696
FXUS64 KEPZ 261120
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
520 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Quiet and dry weather conditions with hot temperatures will be the
theme through the weekend. High temperatures this weekend will be
10-15 degrees above average. The hottest day will be Friday where
the high temperature in El Paso could rival the daily record of
98 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Overall, no major changes in the forecast from previous forecast
packages with quiet weather conditions and hot temperatures across
far west TX and southern NM over the next few days.

Strengthening high pressure a aloft will be the main feature
dictating the sensible weather conditions across the Borderland
Region through the period. High pressure will continue building in
across New Mexico through the day, leading to quiet weather
conditions and above average warmth across the desert lowlands.
High temperatures this afternoon will top out in the low to middle
90s under mostly sunny skies.

For today through Friday, upper level low over IL/MO/KY tri-state
area will interact with Hurricane Helene after it makes landfall
near the Big Bend Region of Florida. Once inland across the
Southeast US Thursday night into Friday timeframe, Helene will be
pulled northwestward across the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys
rotating around the aforementioned upper low (Fujiwhara Effect).
These two systems will basically rotate around one another, while
strengthening and deepening. This will ultimately help strengthen
the upper level high over New Mexico leading the anomalous warmth
through the weekend.

High temperatures will be the warmest Friday through Sunday with
Friday being the hottest. 98 degrees is currently forecasted for
Friday which would tie the daily record. The possibility of hitting
100 degrees is not zero, but confidence in that happening is LOW.
Regardless, it`s going to be abnormally warm through the week.

Looking ahead, upper level ridging over the region will remain in
place leading to above average temperatures and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC. Winds
light and VRB through the morning, becoming SEerly at 4-8 knots
during the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Upper level high pressure over the region with warm/above average
temperatures and dry conditions will be the theme through the
weekend. Fire weather concerns are LOW to LOW-END ELEVATED each
afternoon, LOW-END ELEVATED for elevations below 7500 ft. High
temperatures will remain 5-15 degrees above the seasonal average
with Min RH values across the desert lowlands/Gila between 15-25
percent and 25-35 percent over the Sacs this afternoon.

As high pressure aloft becomes more established over New Mexico,
daily high temperatures will remain 5-15 degrees above average
with Min RH values at or below critical thresholds Friday through
early next week.

Winds will remain light and generally out of east/southeast. Winds
over the mountains will be more terrain influenced, along with
following it`s typical diurnal wind flow regimes. Mixing heights
will range from 6000-9000 feet this afternoon. Due to weak
transport winds, smoke ventilation rates will be Poor to Fair.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  93  67  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            85  58  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               92  62  97  64 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               92  61  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               70  49  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    91  62  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              88  59  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   93  60  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                93  62  96  64 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       91  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                91  59  96  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             93  61  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               85  62  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   92  62  97  64 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             90  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           91  67  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            91  61  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    93  59  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 92  63  96  64 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                89  60  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  83  55  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                82  52  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 79  52  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  85  52  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                90  59  95  59 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                91  58  96  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             88  52  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   89  57  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    97  54 100  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               90  59  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  88  60  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   94  60  97  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  91  60  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           93  60  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               90  62  91  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers