071
FXUS64 KEPZ 142314
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
514 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 514 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

 - A pattern shift across the region will bring steadily cooling
   temperatures, increasing moisture, and increasing thunderstorm
   coverage over the next several days.

 - The threat of localized flash flooding will spread from
   southwestern New Mexico on Tuesday, across the wider area
   Wednesday and Thursday.

 - High temperatures will drop into the 80s across the lowlands by
   Wednesday or Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

After nearly hitting 100F at the El Paso Airport on both Friday
and Saturday we are finally seeing a pattern change to not as hot
(too early to call it cooler), with a good chance for rain.
Currently the upper level ridge that has kept us dry and hot this
Summer has moved off and is centered over the southeast U.S. The
circulation around the high will pull up moisture from northern
Mexico. This increased moisture will help fuel scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms this evening through much of the coming
week. Our high temperatures each day will be steadily falling so
that by Thursday and Friday we will have high temperatures near or
(gasp) a little below average. Seasonal temperatures look to
continue into the coming weekend. These lower high temperatures
will give the lowlands highs in the 80`s for Thursday into the
weekend, which we have not seen consistently since early June.

The increased moisture will give us better rain chances, but it
will also increase the risk for flash flooding. Precipitable water
values (PW`s) will increase into the range of 1.1 to 1.3 which is
well above average for this time of year. For now the main threat
for flooding will be in the Gila Region on Tuesday, but it may
expand to include locations west of the Rio Grande on Wednesday
and across the whole area on Thursday. The chances for rain
continue into Saturday. The forecast beyond Saturday is a little
more in doubt as the extended GFS dries us out, while the extended
ECMWF continues the influx and moisture and rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

SCT090 SCT-BKN250. Scattered OVC060CB 4-6SM TSRA, mainly west of
the RG Valley, with the storms more isolated RG Valley east. Gusty
winds of 35-45 knots near storms, along with small hail. A few
storms could last until around 10Z. All TAF sites have a chance of
thunderstorms tonight, with KLRU/KELP chances later this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1218 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

We have seen a pattern switch away from warm/hot and dry weather
to not as hot with better chances for rain. The best chances for
rain will be west of the Rio Grande over the next several days
with the threat of flooding a possibility in the Gila Region. Min
RH`s for Tuesday through the end of the week will be at or above
30% area wide, with excellent RH recoveries at night. Surface
winds will stay well below critical values. We could see some
gusty outflow winds especially tonight from area thunderstorms.
Ventilation rates the next couple of days looks fair to good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71  94  70  91 /  30  10  70  40
Sierra Blanca            66  92  64  90 /  20  30  50  30
Las Cruces               66  91  65  89 /  40  20  70  50
Alamogordo               66  91  66  90 /  50  20  60  60
Cloudcroft               51  69  49  67 /  40  50  60  80
Truth or Consequences    66  87  66  85 /  60  40  60  70
Silver City              61  83  60  80 /  40  60  70  80
Deming                   66  91  64  88 /  50  20  60  50
Lordsburg                67  87  66  84 /  50  30  70  70
West El Paso Metro       70  93  70  90 /  30  10  70  40
Dell City                69  96  67  93 /  10  20  60  40
Fort Hancock             72  99  71  97 /  30  30  60  40
Loma Linda               66  87  65  85 /  30  10  60  40
Fabens                   70  95  69  93 /  30  10  70  40
Santa Teresa             68  92  67  89 /  30  10  70  40
White Sands HQ           71  92  70  90 /  40  30  70  50
Jornada Range            66  91  65  88 /  50  30  60  60
Hatch                    67  92  66  90 /  40  40  70  60
Columbus                 70  92  68  89 /  50  20  70  40
Orogrande                65  90  65  89 /  30  20  70  60
Mayhill                  57  82  55  79 /  30  70  50  80
Mescalero                55  80  53  78 /  50  50  60  90
Timberon                 54  79  53  77 /  20  30  60  70
Winston                  56  79  56  76 /  40  80  50  90
Hillsboro                66  86  65  84 /  50  50  70  70
Spaceport                64  89  64  87 /  60  30  60  60
Lake Roberts             56  82  56  79 /  40  70  60  90
Hurley                   62  85  61  82 /  40  50  70  70
Cliff                    64  89  64  86 /  40  50  70  90
Mule Creek               62  84  62  81 /  40  40  70  80
Faywood                  64  85  63  82 /  40  50  70  70
Animas                   67  88  66  85 /  60  40  70  80
Hachita                  66  88  64  85 /  50  40  70  60
Antelope Wells           66  88  64  85 /  50  50  70  70
Cloverdale               63  82  62  81 /  50  50  70  80

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for
     Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila
     Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
     Highlands/Black Range-Upper Gila River Valley.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner