Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
155 FXUS64 KEPZ 251201 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 501 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 444 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 - Dry weather, with few clouds, near seasonal temperatures, and generally light winds today through the entire work week, including Thanksgiving day. - We will see a cooling trend starting this weekend. - The next storm system looks to arrive Sunday, with a chance for precipitation Sunday night west of the Rio Grande. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 855 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 We will have a quiet weather pattern through Friday, but then we will have more active weather this weekend into the start of next week. Currently we have an upper level trough over western Missouri and an upper level ridge just off the coast of California. This will give us a dry northwest flow aloft for the next couple of days. This pattern will keep our precipitation chances near zero, but it won`t allow for any quick warm ups. High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will run just a few degrees above average. Then for Thursday and Friday an upper level ridge will move across New Mexico. The ridge will continue our dry weather, but it will allow for high temperatures to jump 5 to 10 degrees above average. As we head into the weekend, we will begin to see a pattern change as a series of upper level short waves and deeper troughs move in our direction. Initially a pair of short wave troughs, one on Saturday and one on Sunday will dash across the region, having little impact on our weather. By Sunday evening though, a much deeper upper level trough will be getting organized somewhere near southern California. There is are still some significant strength and timing differences between the deterministic GFS and ECMWF. For now there is a chance (20 to 40%) of lowland rain and mountain snow showers in the forecast starting late Sunday night (west of the Rio Grande) and continuing through Tuesday. Still way to early to start talking about precipitation totals. It will be interesting to see how this weather pattern evolves as we go through the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 444 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 VFR conditions across all terminals through the forecast period. Dry NW flow regime will keep skies generally SKC, with fair and benign weather across the region. No vsby restrictions. Winds will be light to calm and variable, with a favoring of NW through NE directions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 444 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 A fair weather pattern will persist across the Southwestern U.S. as weak high pressure, and a flat NW to W flow pattern aloft keeps the storm track well north of our region. This will mean a continuation of dry conditions, with plenty of clear skies through the remainder of the week, with periods of passing high clouds. Temperatures will keep steady today and Wednesday, just a few degrees warmer than normal, before warming more late week into the weekend. Winds will be light today through Thursday, with increasing afternoon gusts going into the weekend, as the next storms system begins to arrive from the west. Dry conditions are expected through Saturday, with afternoon RH down in the 20 percent range, but with good overnight recoveries, due to chilly overnight low temperatures. The mid range forecast models, GFS and ECMWF, are really struggling with the weather forecast beyond Saturday. For several runs, we were seeing large Pacific storm systems moving across our region, with much cooler and wetter conditions. The latest model offerings are backing WAY off of those solutions, with suggestions those systems will pass quickly to our north, with little to no impacts to our area. Stand by as we try to find some model stability, and get a better handle of the forecast for Sunday and beyond. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 40 66 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 34 61 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 33 61 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 32 61 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 23 44 28 50 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 36 61 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 34 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 34 65 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 34 63 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 42 64 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 32 62 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 37 69 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 37 59 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 37 67 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 36 63 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 41 63 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 31 62 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 31 64 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 37 65 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 34 61 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 25 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 25 56 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 24 51 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 27 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 36 61 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 29 61 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 29 61 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 32 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 31 66 32 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 30 64 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 36 59 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 33 64 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 32 63 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 33 64 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 38 61 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird