Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
952 FXUS64 KEPZ 282332 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 432 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 428 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025 - Warmer than average temperatures continue Saturday with dry and pleasant conditions. - A cold front will push in Sunday morning, bringing easterly breeziness that morning and temperatures becoming below normal. - Dry conditions, gentle warming, and light afternoon breezes through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 AM MST Fri Nov 28 2025 Generally benign weather will persist through Saturday as a low- intensity trough swings through the Great Basin. A regime of quasi- zonal flow aloft will prevail, leading to warm and dry conditions across the Borderland. Temperatures will peak today, ticking down slightly on Saturday as lower pressure heights start to dig into the Desert Southwest. The aforementioned Great Basin trough will slide into the Midwest, kicking off a backdoor cold front down the Great Plains. The front will surge southward and westward Saturday evening and into the overnight hours. Sunday`s high temperatures will see a decent reduction as a result, with locales out east seeing around 10F to 15F of cooling compared to Saturday. Areas west of the mountains won`t see quite as dramatic of a decrease, but will still be party to around 3F to 9F of cooling. Hot on the heels of the front, another system will attempt to swing into the Rockies Sunday night. Models now have this system side-swiping northern/central NM, keeping the best chances of precip localized beyond the Borderland. At most, the system will bring us a slight increase in westerly winds Monday afternoon. Another weak shortwave will keep temperatures moderated on Tuesday, keeping them near normal for early December. Temperatures will attempt to rebound a degree or two on Wednesday but their ambition will be short lived. A broad, positively tilted trough begins its tour of the Intermountain West on Tuesday night, setting its sights on NM late in the day on Wednesday. Run-to-run consistency on this feature remains lackluster, but a few models hint at the possibility of light precip, particularly out west. As such, did not deviate from the NBM at this juncture. The trough`s ejection from the Desert Southwest is drawn out, lasting into Friday as it digs further toward the Borderland. Should the solution pan out, cooler temperatures would be in store to finish out the work week, along with a chance for precip. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 428 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the forecst period. Winds will subside to begin the period, becoming AOB 8kts from W-SW. Light winds continue through tomorrow. Mainly SKC expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 119 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025 Dry conditions with generally light southwesterly to westerly winds expected through Saturday. A trough navigating into the Midwest will kick off a backdoor front Saturday evening through the overnight hours, resulting in an easterly wind shift across most zones on Sunday. Moisture will increase with the front, with minRH around 10 to 20 percent higher as compared to Saturday`s readings. Another system will side-swipe northern and central New Mexico Sunday night into Monday, but the Borderland will miss out on precipitation chances. Instead, a slight increase in westerly and southwesterly winds can be expected Monday afternoon, though magnitudes will stay well below elevated or critical thresholds. Another storm system will attempt to dip into the Borderland Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing low-end precipitation chances Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Vent rates will trend poor to fair, with some improvement on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 70 40 61 42 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 66 34 53 35 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 65 34 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 65 33 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 47 23 41 29 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 64 35 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 60 35 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 69 34 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 64 35 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 68 42 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 70 30 54 23 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 73 37 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 62 33 52 37 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 70 38 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 67 38 58 37 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 67 39 58 41 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 65 30 57 28 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 68 32 61 29 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 70 37 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 64 35 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 61 22 51 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 58 25 52 29 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 57 24 46 25 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 61 25 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 65 35 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 65 31 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 62 27 56 26 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 63 32 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 66 29 63 28 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 63 28 60 27 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 63 36 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 67 35 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 66 33 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 68 36 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 61 40 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson