Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
876
FXUS64 KEPZ 151828
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1228 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The hottest temperatures of the year will continue. Highs will
range from 104 to 109 across the lowlands through Tuesday.
- Low chance of showers and storms in far eastern areas today.
- Dry conditions prevail Monday through at least Friday.
- Smoke will affect parts of Grant and Sierra counties from the
Trout and Buck Fires next few days. Smoke will be particularly
thick in the Mimbres and Sapillo Valleys.
- Critical fire weather conditions are possible as breezy west
winds develop Monday and especially Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025
Another very hot day is expected today as the upper high sits on
top of the region. Enough moisture is available to give far
eastern areas a slight chance of showers and storms, starting in
the Sacs during the afternoon and drifting into Hudspeth County
into the evening. The primary threat is strong outflow/downdraft
winds to 50 mph with dry lightning possible due to large dew point
depressions. A cold pool is expected to develop out east late in
the day, expanding westward during the evening to cover much of
the CWA. Gusty E-SE winds to 40 mph accompany the moisture
boundary as it heads west.
On the other side of the CWA is a hotly burning wildfire in the
Gila Region north of Silver City, the Trout Fire. Smoky conditions
have been prevalent in the surrounding valleys and even in the
lowlands the past several days. Pyro-cu have also been observed
coming off the smoke from the fire, which can be expected again
this afternoon. Smoke and hazy skies are forecast west of the RGV
into the evening. The larger Buck Fire in Catron County may also
produce hazy conditions into T or C.
For Monday, the upper high is squished to the south by an incoming
upper trough moving into the Great Basin. Dry westerly flow aloft
will develop on the north side of the ridge, nudging any lingering
surface moisture to the east. Dew points drop to the 20s nearly
everywhere during the afternoon with the exception of far eastern
areas where there is again a very slight chance (10-20%) of
isolated gusty showers/storms. Winds begin to increase as lee
troughing develops along the Front Range with a 995-1000mb
surface low in SE Colorado. The high is pushed further south on
Tuesday as the impulse enters the Central High Plains and creates
a stronger lee-side low. 850mb winds increase to 20-25kts over
much of the region, making for a breezy, dry, and very hot day.
The dry, westerly flow over the top of the ridge will keep
rain/storm chances near zero on Tuesday.
For the rest of the workweek, the upper high makes a return with
light winds, hot temperatures, and dry conditions expected through
Friday. The end of the forecast period gets interesting as the
upper high is progged to shift east towards the Lower MS Valley.
Could this be our introduction to the monsoon? Gulf moisture tap
is expected to develop on the west side of the high, so it all
depends on exactly where the high is located as we head into early
next week.
Temperatures remain very hot for the next couple days as Heat
Advisories are in effect for all of the lowlands. Highs will be
near daily records through Tuesday with 850mb temps of 36-37C
across the area even though our 500mb heights drop by Tuesday to
about 590 dam. As the high makes its comeback later in the week,
temps stay hot but not as scorching as early in the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025
Winds AOB 8kts expected this afternoon mainly from SW. This
evening, outflow boundary pushes through from the E-SE associated
with afternoon convection to the east. Winds shift E-SE behind the
boundary with gusts over 20kts possible and stronger gusts at KELP
closer to the source. An AWW could be issued as we track the
outflow moving towards KELP later today. BLDU may accompany the
outflow and reduce VIS, but confidence is low. The outflow winds
should gradually decrease as it progresses further west this
evening. The gustiness should last for roughly 3-4 hours according
to latest model guidance before subsiding overnight. Mainly SKC
expected other than smoky skies at KDMN and KTCS from ongoing
wildfires in the Gila Region.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025
Fire danger will be increasing Monday and especially Tuesday as
winds become breezy from the west. For the rest of today, light
winds are forecast from the W-SW underneath the upper high.
Rain/storm chances will be limited to the eastern Sacs and
Hudspeth county this PM. Strong downdraft/outflow winds may
accompany this activity. These outflows are forecast to merge into
a large cold pool that heads to the west this evening. Winds
behind the moisture boundary will be gusty up to 40 mph from E-SE
and could reach into the Gila Region and cause a significant wind
shift where the fires are burning (more likely the Trout Fire than
the Buck Fire). Few to scattered CU develop during the afternoon
in the Gila Region near the ongoing wildfires, including pyro-cu.
It cannot be ruled out that a pyro-cu grows into a thunderstorm
and produces dry lightning near the fires. Overnight RH recovery
will be poor to fair as the outflow winds subside after midnight.
For Monday, the upper high is forced southward by an approaching
upper trough. 20-ft winds increase to 10-15 mph from the west Mon
afternoon mainly W of the RGV. Very low RHs and modestly breezy
winds will create elevated fire danger on Monday. Tuesday will
have the strongest winds as the upper trough passes north and the
lee-side low strengthens. 20-ft winds near 20kts develop during
the afternoon from the west Tuesday afternoon for most of southern
NM. With critically dry fuels and very low RHs continuing, a low-
end Red Flag day is expected for SW NM. Lighter winds return for
Wednesday as ridging builds back in, but dry conditions persist
for the rest of the workweek. Temperatures will stay above normal
through the period.
Min RHs will be 5-12% through Wednesday, then rising slightly late
in the week. Vent rates will be good to excellent through the
week, excellent areawide Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 77 109 78 109 / 10 10 0 0
Sierra Blanca 67 101 71 103 / 20 10 0 0
Las Cruces 70 105 70 104 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 70 104 71 105 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 57 82 58 81 / 0 20 0 0
Truth or Consequences 72 105 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 67 98 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 68 108 69 106 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 67 104 68 102 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 77 105 78 105 / 10 0 0 0
Dell City 68 105 71 107 / 10 10 0 0
Fort Hancock 72 109 75 110 / 20 10 0 0
Loma Linda 70 100 72 100 / 10 10 0 0
Fabens 72 107 74 108 / 10 10 0 0
Santa Teresa 72 105 73 104 / 10 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 75 105 79 105 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 68 105 69 104 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 68 107 69 106 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 73 107 75 106 / 10 0 0 0
Orogrande 70 102 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 60 93 62 93 / 0 20 0 0
Mescalero 60 93 61 93 / 0 10 0 0
Timberon 57 91 59 91 / 0 20 0 0
Winston 59 96 59 94 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 67 103 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 65 104 67 103 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 60 100 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 65 102 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 64 105 64 101 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 64 100 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 68 101 69 97 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 70 105 69 103 / 10 0 0 0
Hachita 68 105 69 103 / 10 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 70 104 69 101 / 10 0 0 0
Cloverdale 68 99 67 97 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for
Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Western El Paso County.
NM...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Tuesday night for Central Grant
County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of
the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra
County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana
County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest
Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central
Tularosa Basin/White Sands.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande
Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces
BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson