Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
754
FXUS64 KEPZ 122335
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
535 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1112 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025
- Remnant tropical moisture will continue to flow over the area
tonight and Monday, bringing rain and storm chances. Heavy
rain will be a threat in southern and western areas of New
Mexico with flooding possible.
- We will see a drying trend starting on Tuesday as showers
limited to areas from the Rio Grande Valley east, and should be
rain free the rest of the week into next weekend.
- Well below normal temperatures Monday then back to seasonable
temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Short term-tonight through Monday...the remnants from Raymond
continue over the area today, with scattered showers continuing
into tonight and Monday. The heaviest rain, per radar and most
models more limited to the counties adjacent to the Intl Border.
Rainfall from one- half inch to as much as two inches is possible
in these areas through Monday night. Lesser coverage and rainfall
amounts over the counties to the north. Rainfall rates look
relatively low and mid level flow suggest fairly low risk of
flooding, though will let Flood Watch run to its expiration (6pm
this evening). Again what flood potential is left should be
limited to the southern counties. Temperatures continuing well
below normal.
Tuesday and Wednesday...slow drying will begin as Pacific upper
low drops down to SoCal. Still some showers lingering Tuesday,
mainly from the Rio Grande Valley east. Decent CAPE values and
speed shear develop Tuesday, so would not be surprised if a few
strong to near-severe pop up in the east. Dry air continues to
slowly filter in from the west, though the Sacs could still see a
shower/thunderstorm Wednesday.
Thursday into next weekend...drying out is basically complete as
the Pacific trough sweeps across New Mexico. Pattern would suggest
breezy afternoons, though GFS only showing winds in the 10-20 mph
range. Temperatures will warm back to seasonable levels.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Scattered SHRA tonight into Monday at KELP. Prevailing ceilings
BKN-OVC060. Temporary IFR CIGs possible overnight with SCT-BKN010
due to rain. Visibility remaining mostly above 6SM, with
temporary drops to 3SM due to rain. NM sites likely remaining
drier overnight, then VCSH Monday morning. Rain chances will
continue through the day Monday with temporary MVFR conditions due
to rain. Prevailing surface winds 150-180 at 05-10 knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025
No fire concerns for this week ahead. Tropical moisture will
continue to produce showers tonight and Monday, with a few areas
of flooding possible. Tuesday and Wednesday begin a drying
process, though some showers still possible from the Rio Grande
Valley east. Rain chances end all areas on Thursday into next
weekend. Temperatures remaining at or below normal for the entire
period.
Min RH: Lowlands 50-70% Monday and Tuesday, decreasing to 25-40%
Wednesday through Friday. Mountains 60-80% Monday and Tuesday,
decreasing to 25-40% Wednesday through Friday. Vent rates mostly
poor Monday, becoming fair-good Tuesday through Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 63 78 64 84 / 80 60 50 10
Sierra Blanca 58 76 57 82 / 90 60 50 20
Las Cruces 58 73 60 79 / 60 60 40 20
Alamogordo 57 75 60 80 / 50 60 50 30
Cloudcroft 42 57 44 61 / 60 70 60 40
Truth or Consequences 57 72 58 77 / 70 60 50 20
Silver City 54 66 53 72 / 70 90 50 20
Deming 60 75 60 80 / 70 80 30 10
Lordsburg 59 73 58 78 / 70 80 20 10
West El Paso Metro 62 75 64 81 / 80 60 50 10
Dell City 60 77 60 83 / 80 50 50 10
Fort Hancock 64 81 65 87 / 90 60 50 20
Loma Linda 57 70 58 76 / 90 60 60 20
Fabens 62 78 64 84 / 100 60 50 10
Santa Teresa 60 73 61 80 / 80 60 50 10
White Sands HQ 61 75 62 80 / 60 60 60 30
Jornada Range 59 73 60 78 / 60 70 50 30
Hatch 59 76 60 80 / 60 70 50 20
Columbus 60 76 61 80 / 80 70 30 10
Orogrande 58 73 59 79 / 60 70 60 20
Mayhill 49 66 50 70 / 60 70 60 40
Mescalero 46 68 49 72 / 50 70 60 40
Timberon 46 64 48 68 / 60 70 60 30
Winston 48 66 48 70 / 70 70 50 20
Hillsboro 54 71 55 76 / 60 70 50 20
Spaceport 57 73 57 78 / 60 70 50 30
Lake Roberts 50 68 49 73 / 70 80 50 20
Hurley 55 68 54 74 / 70 80 40 20
Cliff 58 73 56 79 / 70 80 50 10
Mule Creek 54 71 52 74 / 70 90 60 10
Faywood 55 68 56 72 / 70 80 50 20
Animas 59 74 57 79 / 70 70 10 10
Hachita 58 73 57 77 / 80 80 30 10
Antelope Wells 57 74 56 78 / 80 70 10 10
Cloverdale 56 68 55 73 / 90 80 20 10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for Lowlands of the
Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Uplands
of the Bootheel.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt