Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
542
FXUS64 KEPZ 300440
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1040 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1039 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026
- Light showers across the area with breezy winds Wednesday.
- Mostly dry conditions with some breeziness Thursday through Saturday
with low end chances for showers confined to the Sacramento
Mtns each afternoon.
- Pleasant, fall-like temperatures across the lowlands Wednesday but
quickly rebounds to the mid to upper 70s Thursday and through
the weekend. Temperatures will still be below normal for this
time of year.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1039 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Rain and storms associated with the remnants of Polo has mostly
exited the area but some lingering shower activity tonight is mostly
associated with a large upper low. The center of the upper low will
trek eastward through the day Wednesday but will only bring light
showery activity to the area as much of the moisture will be pushed
out which will also kill instability. In addition, winds will become
slightly breezier than what we`ve been seeing with west winds of 15-
20 mph. Heading into Thursday, the upper low will be lifting out of
the southwest CONUS and into the Plains but models are consistently
trying to suggest some lingering energy behind the trough that may
or may not pinch off into it`s own low. Not much to say regarding
the weather right now heading into Friday and Saturday other than
Friday will be slightly breezy, calm Saturday with chances for low
end rain chances for the area mountains, more particularly for the
Sacramento Mtns. More breezy afternoons ahead for Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Much quieter conditions starting tonight and through the TAF period.
Showers will continue to push out of the area tonight and diminish.
Light showers possible tomorrow afternoon at all terminals coupled
with some breeziness.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 925 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Heavy rain will keep fire concerns low for today. Rain will be
seen all across the region as tropical moisture from Polo`s
remnants, as well as a Pacific low over Nevada, continues to
funnel in showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain is expected to
taper off around midnight, but some lingering showers are possible
in the Gila Wednesday morning. Conditions for Thursday to
Saturday should be mainly dry.
Lowland Min RHs today will range from 60-80%, and mountain Min RHs
90-100%. Drier air on Wednesday will dip Min RHs in the lowlands
to 40-50% and 70-85% in the mountains. Min RHs from Thursday into
the weekend will range from 35-50% in the lowlands and 60-70% in
the mountains.
Breezy 20 ft south-southwesterly winds at 10-20 mph (gusts up to
30 mph east of the Rio Grande) will keep ventilation rates mainly
Poor today before improving to Good tomorrow as the mixing heights
increase to 5500-7000 feet from western New Mexico to eastern New
Mexico and far West Texas on Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 60 73 55 77 / 90 10 10 0
Sierra Blanca 59 73 52 74 / 80 20 0 0
Las Cruces 56 69 51 74 / 100 20 10 0
Alamogordo 57 70 52 73 / 100 20 10 10
Cloudcroft 42 49 37 55 / 100 30 20 10
Truth or Consequences 54 70 53 73 / 100 20 10 0
Silver City 50 62 47 71 / 100 30 10 0
Deming 54 71 51 77 / 100 20 10 0
Lordsburg 53 68 52 75 / 100 20 10 0
West El Paso Metro 60 73 55 77 / 90 10 10 0
Dell City 62 75 54 76 / 90 10 10 0
Fort Hancock 63 81 57 82 / 70 10 10 0
Loma Linda 56 66 50 69 / 90 10 10 0
Fabens 62 77 56 79 / 70 10 10 0
Santa Teresa 58 71 53 75 / 90 10 10 0
White Sands HQ 59 71 54 75 / 90 20 10 0
Jornada Range 56 69 51 75 / 100 20 10 0
Hatch 56 72 53 77 / 100 20 10 0
Columbus 57 73 55 77 / 90 10 10 0
Orogrande 57 69 51 72 / 100 20 10 0
Mayhill 47 63 43 66 / 100 20 10 10
Mescalero 47 59 42 65 / 100 30 20 10
Timberon 48 57 41 61 / 100 20 10 20
Winston 46 64 45 68 / 100 20 10 0
Hillsboro 53 70 51 73 / 100 20 10 0
Spaceport 54 70 50 73 / 100 20 10 0
Lake Roberts 47 61 43 72 / 100 30 10 0
Hurley 51 65 47 73 / 100 20 10 0
Cliff 54 69 51 78 / 100 40 10 0
Mule Creek 50 64 48 75 / 100 50 10 0
Faywood 52 65 49 71 / 90 20 10 0
Animas 55 71 52 75 / 90 20 10 0
Hachita 53 70 51 75 / 70 20 10 0
Antelope Wells 54 71 51 75 / 80 10 10 0
Cloverdale 52 65 50 71 / 90 10 10 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for Eastern/Central El Paso
County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio
Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.
NM...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for Central Grant
County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the
Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento
Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast
Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the
Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa
Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...37-Slusher