Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
098 FXUS64 KEPZ 021709 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1109 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1108 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Isolated thunderstorm chances through through Thursday, mostly confined to mountain areas. - High temperatures through Thursday will remain above average. - Rainfall chances start to return for Friday into Saturday as we get some tropical moisture returning from the south. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1108 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Some drier air is moving into the region with dew points down into the upper 40s to lower 50s for much of the CWA. The region for the next couple of days will remain under the influence of a very elongated/amplified upper ridge extending from the Pacific NW through the Borderland. There is just a small amount of instability along the northern edge of the CWA each afternoon and there will be some isolated storms that develop in Catron and Lincoln counties that try to make it into northern Grant and Otero counties the next couple of afternoons, so kept in the isolated PoPs. Temperatures with the drier air and upper ridge will warm back up above normal with most of the lowlands into the lower to mid 90s. As we head into late Thu into Sat, we are watching what will be the remnants of Lorena. Operational GFS continues to be the most bullish of all the models, but quick look at 12Z run shows a little slow down but heavier rain from SW to NE CWA. GFS ensembles are still not in great agreement with this. EC when looking at moisture fields, does have a similar path of moisture breaking off from the tropical system, but not nearly as optimistic on QPF totals. It does seem like the upper pattern would eventually support at least some moisture moving into the area and think even with the latest slowdown of the GFS, that it may still be too fast. For now NBM PoPs seem reasonable, but did raise about 10 percent going into Sat with a slower storm progression. For now didn`t mess with QPF which is ranges from about a third of an inch over eastern Hudspeth county to around an inch in the NM Bootheel and in the Sacs. Widespread half inch amounts over the remaining lowland areas. Temperatures will cool down with plenty of cloud cover expected, but not going as low as MEX guidance which has a high of 76 Fri and 79 Sat in ELP. Again, NBM looked reasonable with mainly lower to mid 80s. Upper ridge starts to rebuild off to the west and push into the area by early next week. This brings a return to mainly dry conditions to the area and temperatures rebounding back into the lower to mid 90s for the lowlands. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1108 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 P6SM FEW-SCT080-100 SCT200-250 though the early evening then skies becoming SKC-FEW200-250. Winds will be east to southeast AOB 12KTS through the afternoon then becoming variable under 6KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1108 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Above normal temperatures can be expected through Thursday with just a few isolated thunderstorms in the higher terrain with limited moisture to work with. Min RH`s the next couple of days will be falling into the mid teens to mid 20s. Going into the end of the week, there will be some remnant tropical moisture that moves up into the region, still some question as to how much will make it up this way. There will be cool down in temperatures and rising RH`s. Temperatures warm and RH`s dry out by early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 69 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 59 89 65 90 / 0 10 0 0 Las Cruces 62 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 62 91 67 91 / 0 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 46 68 50 69 / 0 20 0 10 Truth or Consequences 62 90 65 90 / 0 10 0 0 Silver City 58 84 62 83 / 0 10 0 20 Deming 62 92 65 92 / 0 0 0 10 Lordsburg 63 90 65 86 / 0 10 0 20 West El Paso Metro 68 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 60 92 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 65 93 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 61 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 64 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 64 90 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 65 92 70 92 / 0 10 0 0 Jornada Range 60 91 67 90 / 0 10 0 0 Hatch 62 93 65 93 / 0 10 0 0 Columbus 64 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 10 Orogrande 61 89 65 90 / 0 10 0 0 Mayhill 50 79 56 80 / 0 20 0 10 Mescalero 50 80 55 81 / 0 20 0 10 Timberon 46 77 54 78 / 0 10 0 0 Winston 51 83 54 82 / 10 10 0 10 Hillsboro 59 89 62 90 / 0 10 0 10 Spaceport 61 91 64 90 / 0 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 49 85 53 84 / 0 20 0 20 Hurley 58 87 61 85 / 0 10 0 10 Cliff 55 91 61 88 / 10 10 10 20 Mule Creek 53 87 56 83 / 10 10 10 20 Faywood 59 86 63 85 / 0 10 0 10 Animas 61 90 63 85 / 0 10 10 30 Hachita 61 89 65 88 / 0 0 0 20 Antelope Wells 60 88 63 84 / 0 10 0 20 Cloverdale 59 84 62 80 / 10 10 10 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz