Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
682 FXUS64 KEPZ 212345 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 445 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 327 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025 - Fair and dry weather Saturday, with breezy to gusty east winds in the late afternoon and evening. - Scattered rain showers, mostly light, Saturday night through Sunday morning, mostly across central New Mexico. Light snow above 7500 ft. - Fair weather conditions expected next week including a dry and pleasant Thanksgiving Day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1008 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025 Today, tonight, and much of Saturday, we sit between Pacific storm systems. As such, we will experience typical fair weather fall conditions. Temperatures at and slightly warmer than average, dry air will mean sunny and mostly clear skies today, and light winds in weak flow patterns. Tonight the next Pacific storm system begin to turn east as it digs south off the SCAL coast. It will cut across the N Baja Saturday, and slowly track ENE into S AZ Saturday night. This deep and slow trajectory will keep the effects of the system to our west for the daylight hours on Saturday, as precipitation stays over the Baja, Sonora, and SW AZ. Thus, Saturday will be another fair-weather and seasonal type fall day, with slightly above average temperatures, dry conditions, with increasing clouds, and generally light winds. Saturday evening and moreso, overnight into Sunday morning, the Pacific low will lift NE across Central AZ, and towards the Four Corners by Sunday afternoon. This passage, to our west, will allow for precipitation to form over our region in the evening hours (west of the Rio) Saturday evening, and spread east, areawide, overnight into the morning on Sunday. Ahead of this, east winds will be on the increase, in response to a surface trough deepening to our west, associated with the upper low. The area of strong winds will be over the Otero Mesa, and west slopes of Franklins, Organs, Florida, and other southern sky islands. Winds should pick up late afternoon, and strengthen in the evening and overnight hours over these areas. This will import some low level moisture, as the system itself (to our west) slings in some mid and upper level subtropical moisture. Weak surface convergence, PVA, and diffluent flow aloft will all work with the moisture to produce showers, and possibly a few storms during this period. Snow levels start out above 10kft and lower to 8000 ft (gila) 9000ft SACS. That means mostly rain, and only very high elevation snow. Amounts will be generally light, both rain and snow. 1/3" rain / 2-4" snow above 8500ft. Thus not a lot of impact from either. This entire storm system begins to lift out and move away late Sunday morning, with drier air quickly moving in from the S and SW, and spreading N and NE across the areas into the early afternoon hours on Sunday. Thus, and end to rain/snow chances midday Sunday, with dissipating clouds, and a return to west winds. Monday through Friday of next week looks like a stretch of fair and dry weather conditions across the SW. We will be under a deep dry west flow pattern, with minor broad ridging aloft. This will mean a dry week, with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will run very steady, and a few degrees warmer than normal. Winds will be mostly light. Thanksgiving day looks to be quite nice. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 436 PM MST Fri Nov 21 2025 VFR conditions through the period with FEW180 SCT-BKN250. Surface winds variable mainly southwest 5-8 knots, becoming east/northeast AOB 7 knots after 03Z, and then east/southeast 8-12G18 knots after 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1008 AM MST Fri Nov 21 2025 The area sits between Pacific storm systems, with our last one having moved out yesterday afternoon, and our next one due Saturday evening. Thus, for today and much of Saturday, the region will see fair and dry weather conditions. Clouds will be on the increase tonight, after a sunny day Friday. Temperatures will remain a bit above the daily average, and RH will creep lower, but remain well above any critical threshold. Tonight the clouds increase from the west, as the next Pacific low pressure storm system begins to work east out of SCAL. For Saturday, the precipitation associated with the system will hold west over AZ, and our region will continue with dry weather. Winds will shift to easterly across the area, and increase to breezy in the late afternoon hours. Overnight, wind speeds will increase and become gusty from the east, similar to a backdoor cold front passage. We expect to see precipitation from the system to move over western NM in the evening hours Saturday, from the west. Other showers, and possibly a few storms, will work in over S Central areas over the late evening hours, from the SW. The sweep spot for any precipitation will be Saturday evening through early Sunday afternoon. During that time, expect rain below 7500 ft (up to 1/3"), and snow levels to drop to 7500-8000 ft, with light amounts, up to 2-4" above 9500 ft. Sunday afternoon, the system exits, as it lifts to the NE and into Colorado. We will see a dry air regime return on cool NW flow across the region. The work week ahead should stay dry all week, with temperatures running close to normal. Winds will be generally light, and RH will stay above 25 percent each afternoon, with good to excellent overnight recovery, despite the dry conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 41 70 50 66 / 0 0 30 10 Sierra Blanca 37 68 45 65 / 0 0 20 10 Las Cruces 35 65 42 60 / 0 0 40 10 Alamogordo 35 65 41 60 / 0 0 50 30 Cloudcroft 27 48 30 39 / 0 0 60 40 Truth or Consequences 38 62 42 58 / 0 0 70 20 Silver City 35 59 38 50 / 0 0 80 20 Deming 36 67 41 61 / 0 0 50 10 Lordsburg 35 63 41 57 / 0 0 70 10 West El Paso Metro 43 68 49 63 / 0 0 30 10 Dell City 33 68 44 67 / 0 0 30 20 Fort Hancock 40 75 49 71 / 0 0 20 10 Loma Linda 39 63 45 58 / 0 0 30 20 Fabens 38 72 47 67 / 0 0 20 10 Santa Teresa 37 67 45 62 / 0 0 30 10 White Sands HQ 41 67 48 62 / 0 0 40 20 Jornada Range 32 65 43 60 / 0 0 50 20 Hatch 33 68 43 62 / 0 0 60 10 Columbus 38 68 44 63 / 0 0 30 10 Orogrande 33 65 45 60 / 0 0 50 20 Mayhill 30 57 34 52 / 0 0 60 40 Mescalero 29 60 33 51 / 0 0 60 50 Timberon 28 55 33 48 / 0 0 50 30 Winston 27 55 33 51 / 0 0 70 20 Hillsboro 36 61 40 57 / 0 0 70 20 Spaceport 31 64 40 59 / 0 0 60 20 Lake Roberts 30 60 34 50 / 0 0 80 40 Hurley 33 60 37 53 / 0 0 70 20 Cliff 32 66 40 57 / 0 10 80 30 Mule Creek 31 62 38 52 / 0 10 80 40 Faywood 36 60 40 53 / 0 0 70 20 Animas 33 65 42 60 / 0 10 60 10 Hachita 31 63 38 59 / 0 0 50 10 Antelope Wells 34 64 40 60 / 0 0 40 10 Cloverdale 39 60 42 52 / 0 10 70 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner