Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
497 FXUS64 KEPZ 031047 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 447 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 446 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Isolated thunderstorm chances generally confined to the area mountains today and Thursday. - Rainfall chances to late Thursday night into Saturday as tropical moisture flows into the area. - Temperatures near normal except well below normal Friday and Saturday with the expected cloud cover. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1011 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Broad high pressure will stretch from the EPZ area to southern British Columbia tomorrow allowing temperatures to rise just a couple more degrees tomorrow compared to what we saw today. As far as storm coverage goes, we can expect similar conditions to what we saw today. Isolated storms will get triggered off the area mountains with maybe a few isolated storms in the lowlands. The elevated capping inversion will remain across much of the area in response to the high, inhibiting storms from growing too tall vertically. Can probably just expect mostly showery activity with a lightning strike or two possible. Did increase POPs to mentionable (~20-%) in the area mountains tomorrow. Thursday doesn`t look too impressive either right now. It looks very cloudy in response to incoming Tropical Storm Lorena, which will inhibit storms greatly that afternoon. Tropical Storm Lorena still generally looks to cross the Baja, NW Mexico and then progressing over the EPZ area by Saturday. Forecast certainty remains low at this time and will need to wait for newer data as we are still several days away. At the least, the general trend suggests above average moisture associated with TS Lorena which could give areawide rain chances Friday night into the day on Saturday if we can get some instability and lift from the storm. On the bright side, it looks like we`ll have a good amount of shear overhead which will help storms progress instead of backbuilding/raining over an area multiple times. By Sunday, we`ll be on the backside of the trough with clearer skies and less moisture but looks like we keep thunderstorm chances for the area mountains, perhaps isolated lowland storms that afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 446 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 VFR conditions through the period with SCT100 SCT-BKN250. Isolated BKN070CB -TSRA, mainly over the mountains, between 19Z-03Z. Non- thunderstorm surface winds south/southeast 8-12 knots this afternoon; variable winds AOB 8 knots the remainder of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 446 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Continued relatively dry today and Thursday, with just a few afternoon thunderstorms possible over the mountain zones. Tropical moisture begins moving in Thursday night and moreso on Friday. All zones will see a chance of rain by Friday into Saturday afternoon. Model differences still significant on path of tropical storm remnants. But local flash flooding is possible Friday and Saturday. Seasonable temperatures today and Thursday will cool below normal Friday and Saturday with the clouds and showers. Min RH: Lowlands...15-25% today and Thursday, increasing to 40-55% Friday and Saturday. Gila/Black Range...15-25% through Thursday, increasing to 45-60% Friday/Saturday. Sacramento Mtns...25-35% through Thursday, increasing to 55-70% Friday and Saturday. Vent rates good-very good today and Thursday, becoming fair-good Friday and Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 95 72 94 70 / 0 0 0 20 Sierra Blanca 88 62 89 62 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 90 65 90 65 / 0 0 0 20 Alamogordo 91 67 91 65 / 20 10 20 10 Cloudcroft 68 50 69 49 / 20 20 20 10 Truth or Consequences 90 65 90 64 / 10 10 10 10 Silver City 84 61 83 58 / 10 10 20 30 Deming 93 65 91 65 / 0 0 20 20 Lordsburg 90 66 88 64 / 0 10 20 30 West El Paso Metro 91 72 91 70 / 0 0 0 20 Dell City 91 64 93 65 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 93 68 93 70 / 0 0 0 20 Loma Linda 85 65 86 62 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 92 67 92 69 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Teresa 90 67 90 67 / 0 0 0 20 White Sands HQ 92 69 92 68 / 0 10 10 20 Jornada Range 90 66 90 65 / 10 10 10 20 Hatch 93 65 93 65 / 10 10 10 20 Columbus 92 67 90 68 / 0 0 20 30 Orogrande 90 65 90 64 / 0 0 10 10 Mayhill 79 56 81 56 / 20 20 20 10 Mescalero 80 55 81 54 / 20 20 20 10 Timberon 77 54 78 52 / 20 20 20 10 Winston 83 54 83 53 / 20 20 10 20 Hillsboro 90 62 90 61 / 10 10 10 20 Spaceport 90 64 90 62 / 10 10 10 20 Lake Roberts 85 55 84 53 / 20 20 20 20 Hurley 87 60 85 59 / 10 10 20 20 Cliff 91 62 90 61 / 20 10 20 20 Mule Creek 87 59 85 58 / 20 10 20 30 Faywood 86 62 85 60 / 10 10 20 20 Animas 90 65 87 65 / 0 10 30 40 Hachita 89 64 87 65 / 0 0 20 30 Antelope Wells 88 63 85 62 / 10 10 30 40 Cloverdale 84 61 79 60 / 10 10 40 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner