050
FXUS64 KEPZ 140421
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1021 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Hottest temperatures of the year are on the way, with highs
    104 to 108 Luna, Dona Ana, El Paso and Hudspeth Counties
    through Wednesday.

 -  Mostly dry, but mountains, mainly the Sacs, will see a slight
    chance of thunderstorms over the weekend.

 -  Possible smoke impacts in parts of Grant, Sierra, and Luna
    Counties from the Trout and Buck Fire next few days.

 -  Breezy winds Monday/Tuesday will push fire conditions to near
    critical.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

It is about to get real hot. The hottest temperatures of the
season are on the way starting on Saturday and lasting through
at least Tuesday. The culprit in all of this is a large upper
level ridge centered almost directly over southern New Mexico.
This upper level ridge will park itself over the region through
Monday. High temperatures on Saturday, Sunday and Monday will run
7 to 10 degrees above average. This will have most lowland
locations easily reaching heat advisory criteria (high temps of
105) and for El Paso into the Rio Grande Valley below El Paso, we
will be close excessive heat warning criteria (high temps of 110).
Right now I`m keeping metro El Paso, just below heat warning
criteria, but probabilistic guidance has at least 25% chance that
El Paso could see a high of 110 Sunday through Tuesday. There
continues to be just enough moisture in trapped under the ridge to
give a slight chance for thunderstorms in the Sacramento
Mountains mainly on Saturday and Sunday.

On Monday the upper level ridge will begin to feel the impact of
an approaching upper level trough. The upper level ridge center
will push a little to the south and west as the upper level trough
moves into California. By Tuesday, the upper level ridge center
will be to our south and the upper level trough will be moving
across northern New Mexico. The upper level trough will usher in
some breezy west winds. The zonal flow (west to east) will
continue our very warm temperatures on Tuesday. The breezy winds
on Tuesday (maybe also Monday) will raise fire weather concerns,
especially with several on going fires.

For Wednesday and Thursday the upper level trough will be well to
our east and the upper level ridge will rebound and recenter back
over New Mexico. The current models are likely under doing
Wednesday and Thursday`s high temperatures, so we may need to
adjust those high temperatures up a few degrees as we get closer.
Down at the surface on Thursday, we will see our surface winds
come around to the southeast and that may be the beginning of some
moisture moving into the region. For now it is too early to tell
how much, if any moisture will move in, so our forecast is dry
through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VFR conditions for the next 24 hours as upper level high pressure
takes control of our weather. We will have unlimited ceilings
tonight and through the day on Saturday. The winds will be light
tonight, but we may see some low end gusty winds at all TAF sites
Saturday afternoon into the early evening hours. The main concern
on Saturday will be the heat. Anyone working the ramps or on the
tarmacs should prepare for excessive heat by taking plenty of
breaks and staying hydrated. Density altitude could become an
issue especially at KELP where we could see DA`s approaching 7,700
feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1056 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Much above normal temperatures to continue through the week ahead
with very low humidity and low fuel moisture. Thus, fire
conditions will remain at least elevated into much of next week. A
few daytime thunderstorms still possible over the mountain zones
through the weekend. Winds most days relatively light, but they
will become breezy Monday and Tuesday, possibly creating critical
fire conditions (near Red Flag).

Min RH: Lowlands 6-11% through Wednesday. Mountains 10-18% through
Wednesday. Vent rates good Saturday, then very good-excellent
Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  75 107  77 108 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            66 100  68 101 /  10  10  10  10
Las Cruces               68 103  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               68 102  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               54  81  56  81 /   0  10   0  20
Truth or Consequences    70 103  72 104 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              64  96  67  98 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                   67 105  68 107 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                64 101  66 104 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro       76 103  77 104 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                68 104  69 104 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Hancock             70 107  73 108 /  10   0  10  10
Loma Linda               69  97  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   71 106  73 107 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             70 102  73 103 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           75 103  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            65 102  66 104 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    65 104  66 106 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 71 104  72 106 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande                69 101  70 102 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  58  92  59  93 /   0  10   0  20
Mescalero                58  91  60  91 /   0  10   0  10
Timberon                 56  88  56  89 /   0  10   0  10
Winston                  56  95  58  95 /  10   0   0  10
Hillsboro                65 102  68 103 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport                63 102  65 103 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             57  97  60  99 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   63  99  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    61 102  64 104 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               60  96  63  99 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  66  99  69 100 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                   65 100  68 103 /   0   0   0  10
Hachita                  65 101  66 104 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells           67 101  69 104 /   0   0  10  10
Cloverdale               66  96  70  99 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight MDT Monday night
     for Western El Paso County.

     Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Monday night for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
     El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
     Eastern Hudspeth County.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to midnight MDT Monday night
     for Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest
     Desert/Mimbres Basin.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice