Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
446
FXUS64 KEPZ 251858
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1258 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025
...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Potential for heavy rainfall with localized flooding continues
through Thursday. Flood watches are in effect for all areas
through Wednesday, and may be issued for some areas again
Thursday.
- Showers/thunderstorms will be widespread over the area
through Friday, becoming more isolated Saturday and Sunday.
- Lingering monsoon moisture will allow for daily afternoon
showers and thunderstorms through early next week especially
in the higher terrain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025
Monsoonal moisture plume still squarely over far west TX and the
eastern 3/4 of NM, per latest water-vapor satellite imagery. There
are already some indications of its being stretched and becoming a
bit more diffuse. However, copious moisture is still in place for
the moment, as evidenced by the 1.39" of precipitable water on the
12Z EPZ sounding. Upper-level forcing a bit of a question mark, as
right-entrance region of H25 jet now over northern NM continues to
pull away, but remnant MCV`s, along with clearing and associated
destabilization (and eventually outflow boundaries), especially
west of I-25, should be enough for another round of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of additional heavy
rainfall into the evening. Nearly the entire CWA remains in a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall today, with an area-wide Flash
Flood Watch in effect through midnight.
Zooming in a bit, HRRR runs and NBM/WPC QPF show a local max in
precip this evening, driven by outflow boundaries moving in from
the NW, between 02-06Z, over Dona Ana County and the El Paso
metro, so this area will need to be watched for urban flooding
concerns. Same guidance keeps most activity to the east of the
Trout burn scar, but that area remains particularly vulnerable.
For Thursday, broad, weak troughing aloft remains in place
upstream. Although column RH progs show the monsoonal plume
becoming more diffuse as drier air works in from the west, mid-
level steering flow becomes rather weak, so storm motions will be
very slow (<10mph), leading to particular concerns over the
Sacramento Mountains where QPF amounts are highest, especially for
the Salt and Seven Springs burn scars. With wet soils from recent
rains, and generally scattered storm coverage, the entire CWA is
in a Marginal Risk on the latest ERO. More targeted Flash Flood
Watches will be considered for Thursday by the next shift.
Lingering moisture over southern NM and Far West TX keeps storm
chances (widely scattered lowland/numerous mountain) in play for
Friday, but QPF amounts trend down as column moisture decreases.
Heading into the weekend, an H5 high center sets up near the Four
Corners, making for the two relatively driest days of the period.
Afternoon temps heat up to the mid-upper 90s F for the lowlands,
but still a couple degrees shy of climo in this typically hottest
time of the year, with minor heat risk concerns.
Ensemble/cluster guidance in good agreement that the pattern
shifts wetter again for the early-mid part of next week. A back-
door cold front could make it through at least part of the area
(~40% chance) late Sunday/Monday, bumping surface dewpoints back
up. Meanwhile, the southern part of the aforementioned upper high
weakens, allowing mid-level Gulf moisture to flow up from the SE.
Temps cool back off a few degrees as a result as well.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025
Remnant early morning showers and thunderstorms have waned
considerably during the past hour or two, but the next crop, more
diurnally driven, can already be seen on radar developing to the
northwest of KTCS. With widespread rain/thunder chances remaining
in the forecast today, main aviation challenge will again be
timing of impacts at each terminal; leaned on latest HRRR run and
LAV guidance in this regard. Relatively higher confidence for
timing at KDMN/KLRU, with short-term guidance depicting storms to
be triggered by outflow moving southeast from the higher terrain
of the Gila mountains this evening. Very brief IFR at all
terminals could occur in heavier showers, but duration too short
for inclusion in TAF`s. Activity should end by around 06Z, with
only mid-high debris cloud and light winds through late tomorrow
morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1219 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025
Overall, not expecting any critical (or least, very limited in
extent) fire weather areas for the next 7 days. There could be
some areas of elevated fire weather on Saturday and Sunday for the
Gila, driven by min RH dropping below 15 percent, but 20-foot
winds stay well below critical levels. Recent and expected
rainfall is keeping progged ERCs limited to the 50-75th
percentile, even in the Gila. Heavy rainfall over the region will
be the bigger concern for area burn scars and flash flooding like
the Trout fire burn area and Seven Springs burn area through
Friday and again early in the new work week as moisture returns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 71 90 72 91 / 60 60 50 40
Sierra Blanca 64 83 64 84 / 60 70 50 70
Las Cruces 64 87 64 88 / 70 50 40 30
Alamogordo 64 86 64 86 / 70 50 40 50
Cloudcroft 48 65 48 64 / 60 70 30 70
Truth or Consequences 65 88 67 89 / 60 30 20 30
Silver City 59 83 60 83 / 50 40 30 50
Deming 66 91 66 92 / 60 50 40 40
Lordsburg 64 91 65 91 / 30 40 30 40
West El Paso Metro 71 87 72 86 / 60 60 50 40
Dell City 66 85 67 87 / 60 60 40 60
Fort Hancock 69 90 71 90 / 60 70 50 70
Loma Linda 64 80 64 80 / 60 60 50 50
Fabens 69 88 69 88 / 60 60 50 50
Santa Teresa 68 86 69 86 / 60 60 50 40
White Sands HQ 69 87 71 86 / 70 60 50 50
Jornada Range 64 86 64 87 / 70 50 40 40
Hatch 64 89 65 89 / 70 50 40 40
Columbus 68 90 68 89 / 50 50 50 30
Orogrande 65 84 66 84 / 60 60 40 50
Mayhill 53 75 53 75 / 60 60 30 80
Mescalero 52 75 52 75 / 60 70 30 70
Timberon 50 72 50 72 / 60 50 40 70
Winston 51 80 53 81 / 60 40 20 50
Hillsboro 59 85 60 87 / 70 50 30 50
Spaceport 61 85 62 86 / 70 40 30 40
Lake Roberts 55 85 56 86 / 40 40 30 50
Hurley 60 86 61 87 / 50 50 30 40
Cliff 61 92 62 92 / 30 30 20 40
Mule Creek 58 90 59 89 / 10 20 10 30
Faywood 61 85 63 84 / 60 50 30 50
Animas 64 91 64 91 / 40 40 30 40
Hachita 64 88 63 88 / 50 50 40 40
Antelope Wells 64 88 64 88 / 60 50 40 50
Cloverdale 64 87 63 86 / 40 40 30 40
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for Eastern/Central El
Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio
Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.
NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for Central Grant
County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa
Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the
Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento
Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast
Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region
Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the
Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa
Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below
7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...99-ABQ