Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
296 FXUS64 KEPZ 290413 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1013 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1012 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026 - Isolated thunderstorms possible over Hudspeth, and southern Otero Counties through late evening...otherwise dry and quiet. - Showers with embedded thunderstorms expected areawide Thursday and again later Friday. Brief stretch of quiet weather for Halloween. - A upper level system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area Sunday and into Monday. Increased flooding risk from thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1012 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Southwest flow aloft is increasing as upper low nears the California coast...and several short waves out ahead of the low near Baja rotate east toward New Mexico. This flow will bring up existing sub-tropical moisture over northern Mexico, including some moisture from TS Vance, across the CWA Thursday. PWs approach one inch from the RG Valley east. Batted around a flood watch but decided not to issue one. The moisture, decent instability and slow storm movement could still create a few flooding storms. One of the short waves rotating out of the California trough reaches New Mexico late FRIDAY afternoon and into the evening to spread another round of showers/storms to the area. PWs almost as high as Thursday`s event, with sub-tropical jet approaching and drawing in moisture from the eastern Pacific. Shear environment looks better than Thursday, and along with modest CAPE values may be more conducive to some strong/severe storms. The negative is that the storms are not likely to start until late in the day. SATURDAY (Halloween) looks to be a tweener day as the short wave exits the area and we await the the west coast upper low. Both GFS/ECMWF dampen the low as it approaches, but phasing it in with the Pac NW over the Great Basin SUNDAY. This looks to be a fast moving feature, though ECMWF somewhat slower. GFS moves it out by late Sunday night while the ECMWF lets it hang around until Monday afternoon. Showers/storms should start out west Sunday afternoon and spread east through the evening hours. Once again PWs approach or slightly exceed one inch, suggesting some flood potential. However mid-level storm motion winds of 30-50 mph may not allow for prolonged rain over any specific area. Main Pacific cold front moves through late Sunday night with secondary colder front dropping out of the Great Basin to the CWA Monday night. High temps by Tuesday may remain in the 60s across the lowlands. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026 VFR conditions through the period. Rio Grande Valley west...SCT- BKN250. East of the Valley...SCT080 BKN250 with a slight chance of a BKN060CB -TSRA over Hudspeth until 08Z. Developing after 18Z...scattered BKN/OVC060CB 3-5SM TSRA. Large hail and wind gusts of 30-40 knots with some of the storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1257 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Low fire weather concerns through at least Monday as min RHs stay above critical thresholds. Expect showers and thunderstorms starting tomorrow morning and persisting into Friday morning. A brief break in the rain Friday morning and portions of the afternoon but the next round of rain expected to begin out west Friday afternoon and through the evening. By Saturday morning, much of the weather will have cleared out bringing another short break in the weather. A more robust system will bring more rain and thunderstorm chances Sunday but will clear out on Monday. Flash flooding will be a concern with thunderstorms Sunday. There`ll be a lower risk for flooding Thursday (still could happen, but not as widespread), but definitely looks to be a bigger risk on Sunday. Min RHs in the lowlands will be anywhere from 30-60% tomorrow with mountain min RHs of 70-80% tomorrow. Min RHs will become 40-60% in the lowlands and 65-80% in the mountains Friday through Sunday. Min RHs dip to the 30% range in the lowlands and 50-60% in the mountains Monday through Wednesday. 20 foot winds will be 5-10 mph each afternoon starting Thursday through Saturday. Slightly breezier conditions Sunday with winds 10-15 mph, and even breezier Monday afternoon with speeds of 10-20 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 59 76 58 73 / 0 50 70 10 Sierra Blanca 54 71 52 70 / 20 60 70 20 Las Cruces 54 75 54 72 / 0 30 70 0 Alamogordo 54 75 52 71 / 0 60 70 20 Cloudcroft 40 58 39 54 / 0 70 80 30 Truth or Consequences 51 75 53 72 / 0 20 70 10 Silver City 49 71 48 68 / 0 20 40 30 Deming 53 77 53 74 / 0 20 60 10 Lordsburg 52 77 52 74 / 0 10 30 20 West El Paso Metro 61 75 60 73 / 0 50 70 0 Dell City 55 74 55 73 / 20 50 70 10 Fort Hancock 60 79 59 78 / 30 50 60 20 Loma Linda 54 69 52 66 / 10 50 60 10 Fabens 59 77 58 76 / 10 60 60 10 Santa Teresa 57 75 56 72 / 0 40 60 0 White Sands HQ 59 76 57 73 / 10 50 70 10 Jornada Range 52 75 54 72 / 0 40 70 10 Hatch 54 79 55 76 / 0 30 70 10 Columbus 56 77 56 75 / 0 10 60 10 Orogrande 51 74 53 71 / 0 40 70 10 Mayhill 45 67 45 64 / 0 60 80 50 Mescalero 44 68 44 64 / 0 70 70 30 Timberon 44 65 42 62 / 10 50 70 30 Winston 42 69 44 67 / 0 20 60 20 Hillsboro 52 74 52 72 / 0 30 70 10 Spaceport 49 75 53 72 / 0 30 70 10 Lake Roberts 35 72 41 69 / 0 20 40 30 Hurley 48 73 48 70 / 0 20 50 20 Cliff 34 79 44 75 / 0 30 20 40 Mule Creek 30 74 41 69 / 0 10 10 40 Faywood 51 72 50 69 / 0 20 60 10 Animas 52 77 53 75 / 0 10 30 20 Hachita 51 76 52 74 / 0 20 40 10 Antelope Wells 53 77 53 75 / 0 20 30 20 Cloverdale 51 74 50 69 / 0 10 20 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner