188
FXUS64 KEPZ 312345
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
545 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 540 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

 - Extremely hot temperatures today with triple digits common
   across the desert lowlands. Forecast high of 108F for El Paso,
   106F for Las Cruces, and 109F to 110F in the Lower Valley.

 - Scattered strong to severe storms possible Saturday afternoon
   and evening with damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and flash
   flooding possible.

 - Highs will be not as hot over the weekend, but triple digits
   return early next week. Expect continued daily thunderstorm
   chances mainly in area mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

One more day (for now) of hot weather. High temperatures this
afternoon will continue to run at least 10 degrees above average.
But the upper level ridge that has brought us the hot weather is
drifting off to our west this afternoon and that will allow a
little moisture to work in from the north to give us a little
better rain chances this afternoon and evening. Then on Saturday
that is when things start to get interesting.

Several factors are coming together to increase the risk for
strong thunderstorms and heavy rain on Saturday. First the upper
level ridge will be centered over northern Arizona. This will give
us a north flow aloft. Anytime you get north (or south) flow it
raises the concerns for training (one storm after another) storms
especially in the mountains. At the surface we will have a
washed out cold front just to our east which could help with some
storm development, but the better storm maker, will be a short
wave trough, that will drop south out of Colorado Saturday
evening. Precipitable water values (PW`s) will be in the 1.2 to
1.4 inches range, which is good but not great for flash flooding.
Again though I think we will see multiple storms develop in the
mountains and then drop south. One storm will pop-up and drop 0.50
of rain and then move south, followed by another storm, followed
by another storm. The Flood Watch includes all of Otero and El
Paso Counties and the western portion of Hudspeth County as storms
form in the Sacs they will drop south into the lowlands. There is
some indication that we may need to extended the Flood Watch into
Dona Ana County as the mountains to the north of and east of Las
Cruces may help enhance some of rainfall in that county. In
addition to the heavy rain threat, we will see the potential for a
few strong to sever thunderstorms. They main threats will be
large hail and strong outflow winds.

For Sunday, the upper level ridge will be in about the same place,
but we will have drier and more stable air move into the region
so the rain threat will be lower. For Monday and Tuesday, the
upper level ridge will be centered over central Arizona. This
elongated ridge will allow some moisture to be pulled in from the
east so we will see a little better chances for rain for the start
of next week. The upper level ridge won`t move much for next
week, so we will continue to see a slight chance for afternoon
evening thunderstorms, mainly confined in area mountains.

Looking at our high temperatures, today looks to be the last for
our really hot weather. For Saturday and Sunday, we will see high
temperatures still running a few degrees above average, which may
allow a few locations to hit 100, but most locations will stay in
the mid to upper 90`s. With the upper level dropping a little
further south into central Arizona for the start of next week,
that will allow our high temperatures to creep a few degrees
higher. So triple digit highs are back in the forecast for much of
the lowlands for next week, though it does not look to be as hot
as this week has been.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continuing to push north to south this
afternoon. KELP has stayed dry thus far (as of around 5:30PM) but
this line of storms will push into this area within the next hour
or two which will bring the possibility of gusty outflow winds and
some reductions in visibility due to storms. Showery activity
possible around 05Z through the overnight hours which may give all
terminals a chance of rain. Tomorrow will feature a very active
thunderstorm day where all terminals have a chance to see a
thunderstorm. Some isolated storms could become severe due to
gusty outflow winds upwards of around 60 mph possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Very hot conditions are expected in the lowlands today with many
locations seeing one of the hottest days of the year, so far.
Afternoon RH values will dip into the mid to upper teens in the
lowlands. Winds will be light with good vent categories. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the mountains
this afternoon before pushing into the lowlands late afternoon
into the evening. Saturday will not be as hot with higher
afternoon humidity along with more scattered showers and
thunderstorms. On Sunday, drier and warmer conditions will return
to most of the area. Thunderstorm chances will largely be held to
the mountains and areas west of the Rio Grande.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  78  99  74  98 /  40  30  60  10
Sierra Blanca            70  94  66  93 /  10  30  50  10
Las Cruces               73  98  68  96 /  40  20  60   0
Alamogordo               71  97  67  95 /  50  50  70  10
Cloudcroft               52  73  50  72 /  50  80  80  40
Truth or Consequences    74  98  70  97 /  20  20  40   0
Silver City              67  92  63  90 /  30  60  30  40
Deming                   75  99  69  98 /  30  20  40   0
Lordsburg                73  99  70  97 /  10  40  40  10
West El Paso Metro       79  99  75  97 /  40  30  60  10
Dell City                73  97  70  97 /  20  30  50  10
Fort Hancock             78 102  74 100 /  20  30  50  10
Loma Linda               71  91  67  90 /  40  30  60  10
Fabens                   77 100  73  99 /  30  30  60  10
Santa Teresa             75  97  72  96 /  40  20  60  10
White Sands HQ           77  98  72  97 /  50  40  80  10
Jornada Range            74  98  69  96 /  50  30  60  10
Hatch                    74 102  69 100 /  30  30  50   0
Columbus                 77 100  73  98 /  30  10  50   0
Orogrande                71  95  68  94 /  50  30  70  10
Mayhill                  58  83  56  84 /  40  80  70  20
Mescalero                57  84  55  83 /  60  80  80  30
Timberon                 56  82  54  81 /  60  80  70  30
Winston                  62  90  59  89 /  20  60  30  20
Hillsboro                70  97  65  96 /  20  40  40  10
Spaceport                71  98  67  96 /  40  30  50   0
Lake Roberts             61  92  58  91 /  20  70  30  50
Hurley                   68  94  64  93 /  30  60  30  20
Cliff                    69  99  67  98 /  20  50  20  40
Mule Creek               67  95  65  94 /  20  40  20  20
Faywood                  70  93  66  92 /  30  50  40  10
Animas                   74 100  70  98 /  10  30  60   0
Hachita                  73  98  68  96 /  20  20  60   0
Antelope Wells           73  97  69  96 /  20  20  60  10
Cloverdale               70  94  66  92 /  10  30  60  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El
     Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio
     Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
     Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-
     Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.

     Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
     Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Central
     Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-
     Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero
     Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern
     Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila
     Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
     Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River
     Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

     Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for
     East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento
     Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West
     Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento
     Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher