564
FXUS64 KEPZ 051726
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1026 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1024 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

 - Very warm and dry conditions will continue into the weekend.

 - Daily high temperatures at or above records, with daily max
   temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above average.

 - Elevated fire weather concerns across the Borderland today as
   winds will be slightly higher than yesterday and humidity
   slightly lower. Overall conditions will still fall short of
   critical levels.

 - Temperatures will cool off Sunday and Monday, though the
   westward progress of a back door cold front is becoming less
   certain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

Very little change to the forecast overall. We hit 83 at ELP
yesterday which lined up well with the old MET and MAV MOS
guidance and the NBM 75th Percentile grids. Kept hedging slightly
above guidance for the next few days.

A weak shortwave trough rippling through the central Rockies today
will give winds a slight boost this afternoon, mainly a concern
for fire weather. This shortwave will tend to flatten out the
ridge to our south, with zonal flow persisting into the weekend.
Falling heights will allow temperatures to moderate by a degree or
two Thursday through Saturday, but still expect upper-70s in the
lowland deserts and 80 or higher in the lowest elevations,
including El Paso. This will be at or near daily high temperature
records.

Models and ensembles have trended a little slower with the
backdoor cold front early next week, keeping it mostly out of New
Mexico until Monday morning, and it may not push any farther west
than the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains. Part of the reason
for this is a weak shortwave trough may roll into Arizona and New
Mexico from the west Monday morning, enhancing westerly flow.
Areas from the Rio Grande west could be a little breezy Monday
afternoon as a result.

The GFS, particularly the 06Z run, is trying to squeeze out some
QPF over the Sacramentos as the shortwave trough rolls by, but it
will be carrying very little moisture. Precip chances are too low
to mention at this point. Any precip would likely be very scant
and snow levels would likely be 8000 feet or higher.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

VFR conditions through the period at all terminals. Warm, dry, and
fair weather to continue. Skies SKC. No VSBY restrictions. Winds
mostly SW to W in the 5-10kt range with gusts 15-20kt range
through 02Z...then W to NW or VRBL less than 7kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 336 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

Enhanced fire weather conditions today as humidity drops slightly,
and winds increase slightly this afternoon.

A weak shortwave trough moving through the central Rockies today
will help boost winds to 10-15 mph at the 20-foot level, with a
few gusts around 20 mph possible in the higher terrain and exposed
ridge tops. Temperatures will remain 10 to 20 degrees above
normal, or near daily records. Slightly drier air filtering in
will drop minimum RH values into the single digits for the
lowlands, and lower-10s in the higher elevations.

Winds will ease up a little for the lowlands on Thursday, though
RH values will remain extremely dry through the weekend.

A back door cold front may struggle to push west of the
Sacramento Mountains early next week. Though conditions will
improve for the Sacramento Mountains, southwest New Mexico may be
a concern for fire weather as it will remain drier and warmer
there, while a weak shortwave trough may boost southwesterly
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  82  43  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            81  42  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               81  37  80  38 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               78  35  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               56  35  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    79  36  76  37 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              69  38  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   79  34  79  34 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                75  32  76  34 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       81  45  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                82  35  82  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             84  39  84  42 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               75  45  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   84  39  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             80  38  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           80  45  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            80  34  77  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    83  33  79  34 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 81  38  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                78  38  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  70  39  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                65  34  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 66  33  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  73  28  70  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                79  36  76  37 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                80  31  76  33 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             67  30  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   72  33  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    76  25  76  25 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               70  28  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  73  38  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   78  33  79  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  78  33  80  34 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           79  36  80  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               74  42  74  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird