Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
937 FXUS64 KEPZ 171753 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1153 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1126 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening, with the highest chances over the Gila National Forest (40-60%). - Marginal risk of excessive rainfall for today now includes the lowlands. - Dry, hot weather return to lowlands by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1126 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 The highly efficient rainfall and convective activity from yesterday appears to have resulted in a slightly more stable environment across the region today (MU CAPE 500-1000 J/kg), with the persistent cloud cover also hindering some of the thermal instability. Still, anticipating the afternoon to gradually become more active as a mid to upper level shortwave trough transitions across the area and combines with the available moisture (PWATs 1.1-1.2") to produce another round of showers and thunderstorms. Although the highest convective chances (40-60%) will reside over the Gila National Forecast today, isolated to scattered chances (20- 30%) remain over the lowlands as the aforementioned disturbance tracks aloft. Models have been struggling to resolve this upper level feature, but some of the CAMs do indicate an additional 0.5-1.5" of rainfall over the area which could result in localized flooding, especially over areas more heavily impacted by the weekend storms. With this into account, WPC has expanded the Day 1 ERO to now include eastern portions of the CWA previously not included in the Marginal risk. The convective activity is forecast to decrease throughout the night tonight as the trough then shifts southwest into northern Mexico while drier air begins to filter in (PWATs <1.0"). A strong ridge will then build over the Four Corners region through mid to late week allowing for drier and warmer conditions to return, though isolated convective chances persist over the mountains. Temperatures are progged to reach the triple digits over the lowlands again by mid week, with heat then becoming our primary concern. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 VFR conditions will generally prevail through the cycle at area terminal. However, an approaching upper level disturbance will bring convective chances to the TAF sites this afternoon/evening which could result in strong winds and brief visibility restrictions. Otherwise expect light southeasterly winds today, then variable winds overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1126 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain in the forecast through this evening. The main threat from the storms will be strong and gusty outflow winds. Away from the thunderstorms our winds will remain well below critical levels through the end of the work week. Min RH`s will drop to around 20% on Tuesday, then ranging from the low to mid teens in the lowlands to the 20`s in area mountains mid to late week. With the drier air moving in, we will see lower rain chances for the remainder of the work week, with chances mainly confined to area mountains. Ventilation rates will generally range from fair to good over the next couple of days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 96 72 100 / 20 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 65 93 65 96 / 20 0 0 0 Las Cruces 66 95 66 98 / 20 0 0 0 Alamogordo 68 94 70 98 / 20 10 0 10 Cloudcroft 50 72 52 75 / 30 20 10 20 Truth or Consequences 69 93 70 98 / 20 0 0 0 Silver City 62 87 64 91 / 40 10 10 30 Deming 68 95 68 100 / 30 0 0 0 Lordsburg 69 94 70 98 / 20 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 73 96 73 99 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 69 97 68 100 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 73 100 73 103 / 20 0 0 0 Loma Linda 67 90 68 93 / 20 0 0 0 Fabens 71 97 70 99 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 70 94 69 98 / 20 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 72 95 73 100 / 20 0 0 0 Jornada Range 68 94 69 99 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 68 97 69 102 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 71 96 71 99 / 30 0 0 0 Orogrande 66 93 67 97 / 20 0 0 0 Mayhill 55 86 57 89 / 30 10 10 20 Mescalero 54 83 56 87 / 30 30 10 20 Timberon 53 82 54 85 / 30 10 0 10 Winston 59 86 60 90 / 20 10 0 20 Hillsboro 66 92 67 97 / 20 0 0 10 Spaceport 66 93 67 98 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 56 86 58 90 / 50 20 10 60 Hurley 63 89 64 94 / 30 10 0 10 Cliff 65 94 67 98 / 60 20 10 20 Mule Creek 63 91 66 94 / 50 20 10 30 Faywood 65 89 66 94 / 20 0 0 10 Animas 69 95 70 98 / 30 0 0 0 Hachita 68 93 68 97 / 30 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 68 93 67 96 / 30 0 10 0 Cloverdale 65 89 65 92 / 30 0 10 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...88-Nieves