181
FXUS64 KEPZ 031724
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1124 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1124 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

-  Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly east of El Paso this
   afternoon and early evening.

-  The monsoon takes a break, with high pressure building aloft,
   promoting hot and dry conditions through at least the end of
   the week.

-  Lowland high temperatures will reach triple digits each
   afternoon through next week. A Heat Advisory for El Paso and
   the Lower Valley is in effect for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Very stagnant pattern setting up with strong upper high, typical
of our June heatwaves, over NM for the entire period. Little
differences between models with main synoptic features, main
difference is with moisture later in the period. Besides a few
storms this afternoon SE of a ALM-ELP line, do not expect any
thunderstorms in the area at least through Tuesday. The very dry
air wraps around the high and drops dew points into the 20s and
30s by Monday. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be at or
above 100 for most of the lowlands with 105-107 expected in the El
Paso area and lower elevations of the Rio Grande Valley. NBM temps
continued to look about 2-4 degrees too cool on the lowlands and
raised up closer to MOS guidance. Will keep Heat Advisory going
as is, but there may be a need to bring it into Dona Ana and Luna
counties for Tuesday. There will be some relief at night with
fairly light winds and low dew points allowing temps to fall into
the 60s for the lowlands and lower to mid 70s around El Paso.


The upper high will eventually wrap some moisture around it with
mainly some build ups over the higher terrain Wed with a slight
drop of a degree or 2, at least for the RGV. Moisture gradually
gets better as we go into the weekend with isolated to low chance
coverage in the mountains Thu and then by Fri and into the
weekend, enough moisture will spread onto the lowlands where
outflows can help to trigger a few storms into the early evening
hours. Temperatures will remain around the upper 90s to around
105.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

P6SM SKC-SCT100-120 with just some isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon east of a KELP-KALM line. Wind gusts to 40KTS and brief
heavy rain will be the main concerns. Skies go clear by sunrise
with mainly west winds 5-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Hot and very dry conditions expected through midweek with high
temperatures in the lowlands getting above 100 degrees and min
RH`s falling into the 5-12% range for all areas except in the Sacs
where some mid to upper teens are expected. Some moisture will
start to work around the upper high that will be nearly stationary
over NM by midweek. There may be some dry lightning Wed/Thu in the
higher elevations before deeper moisture moves in by Fri and into
the weekend.  Winds generally light through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  74 105  76 106 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            70 100  70  98 /  10   0   0  10
Las Cruces               67 102  69 103 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               69  99  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               54  77  54  78 /   0  10   0  10
Truth or Consequences    68 101  69 102 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              64  93  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   65 102  66 104 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                66 100  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       72 103  74 103 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                69 103  69 103 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             71 106  72 104 /  10   0   0  10
Loma Linda               69  95  70  99 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   70 105  72 106 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             71 102  71 103 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           74 101  74 102 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            67 101  67 102 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    66 101  67 104 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 71 102  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                68 103  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  58  88  59  90 /   0  10   0  10
Mescalero                58  90  58  89 /   0  10   0  10
Timberon                 55  85  56  86 /   0  10   0   0
Winston                  56  91  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                65  99  65 100 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                64 102  66  98 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             50  94  51  95 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   60  96  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    55  99  56 101 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               53  96  54  98 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  64  95  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   65 100  66 102 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  64  98  62 101 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           65 100  67 100 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               64  94  67  96 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
     El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
     Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz