slight chances will exist areawide Thursday and Friday. Min RH values will be above critical thresholds areawide through the period with high temperatures near normal. Winds will be generally light at 7-15 mph. However, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible in the vicinity of developing thunderstorms. Slow storm motion will promote increasing threats for flashing flooding, especially in and around recent burn scars. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 77 97 77 96 / 20 20 50 40 Sierra Blanca 69 89 69 90 / 20 60 50 50 Las Cruces 70 94 70 93 / 30 20 50 40 Alamogordo 70 95 70 93 / 10 30 30 50 Cloudcroft 52 71 52 69 / 10 60 30 80 Truth or Consequences 70 94 70 93 / 30 40 50 60 Silver City 61 85 63 86 / 50 60 60 80 Deming 70 96 71 96 / 40 30 60 50 Lordsburg 66 91 68 93 / 50 50 60 60 West El Paso Metro 75 95 76 95 / 20 20 50 40 Dell City 72 95 72 94 / 10 30 20 30 Fort Hancock 76 96 76 97 / 30 50 50 50 Loma Linda 67 89 69 88 / 10 30 40 50 Fabens 74 96 74 96 / 20 20 40 30 Santa Teresa 72 94 74 94 / 30 20 60 40 White Sands HQ 74 95 74 93 / 20 30 50 60 Jornada Range 69 94 70 93 / 20 40 50 60 Hatch 70 96 71 96 / 30 30 60 60 Columbus 73 95 74 96 / 40 20 60 40 Orogrande 70 93 71 91 / 10 30 30 50 Mayhill 58 81 57 79 / 10 60 30 70 Mescalero 58 82 57 81 / 10 60 40 80 Timberon 57 80 56 78 / 10 50 30 70 Winston 57 85 58 85 / 40 60 50 80 Hillsboro 65 93 65 92 / 40 50 60 60 Spaceport 67 94 69 93 / 20 40 50 60 Lake Roberts 55 86 57 87 / 60 70 60 80 Hurley 63 89 63 89 / 50 60 50 70 Cliff 63 92 66 94 / 60 60 50 70 Mule Creek 60 87 63 91 / 70 60 50 60 Faywood 64 89 66 89 / 40 50 60 70 Animas 67 91 68 93 / 50 50 60 70 Hachita 67 91 68 93 / 50 40 60 60 Antelope Wells 66 90 68 91 / 60 50 60 70 Cloverdale 62 84 65 87 / 60 60 60 80 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers