Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
124 FXUS64 KEPZ 161146 AAA AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 446 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 445 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Pacific low brings breezy southwest winds on Sunday. Gusts up to 40 mph possible in the afternoon. - Cooler temperatures Monday into next week behind a Pacific cold front, with scattered rain showers and high elevation snow possible Wednesday into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 Sunday will signal a change in the ongoing warm and dry weather pattern across the borderland. Pacific closed low currently off the southern California coast will move ashore on Sunday, progressing east across the Great Basin. Jet streak well ahead of the trough axis suggests the system will take a northerly trajectory and open into a wave during this timeframe. Shortwave at the base of the system may clip western NM with some rain showers Sunday afternoon, but areas east of the Continental Divide will remain dry with temperatures still above normal (lowland highs in the mid-to-upper 70s). The more impactful feature with this system will be the pre- frontal winds. Breezy conditions expected area wide Sunday afternoon, with southwest winds 15 to 25 mph across Southern New Mexico and far west Texas. New Mexico`s I-10/I-25 corridors could see gusts as high as 40 mph, with patchy blowing dust. Pacific cool front moves through on Monday, resulting in a subtle 5-10 degrees cool down. We`ll still be low-end breezy Monday afternoon with winds out of the west 10 to 20 mph. Mild conditions on Tuesday, with lowland highs closer to normal in the upper 60`s/lower 70`s. Cloud coverage will be increasing during this period with rain showers possible along the AZ/NM state line Tuesday night into Wednesday. GFS and ECMWF deterministic solutions in good agreement for our next widespread precipitation chance. Closed low pressure system slowly tracks across the Southwest U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, allowing for rain showers (and high elevation >7500 feet snow). Best chance for precipitation looks to be the Wednesday night into Thursday morning timeframe. 48-hour QPF totals in the 0.10-0.25" range is currently the forecast for the El Paso metro and other lowland locations. Mountain locations like Cloudcroft and Emory Pass could see some snow, but generally light accumulations being forecast at this time. Friday into next weekend look dry and cool. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 Upper trough moving into the region will allow swly winds to become gusty in the aftn. Gusts up to 25 kts will be commonplace, with lcl gusts to 30 kts favoring srn NM terminals. Patchy BLDU will be possible but uncertainty remains on whether it impact terminals, particularly KDMN. Winds will diminish aft 17/05Z areawide. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 445 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 A trough swinging into the Great Basin will bring gusty winds in the afternoon, particularly across south-central New Mexico zones. Southwest gusts of 35 mph will be favored across the high terrain, with gusts between 25 and 30 mph expected across much of the lowlands. An injection of moisture will accompany the system, with minRH values seeing increases around 10 to 20 percent compared to Saturday`s readings. This will bring all lowland zones above 25 percent, with the high terrain settling around the 35 to 50 percent range. Localized light showers may crop up in the afternoon, but wetting rainfall is not expected. Brisk west winds will persist on Monday with the frontal passage, but will be decently reduced compared to Sunday. Unsettled weather will persist from midweek through the end of the work week as another system tours the Desert Southwest. Precipitation will favor western zones on Tuesday, spreading eastward through the forecast area into Wednesday and Thursday. Cooling temperatures will allow for light snowfall accumulations above 7000 ft. Rainfall totals across the lower elevations are likely to also remain light, ranging from a trace to 0.40 in. Uncertainty lies in the wind speeds as this system makes its approach. Should the current model trends verify, gusty southwest winds could accompany the system Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 51 71 49 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 70 44 70 44 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 67 44 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 68 44 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 47 33 46 32 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 67 44 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 60 39 58 38 / 10 10 0 0 Deming 70 44 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 65 41 64 43 / 10 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 70 52 68 50 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 72 42 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 77 47 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 65 46 63 44 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 74 47 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 69 46 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 70 49 68 48 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 68 43 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 71 41 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 72 46 70 46 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 44 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 60 37 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 58 36 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 55 34 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 62 32 57 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 67 41 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 68 39 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 60 34 57 35 / 10 10 0 0 Hurley 62 39 60 38 / 10 10 0 0 Cliff 65 38 64 40 / 20 10 0 0 Mule Creek 60 37 59 39 / 30 10 0 10 Faywood 62 41 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 68 44 66 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 68 42 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 70 42 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 62 43 59 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...99