Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
958 FXUS64 KEPZ 010444 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1044 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026 - Warm temperatures on Monday, with highs for El Paso metro and lower valleys in the mid to upper 90s. Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Sacramento Mountains. - Increasing moisture starting Tuesday will lead to widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms. Best chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday with a risk of heavy rain and flash flooding along and east of the Rio Grande. Strong winds and hail will be possible as well. - Warmer and drier conditions return next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026 Main headline for the first week of June will be the arrival of Gulf moisture and daily thunderstorm chances. Consistent south flow within the mid-level 700-850mb layer will usher in moisture up the Rio Grande Valley starting Monday. Surface high over SE Texas will also help push moisture north into South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas. Precipitable water values beginning 0.3-0.5" on Sunday will jump to 1.1-1.3" by midweek and really show no signs of fully eroding through the month of June. This certainly looks like a monsoonal weather pattern and may persist over the next few weeks. Monday will signal the start of this moisture push, but only for areas east of the Rio Grande. Rain chances will be limited mostly to Otero/Hudspeth Counties, especially the Sacramento/Guadalupe Mountains along the eastern fringe of the CWA. Most of southwest New Mexico will remain dry and very warm. Lowland highs will reach to the mid-to-upper 90s again Monday afternoon, with El Paso and the Lower Valley possibly reaching the triple-digit mark for the first time this year. Storm coverage increases on Tuesday as moisture advances further northwest up the Rio Grande Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and east of the Rio Grande. This would include decent chances (30-50%) for the El Paso/Las Cruces metro. Storms will be capable of brief heavy rain and localized flooding. Gusty outflow winds may kick up dust initially as desert topsoil are still dry. Wednesday looks to be the best coverage area wide, finally including Southwest New Mexico, with scattered to numerous (60-80% chance) storms. Favorable moisture and instability combined with weak shortwaves aloft around a orphaned closed low over Baja California will be responsible for storm formation that afternoon. Similar impacts being flooding, gusty winds, and hail. Slight wind down in storm coverage Thursday/Friday as moisture shifts east a bit. Further drying will occur over next weekend, with rain chances limited to the high terrain (mostly the Sacramento Mountains). Temperatures will be mostly below normal midweek before warming back up next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026 VMC through forecast period under light winds aloft and clear skies. Light surface wind overnight, SE 120-160 AOB 5 knots for KELP. Light and variable for S NM terminals. Light SE flow on Monday, with FEW-SCT120 after 20Z. Isolated TS E and NE of KELP. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026 Elevated fire weather conditions will remain in place across Southwest New Mexico on Monday. Light southeast winds will improve moisture for Lincoln NF (Min RH 15-25%), but conditions will remain very dry across the Rio Grande Valley and Gila NF (Min RH 8-12%). Isolated showers and thunderstorms around Ruidoso/Lincoln between 12PM-6PM. Afternoon vent rates will be Very Good with smoke transport drifting to the north. Increasing moisture up the Rio Grande Valley will allow for widespread showers and thunderstorms midweek. Rain chances on Tuesday will be focused along and east of the Rio Grande, especially over Lincoln NF. Storms will be capable of localized flash flooding and gusty outflow winds. New lightning starts will also be a concern as fuel ERCs remain quite dry initially. Gila NF may stay mostly dry on Tuesday, then have better chances on Wednesday/Thursday. Lingering storm chances over LNF Friday/Saturday, but the rest of the area will return to dry and warm conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 70 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 20 Sierra Blanca 63 94 64 91 / 0 10 10 50 Las Cruces 59 96 65 95 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 66 96 68 92 / 0 0 0 60 Cloudcroft 49 75 51 70 / 0 20 10 90 Truth or Consequences 61 95 67 91 / 0 0 0 50 Silver City 55 89 58 88 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 57 99 63 98 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 58 94 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 68 97 71 96 / 0 0 0 20 Dell City 61 97 63 93 / 0 20 10 60 Fort Hancock 68 101 70 99 / 0 0 0 40 Loma Linda 64 91 66 88 / 0 10 0 40 Fabens 66 100 69 99 / 0 0 0 30 Santa Teresa 62 96 66 95 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 71 97 75 95 / 0 0 10 30 Jornada Range 61 95 66 93 / 0 0 0 30 Hatch 60 98 66 96 / 0 0 0 20 Columbus 63 98 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 62 95 67 92 / 0 10 10 50 Mayhill 55 86 56 80 / 0 30 10 90 Mescalero 52 85 55 80 / 0 20 10 70 Timberon 51 82 52 77 / 0 10 10 80 Winston 51 87 56 84 / 0 0 0 60 Hillsboro 61 93 65 91 / 0 0 0 30 Spaceport 57 94 63 92 / 0 0 0 40 Lake Roberts 50 91 55 89 / 0 0 0 20 Hurley 55 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 10 Cliff 53 96 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 53 90 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 57 91 61 90 / 0 0 0 10 Animas 59 94 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 59 94 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 59 93 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 57 87 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt