Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
532 FXUS64 KEPZ 150444 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1044 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 740 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Available monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will lead to daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the Borderland through the week. -Impacts from storms include periods of heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding, mainly small hail, gusty outflow winds, and areas blowing dust. - With the general summertime thunderstorm weather pattern, daily high temperatures top out very near seasonal averages. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 740 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A busy upper air pattern across the southern tier of the U.S. with several features all playing some part in the flow pattern over our region. The nose of a SoCal high is ridged over the Four Corners to our north. A Bermuda high over the Gulf has receded to the east. To our SW is a low pressure center over Sonora. Over our region is the confused junction of those three synoptic features, where in, our flow pattern is light and variable, and inconsistent. This is part of the reason we are seeing slow moving showers and thunderstorms. Our current moisture content across the region is very near the seasonal normals for this point in the monsoon. We are seeing surface dewpoints in the 45-55F range, and PWATS in the 0.80" mountains to 1.20" lowlands range. Moisture content is not low or high, it is just average. We been seeing scattered to numerous showers and storms the past few days, with pop-up severe storms due to hail and winds, and plenty of heavy rain makers due to efficiency and slow motions. For Tuesday the general theme will be the same, moisture in place, heating and upslope motions destabilizing the airmass, with buildups and storms to follow. The difference appears to be a westward shift in the focus of most of the development. The SACs will still get their storms, but lowland in the RGV and east should see a noticeable decrease in storm activity. This is because the low to our south moves west across the Baja into the Pacific, and the nose of the upper high to our N sags SE. This looks to concentrate our moisture to the east of the RGV. Still isolated storms east, but more scattered to possibly numerous storms west. Wednesday looks to follow with a similar convective pattern, favoring western areas over eastern areas, but some developing low pressure surface troughing over the RGV may allow for some moisture to spill back east a bit. Thus potential for better storms over the central portions of the forecast area. It appears Thursday will have a pretty uniform moisture channel focused over the entire area as an inverted wave pass to our south and helps to reorient the moisture plume directly over our CWA. This could mean equal rain/storm chances across the CWA, with high pops mountains. As we move to the weekend, it appears high pressure nudges toward us from TX. Models show the deeper moisture plume shifting back over our western areas, with somewhat drier air back east of the RGV. Honestly given the weak pattern, there is little confidence in the detail of the forecast, beyond stating we have moisture, we will have daytime instability, and there will be isolated to scattered rain and storms each day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 519 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Today`s round of showers and storms have abated with plenty of debris clouds still in place, and a broad fetch of high-level clouds streaming over from the SW, off of deep convection over N Mexico. Winds will continue to slacken as outflows lose momentum. Overnight, expect VFR conditions, with CIGS generally abv 200, few locations at 150. Winds VRBL in the 5-8kt range. No VSBY restrictions. Tomorrow, aft 18Z expect mountain clouds and buildups with developing TSRA. Lowlands should remain FEW- SCT080-100 through 21Z, then ISO buildups and storms east/SCT west of Rio Grande. AFT 22Z, areas with tempo TSRA in VCTY of terminal...KDMN and KTCS favored over KLRU and KELP. Possible brief CIGs to 050, with gusty and erratic winds to 45kts, and BLDU reducing VSBY to 1-3SM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 740 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Although not a "textbook" monsoonal pattern, the region does have a healthy amount of monsoonal moisture in place across all of Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. The pattern is weak and complex, with nearby low and high pressure systems all meeting over the area, with complicated and complex light flow. For our areas, this means we will NOT either moisten or dry out significantly through the week; only oscilate the deeper moisture east and west across the region from day to day. Thus we will keep our seasonably warm temperature each early afternoon, and allow the good to excellent overnight RH recovery to drop into the upper teens (but mostly 20% range) each early afternoon. We expect a daily cycle of generally sunny mornings, with late morning cloud development over area mountains. The mountain areas will then see the first storms of the day, with the lowlands seeing showers and storms later in the afternoon (into the evening), pushed up mostly on outflow boundaries. Max temperatures and min RH will likely occur in the early afternoon, with clouds and storms bringing some cooling of temps and raising of RH for the later afternoon hours. These storms we see each day will have plenty enough moisture to produce wetting rains and areas of heavy rainfall, and their motion will be slow enough that flash flooding will remain a threat. The other primary threat to field personnel will be the gusty and erratic outflow winds caused by these storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 96 74 98 77 / 20 20 10 10 Sierra Blanca 87 64 88 67 / 20 10 10 10 Las Cruces 92 69 94 70 / 30 30 10 20 Alamogordo 90 67 93 70 / 60 10 20 10 Cloudcroft 67 50 70 52 / 70 10 30 10 Truth or Consequences 92 70 93 71 / 40 20 30 20 Silver City 84 63 86 62 / 70 50 70 50 Deming 95 70 96 72 / 30 30 20 40 Lordsburg 93 69 92 68 / 50 40 60 60 West El Paso Metro 92 75 94 75 / 20 20 10 10 Dell City 92 69 93 71 / 20 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 97 73 96 75 / 30 10 10 20 Loma Linda 86 66 88 67 / 30 10 10 10 Fabens 94 72 95 74 / 20 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 92 72 93 73 / 30 30 10 20 White Sands HQ 92 74 95 74 / 40 20 10 10 Jornada Range 92 69 93 69 / 40 30 10 20 Hatch 94 70 96 70 / 40 30 20 20 Columbus 93 72 95 73 / 20 30 10 40 Orogrande 89 67 92 71 / 50 20 10 10 Mayhill 77 54 80 58 / 70 10 30 10 Mescalero 78 55 81 58 / 70 10 30 10 Timberon 75 53 77 55 / 60 10 20 10 Winston 83 58 86 58 / 60 30 60 40 Hillsboro 90 65 92 66 / 40 30 40 40 Spaceport 90 67 93 67 / 40 20 20 20 Lake Roberts 85 57 87 57 / 70 50 70 50 Hurley 88 64 89 64 / 50 40 60 50 Cliff 92 65 94 64 / 70 50 70 60 Mule Creek 89 63 89 62 / 80 50 70 40 Faywood 87 65 89 65 / 50 40 40 40 Animas 92 68 91 68 / 50 30 60 70 Hachita 90 66 92 68 / 40 30 40 60 Antelope Wells 90 66 88 66 / 50 40 60 80 Cloverdale 87 63 84 62 / 50 40 80 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird