Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
140
FXUS64 KEPZ 170501
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1101 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy to windy conditions expected on Tuesday as an upper
level disturbance moves through the Central Rockies. This will
lead to Critical Fire Weather Conditions across most of
southern New Mexico.
- Temperatures will finally begin to retreat on Tuesday, though
only by a few degrees. Heat Advisories remain in effect for El
Paso and the Lower Valley Tuesday, then retreating to just the
Lower Valley on Wednesday.
- Dry conditions will prevail this week. Rain chances will begin
to increase next weekend as an early monsoon moisture plume
tries to set up. Areas near and east of the Rio Grande appear
to be most favored.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1041 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025
An upper level trough over Nevada will move across the Central
Rockies on Tuesday, bringing breezy to windy westerly winds to the
region. The west winds will scour out any low level moisture over
West Texas by late morning, and minimum RH values look to drop to
5 to 6 percent across the lowlands by afternoon, and 5 to 8
percent even in the highest elevations. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph
will be possible, with the odd 40 mph gust possible east of the
San Andres and Organ Mountains.
Obviously, fire weather is a main concern especially with the
Trout Fire still active in the Pinos Altos range above the Mimbres
and Sapillo Creek valleys.
Smoke will continue to be a concern, mainly around the
aforementioned valleys, but patchy smoke could work into Silver
City as well by morning. With the increasing winds and high
instability, expect very active fire behavior tomorrow, and a
smoke plume that could even make it to the Sacramento Mountains.
It will likely be elevated over most areas, but it will be
interesting to see if any reaches the ground over the highest
terrain of the Sacs.
Temperatures Wednesday will drop into the 100-103 range for most
of the lowlands, but 105+ for the Lower Valley below about Fabens.
Heat Advisory has been extended down there for an extra day.
A strong easterly push will bring low level moisture back into the
area, Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 850 mb winds look to
crank up to 30 knots after midnight, which could cause gusts 35
to 45 mph along the west slopes of the Franklins. The low level
easterly flow will maintain itself through the day Thursday,
rather than mixing out with westerlies. We`ll get an additional
push Thursday night, with similar low level winds, so another
gusty night is likely west of the Franklins.
Unfortunately the subtropical ridge position and an inverted
trough well to our south will pull mid-level dry air into the
region during this period, reducing instability, and keeping
precip chances low until Saturday.
For the weekend, a digging trough over the Pacific Northwest and
Great Basin will push the subtropical ridge over the Southeastern
US. Flow between the two features will bring an early monsoon
moisture plume up into the region. If this were later into the
summer, it`d be a better setup, as the Sierra Madres would be far
greener and moister. So the plume may be a little anemic, and
looks to favor areas east of the Divide and especially near and
east of the Rio Grande heading into Sunday and Monday, while
Arizona and SW New Mexico stay under the influence of the western
trough. The GFS even suggests Sunday could see lee troughing east
of the Continental Divide, with low level convergence increasing
the precip threat near and east of the Rio Grande in New Mexico.
But, this is a long ways off.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. So far, smoke
from the Trout fire is high enough aloft that is has failed to
create a ceiling at TCS and DMN, and this will likely remain the
case overnight.
West-southwest winds will increase Tuesday afternoon, with gusts
28 to 33 knots possible between 20Z and 02Z. Patchy blowing dust
is possible at DMN, and perhaps LRU. Smoke from the Trout Fire
will extend far to the east, possibly reaching the Sacramento
Mountains late in the day.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Fire danger will increase Tuesday as winds become breezy from the
west. Today, the upper high is forced southward by an approaching
upper trough. 20-ft winds increase to 10-15 mph from the west this
afternoon mainly W of the RGV. Very low RHs and modestly breezy
winds will create elevated fire danger on Monday. Scattered CU and
isolated showers develop in the mountains this afternoon with
gusty and erratic winds possible.
Tuesday will have the strongest winds of the period as the upper
trough passes north and the lee- side low strengthens. 20-ft winds
around 20 mph develop during the afternoon from the west Tuesday
afternoon for most of southern NM. With critically dry fuels and
very low RHs continuing, a low- end Red Flag day is expected for
SW NM. Red Flag Warnings are now in effect for FWZs 110, 111, 112.
RFTIs of 4 to 5 are forecast on Tuesday, mainly due to the
critically low RHs near 5%. Lighter winds return for Wednesday as
ridging builds back in, but dry conditions persist for the rest of
the workweek. Moisture levels increase over the weekend with
better rain chances areawide into early next week. Temperatures
stay above normal through the week.
Min RHs will be 4-12% through Wednesday, then 7-20%. Vent rates
will be good to excellent through the week, excellent areawide
Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 78 107 76 104 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 68 101 68 100 / 10 0 0 0
Las Cruces 70 102 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 70 103 66 102 / 0 0 0 10
Cloudcroft 59 81 53 76 / 0 0 0 10
Truth or Consequences 73 103 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 67 94 63 97 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 70 104 66 103 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 68 101 64 102 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 79 104 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 68 105 66 101 / 10 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 75 107 71 105 / 10 0 0 0
Loma Linda 71 99 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 73 105 71 105 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 74 103 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 78 103 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 69 102 65 102 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 70 104 65 102 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 74 104 73 102 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 72 103 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 60 91 56 85 / 0 0 0 10
Mescalero 60 92 56 88 / 0 0 0 10
Timberon 58 88 55 85 / 0 0 0 10
Winston 60 93 56 92 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 67 101 66 99 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 67 103 63 101 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 58 95 55 97 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 66 97 62 100 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 63 99 60 103 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 59 95 59 99 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 70 97 65 97 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 67 100 66 100 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 68 100 65 101 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 68 101 66 102 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 66 96 66 97 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Northern Hudspeth
Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Southern Hudspeth Highlands.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Rio Grande Valley of
Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley
of Eastern Hudspeth County.
Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Salt Basin-Western El Paso
County.
NM...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Grant
County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest
Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central
Tularosa Basin/White Sands.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for South Central
Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest
Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest
Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...25-MPH