Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
516 FXUS64 KEPZ 190548 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1048 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1033 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 - Rain showers persist Wednesday morning transitioning into thunderstorms by the afternoon. Isolated strong to severe storms possible with hail and gusty outflow winds. - Additional steadier rain will sweep across the area Wednesday night into Thursday, with breezy conditions and another round of thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon. - Snow levels will remain above 10,000 feet for most of the event, falling as low as 8000 feet Thursday morning as precipitation becomes more scattered. - Another storm system will bring precipitation to the area over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 943 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 The low pressure system that will bring the Borderland rain showers and high elevation mountain snow Wed/Thu is currently sitting over SoCal and will progress eastward. Models are suggesting pretty good areawide coverage for rain showers on Wednesday. Instability values are lackluster with values generally below 500 J/kg, but plenty of shear will be around (0-6km shear of 50-75kt). Overnight tonight and into the morning hours Wednesday we can expect rain showers but turns more convective as we head into the afternoon hours. The strongest storms should be isolated in nature but could see some low topped supercells bringing the threat of gusty outflow winds and hail. Moderate rainfall possible as well but thankfully the added shear will allow for these storms to move off an area quickly before causing any flooding issues. However, if storms begin back building over an area - that could become an issue. Snow levels will be quite high (above 9500`) on Wednesday but looks like snow levels start to crash late Wednesday/early Thursday which would bring some high elevation snow. Snow levels start at around 9000` Wednesday evening but drop to around 8000` in the Gila region. By late Thursday night snow levels get to around 7000` but much of the precipitation has moved out of the area. Current snow totals look light with totals anywhere from just a coating to an inch or two on the highest elevations of the Black Range. The Sacramento Mtns will see light totals as well (a coating to an inch or so possible). In addition to the snow, rain chances look to persist late Wednesday and into Thursday for much of the area. Similar environment expected Thursday to what we`ll see Wednesday where there`s plenty of shear to work with but not much instability, and instability values look just a bit less than Wednesday but similar hazards can be expected. The system looks to move out late Thursday which may keep some lingering light showers behind the system but Friday looks much quieter with light winds, dry conditions, and below normal temperatures. Our next system arrives late Saturday bringing precipitation chances by late evening Saturday. This second system looks to take a similar trajectory in the way it makes it`s way onshore over SoCal/northern Baja and progresses eastward over central NM. Another round of lowland rain showers and light mountain snowfall. Snow totals look even less impressive right now compared to the first system. Looking like a coating to an inch of snow is possible through the day Sunday and into Monday for the area mountains. The system looks to exit late Monday and early Tuesday bringing another break through the day Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 Rain is continuing to push in and will be seen over the next several hours at all terminals. Rain showers will persist overnight and into tomorrow morning. Best coverage for rain will be tonight but looks like we have a bit of a break mid morning with VCSH. Thunderstorms expected to pop up early afternoon along and west of the Continental Divide but hit and miss thunderstorms possible for all terminals throughout the afternoon and early evening. Hail, gusty outflow winds, and quick hitting heavy rainfall will all be possible with the strongest storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 Minimal fire weather concerns through the week as a Pacific system is set to bring widespread precipitation to the region tonight into Thursday. Snow levels will mainly stay at or above 10,000 for much of the precip period, but may fall down to around 8000-9000 feet Thursday morning as precip becomes more scattered. Storm total rainfall amounts over 1 inch in the Gila region and Sacramento Mountains will be common, and temperatures will cool as well. Another system is set to bring more precipitation this weekend, and may take a path that is more favorable for high elevation snow. Breezy west winds on Thursday afternoon will be mitigated by high humidity values, with min RH in the 40 to 60 percent range even in the lowlands. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 69 51 64 42 / 10 70 40 80 Sierra Blanca 66 47 62 35 / 0 20 10 50 Las Cruces 64 46 58 33 / 10 70 50 90 Alamogordo 65 45 57 32 / 0 70 60 80 Cloudcroft 44 30 38 22 / 0 70 60 80 Truth or Consequences 63 46 56 35 / 10 50 50 90 Silver City 56 39 47 30 / 10 70 70 90 Deming 67 45 59 32 / 10 60 60 90 Lordsburg 64 44 55 32 / 20 50 50 90 West El Paso Metro 67 52 61 42 / 10 70 40 80 Dell City 69 46 64 35 / 0 40 20 50 Fort Hancock 72 51 69 39 / 0 30 20 60 Loma Linda 61 46 55 36 / 0 60 40 70 Fabens 70 51 65 38 / 10 60 30 70 Santa Teresa 66 50 59 37 / 10 70 40 80 White Sands HQ 67 50 59 40 / 0 70 50 80 Jornada Range 66 45 57 31 / 10 60 50 90 Hatch 68 48 60 32 / 10 60 60 90 Columbus 69 49 61 37 / 10 50 50 80 Orogrande 65 47 57 33 / 10 70 50 80 Mayhill 57 37 50 27 / 0 60 50 70 Mescalero 56 33 49 25 / 0 60 60 80 Timberon 53 33 46 23 / 0 70 70 80 Winston 56 35 48 23 / 0 60 50 90 Hillsboro 62 42 55 32 / 10 60 60 90 Spaceport 64 44 57 29 / 10 60 50 90 Lake Roberts 56 35 47 25 / 10 70 70 90 Hurley 59 40 52 29 / 10 70 70 90 Cliff 63 42 54 30 / 10 70 60 90 Mule Creek 59 39 49 28 / 20 70 70 90 Faywood 59 42 51 32 / 10 70 70 90 Animas 66 45 57 33 / 10 50 40 90 Hachita 66 45 56 31 / 10 50 50 90 Antelope Wells 67 44 56 32 / 0 40 30 80 Cloverdale 59 42 49 35 / 10 50 50 80 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher