665
FXUS64 KEPZ 311116
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
516 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

- Very low confidence near term forecast today and tonight as
  moisture and instability are present, but we`re lacking forcing
  for lift.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for the Sacramento Mountains through
  Sunday evening, and the high terrain of the Gila and Sacramento
  Mountains continue to have the best chance for afternoon and
  evening thunderstorms with localized heavy rainfall.

- Rain chances and moisture levels will diminish Monday and
  especially through midweek with storms favoring the Sacramento
  Mountains and Gila.

- Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1014 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Radar is pretty quiet this evening, with some lingering stratiform
showers south of Sierra Blanca, and a pair of isolated showers in
northern Sierra County. Surface dewpoints remain in the 50s and
60s, and the 00Z sounding still found a PWAT of just over 1.30.

Upper level analysis has the area bisected SW to NE by a weakness
in the subtropical ridge, which currently has two centers over SW
Arizona and the Texas Gulf Coast. The overall pattern will remain
unchanged through the day Sunday.

That said, the near term forecast is wildly low-confidence, partly
due to the lack of any strong upper level forcing despite moderate
instability and plenty of moisture. Most of the 00Z HREF members
are already out-to-lunch at 0430Z. The NSSL WRF has non-existent
rainfall all over the area. The ARW WRF is too active too far
north in Chihuahua, and too active over Catron and Socorro
Counties, and undercooked and misplaced with the MCS east of
Roswell. The FV3 completely missed the boat with ongoing
convection in several parts of eastern NM, and is far too active
with non-existent convection across the Borderland. The NAM-Nest
and the 00Z HRRR are doing fairly well, though the 03Z HRRR run is
far underdone in eastern NM.

A couple of the underperforming HREF members were trying to
produce widespread convection in the central part of our CWA
towards dawn. In the case of the ARW, it appeared to be partially
influenced by outflow from eastern NM convection despite it being
too weak with it presently. The FV3 still managed to develop early
AM convection, but without any outflow. For the official forecast,
I tamped down near-dawn PoPs to around 20 percent, but increased
to 30-40 after 15Z, more in-line with the 00Z HRRR and a nod to
the observed convection over eastern NM. But, there`s a chance
this will all be ghost convection, and instead we`ll see a more
typical diurnal progression through Sunday (which is in line with
that the 18Z RRFS was showing).

Either way, the highest confidence for thunderstorms and
potentially heavy (though localized) rainfall is over the higher
terrain of the Gila and the Sacramentos.

On Monday, the subtropical ridge will refocus over Arizona, while
a digging trough over the eastern half of the CONUS brings
northerly flow aloft down the Great Plains. We`ll see northerly
flow, but with some drying working aloft, while higher low level
moisture will continue to lurk along the International Border.
We`ll see see scattered PoPs in the higher terrain Monday, with
isolated activity working into the lowlands in the evening.`

Mid-level flow will become more northeasterly through mid-week,
and precip chances will wane. Precip chances will creep back up
again towards Friday, possibly aided by tropical activity in the
Eastern Pacific. The track of this potential tropical system looks
to curve in from cold side of the Baja, which often limits the
potential for really heavy rainfall, but still would be enough for
an uptick in rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Generally VFR this morning with SCT100 SCT-BKN250. Over the
Sacramento Mtns/NE Otero Co...some lower clouds and
showers/embedded thunderstorms may spread into that area over the
next few hours. Otherwise, expect the typical diurnal storm
development, with scattered BKN-OVC060CB -TSRA developing over
both the Sacramento and Black Range Mtns after 18Z. These storms
will drift southward on outflow over much of the lowlands after
21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 515 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

There are really no fire concerns over the next week other than a
risk of burn scar flooding today, as we continue with plenty of
monsoon moisture over the area. The flood threat for the scars
will be mainly this afternoon into the early evening. Otherwise we
are looking at a gradual drying trend so that by Tuesday, and
especially Wed/Thu, storms will be isolated and limited mainly to
the mountain zones. Temperatures will run around normal to
slightly below for this week.

Min RH: Lowlands 25-40% today and Monday, decreasing to 15-25%
Tuesday through Friday. Gila/Black Range Mtns 35-50% today and
Monday, decreasing to 20-35% Tuesday through Friday. Sacrament
Mtns 50-65% today and Monday, decreasing to 30-45% Tuesday through
Friday. Vent rates fair-good through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  91  71  89  69 /  30  40  30  10
Sierra Blanca            84  62  83  58 /  40  50  50  10
Las Cruces               86  65  85  64 /  30  50  20  10
Alamogordo               88  64  86  62 /  30  30  20  10
Cloudcroft               67  46  65  45 /  70  40  40  10
Truth or Consequences    86  65  85  64 /  40  40  20  20
Silver City              83  59  82  59 /  50  50  50  30
Deming                   90  66  88  64 /  30  40  20  10
Lordsburg                90  67  87  66 /  30  30  20  20
West El Paso Metro       89  70  86  68 /  30  40  30  10
Dell City                87  64  86  62 /  30  30  20   0
Fort Hancock             91  69  88  66 /  40  40  50  10
Loma Linda               81  61  80  61 /  40  40  30   0
Fabens                   89  68  87  65 /  30  40  30  10
Santa Teresa             88  66  85  65 /  30  40  30  10
White Sands HQ           88  67  86  67 /  30  40  30  10
Jornada Range            86  64  85  64 /  30  50  20  10
Hatch                    90  65  88  64 /  30  40  20  10
Columbus                 89  66  86  66 /  30  50  30  10
Orogrande                86  63  85  62 /  30  30  20  10
Mayhill                  74  52  74  51 /  50  40  50  10
Mescalero                78  51  76  50 /  70  40  40  10
Timberon                 75  50  72  49 /  60  40  30  10
Winston                  82  54  79  52 /  50  40  30  20
Hillsboro                88  61  85  60 /  40  40  30  20
Spaceport                86  62  85  62 /  20  50  20  20
Lake Roberts             84  55  83  54 /  70  50  50  30
Hurley                   85  61  83  60 /  50  50  40  20
Cliff                    91  63  89  62 /  60  50  50  20
Mule Creek               87  60  85  60 /  50  40  50  20
Faywood                  84  61  82  61 /  40  40  40  20
Animas                   90  67  87  66 /  40  50  20  20
Hachita                  88  65  84  64 /  30  50  30  20
Antelope Wells           87  63  84  64 /  40  60  40  20
Cloverdale               84  62  80  62 /  40  50  40  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch through this evening for East Slopes Sacramento
     Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500
     Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner