Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
881 FXUS64 KEPZ 151303 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 603 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 439 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Dry and warm conditions again on Saturday. - Pacific low brings breezy southwest winds area wide and slight rain chances across western New Mexico on Sunday. - Cooler temperatures next week behind a Pacific cold front, with precipitation chances increasing midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025 One more warm and dry day on deck for Saturday before a more active, fall-like weather pattern begins. Ridging flow aloft hangs on over the region on Saturday, promoting warm, above normal temperatures. Temperatures will once again run 12 to 15 degrees above normal for mid-November, threatening to tie or break some daily records. Forecast high for El Paso is 82, which would tie the daily record (1981) if we get there. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph under mostly sunny skies. Pacific closed low currently off the southern California coast will move ashore on Sunday, progressing east across the Great Basin. Jet streak well ahead of the trough axis suggests the system will take a northerly trajectory and open into a wave during this timeframe. Shortwave at the base of the system may clip western NM with some rain showers Sunday afternoon, but areas east of the Continental Divide should remain dry with temperatures still above normal (lowland highs in the mid-to-upper 70s). The more impactful feature with this system will be the pre- frontal winds. Breezy conditions expected area wide Sunday afternoon, with southwest winds 15 to 25 mph across Southern New Mexico and far west Texas. New Mexico`s I-10/I-25 corridors could see gusts as high as 40 mph, with patchy blowing dust. Pacific cool front moves through on Monday, resulting in a subtle 5-10 degrees cool down. We`ll still be low-end breezy Monday afternoon with winds out of the west 10 to 20 mph. Mild conditions on Tuesday, with lowland highs closer to normal in the upper 60`s/lower 70`s. GFS and ECMWF deterministic solutions in good agreement for our next widespread precipitation chances. Closed low pressure system tracks across the Southwest U.S. on Wednesday, allowing for rain showers (and high elevation >8000 feet snow). Latest run of the NBM reduced QPF quite a bit, suggesting rain totals closer to the 0.05-0.10" range for the majority of the I-10 corridor. Mountain locations like Cloudcroft and Emory Pass could see some snow, but generally light accumulations being forecast at this time. We`ll keep an eye on the evolution of this next system over the next few days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Our current unlimited ceilings will continue through the day, but we will have a few high clouds drift across the region from time to time. Our light winds this morning will come around to the southwest by late morning and continue into the evening hours. We may have some low end wind gusts at KDMN, but they will last only a few hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 530 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 We will continue our warm and dry conditions today, with min RH`s in the upper teens in the lowlands and in the 20`s in area mountains. On Sunday an approaching upper level storm system will give us some breezy winds, but they should stay below critical levels. The system will bring a slight chance for rain to the Gila Region and raise our min RH`s 5 to 10 percent across the region. Then on Monday we will return to our warm and dry conditions, but then on Tuesday and Wednesday, we will have another approaching upper level storm system. This second system will give a chance for precipitation in both the lowlands and the mountains and it will also give us some low end breezy winds both Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 54 79 53 73 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 48 75 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 47 74 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 46 75 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 38 53 33 47 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 48 72 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 45 64 39 60 / 0 10 10 0 Deming 46 76 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 46 71 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 54 76 52 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 44 79 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 51 82 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 50 70 46 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 50 79 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 48 76 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 55 76 50 70 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 46 74 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 45 77 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 50 78 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 45 74 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 43 66 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 41 65 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 39 62 35 55 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 38 64 33 61 / 0 0 10 0 Hillsboro 47 71 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 43 73 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 40 63 34 60 / 0 20 10 0 Hurley 43 68 38 63 / 0 10 10 0 Cliff 43 70 40 66 / 0 20 10 0 Mule Creek 43 65 37 61 / 10 30 10 0 Faywood 46 68 41 63 / 0 10 0 0 Animas 48 73 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 47 73 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 46 74 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 66 44 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice