Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
477 FXUS64 KEPZ 130451 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 951 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 950 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 - Expect continued dry conditions with a warming trend through Saturday. - A storm system this weekend has trended towards a more northerly track. This will mean breezy west winds on Sunday, with some isolated to scattered rain showers mainly limited to the Gila. - Cooler temperatures arrive early next week, and additional chances for light precipitation around the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 950 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 An UL ridge covers the western CONUS this evening will a long-wave trough over the Pacific and more or less zonal flow over the eastern half of the CONUS. The UL ridge over the west will build through Saturday, largely remaining anchored until then. Fair weather will be the rule with highs near record levels with cool to chilly morning lows. Winds will be fairly light as well. A pattern change begins to take place late Saturday into Sunday as the UL trough over the Pacific gradually pushes east, reaching the AZ - NM state line as an UL trough by Sunday evening. Temperatures will remain warm on Sunday during the afternoon, but this initial s/w will push a Pacific front through the state ending our near record warmth, bringing temperatures closer to normal starting Monday. This initial trough passage has trended much drier with POPs all but eliminated except for portions of the Gila. Sunday will be breezy as well. A s/w ridge will pass over the area on Monday before another UL trough/low begins to influence the area starting Tuesday. Next week looks to feature active weather in the form of increased wind and rain chances as this trough stalls out just to our west. Temperatures will continue to run near or just below normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 950 PM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue beneath SKC-FEW250. Winds will be light and variable throughout the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1013 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025 Near record highs over the next several days as the lowlands reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Min RH`s will also remain mainly in the 15-20 percent range but winds will stay below 15 mph so no critical fire conditions are expected. As we go into the weekend, there will be a very small cool down, but dew points will be rising helping RH`s get into the 20s and 30s by Sunday. Occasional breezy conditions are possible as well this weekend. Poor to fair vent rates for Thu with Fair to Good prevailing for Fri. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 80 53 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 78 48 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 77 46 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 76 47 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 57 39 59 39 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 75 47 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 72 47 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 80 46 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 77 46 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 78 55 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 81 43 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 84 51 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 73 53 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 81 49 83 49 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 77 48 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 78 54 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 77 44 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 80 43 81 42 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 80 49 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 75 47 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 70 43 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 69 41 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 66 41 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 71 38 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 76 48 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 76 42 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 72 41 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 75 44 75 42 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 78 32 79 42 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 74 35 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 74 48 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 80 48 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 78 45 79 42 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 79 48 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 74 51 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown