Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
561 FXUS64 KEPZ 111127 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 527 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms today, mostly limited to western New Mexico. Rain chances increase again starting Wednesday as moisture returns, posing a risk of flash flooding area wide. - Triple-digit heat for the Rio Grande Valley and Tularosa Basin today. Temperatures will cool closer to normal over the next few days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026 UL high will continue to sit over the Four Corners for Tuesday, which will continue to limit precip across the area. With that said, we will be a little hotter tomorrow with a little bit more moisture. Although most locations will remain dry and our best storm chances will be over the Gila, the HRRR and the NAM Nest do show a bit more storm coverage over the lowlands, especially west of the Continental Divide. I`m not sure I buy the eastward extent of the HRRR, which brings storms as far east as El Paso, but I did pull up POPs toward the Luna / Dona Ana County line. We`re still on track for a pattern change for Wednesday. The Four Corners high will shift toward the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast, bringing in southerly flow for New Mexico and Far West Texas. The GFS also continues to hint at the passage of a weak wave Wednesday night into Thursday. Either way, this pattern will persist into the weekend with rain and storm chances covering most of the area. After that, the UL high will start making a westward shift, but how far west is yet to be seen. The GFS and Euro also show an eastward wave moving through Northern Mexico Sunday, but its influence may only reach as far north as the International Border. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026 VMC this morning with skies SKC-FEW120 and surface winds 160-190 at 5 to 10 knots. Wind shifting to the SW 210-280 this afternoon, with isolated TCU and TSRA across SW NM between 21-03Z. Included mention of VCTS at KDMN, but still not confident enough to include it for RGV sites due to low coverage. Skies SCT-BKN100CB this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026 Low fire danger over the next several days due to wetness of local forests. Scattered (30-50%) thunderstorms for Gila NF, isolated (10-20%) for Lincoln NF today. Min RH 20-30% with winds shifting to the SW 5 to 10 mph this afternoon. Increasing moisture will allow for more widespread rain chances through the rest of the week. Storms will pose a risk of localized flash flooding and erratic outflow winds over mountains. Prevailing southwest winds 10 to 15 mph next couple days with Good ventilation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 99 73 96 / 10 0 30 10 Sierra Blanca 69 95 66 91 / 10 10 40 10 Las Cruces 69 97 68 93 / 10 0 10 10 Alamogordo 72 99 70 95 / 0 10 30 10 Cloudcroft 55 75 53 71 / 0 20 30 20 Truth or Consequences 71 97 70 93 / 20 20 20 30 Silver City 61 87 61 83 / 20 30 30 60 Deming 68 96 67 93 / 20 10 20 20 Lordsburg 67 91 66 87 / 60 20 40 40 West El Paso Metro 75 98 74 95 / 10 0 30 10 Dell City 72 100 71 97 / 0 0 30 10 Fort Hancock 75 100 74 97 / 10 10 40 10 Loma Linda 68 91 67 88 / 10 0 20 10 Fabens 73 98 72 96 / 10 0 40 10 Santa Teresa 72 96 71 93 / 20 0 30 10 White Sands HQ 74 98 73 94 / 10 10 20 10 Jornada Range 70 97 70 94 / 10 10 20 10 Hatch 71 101 70 97 / 10 10 10 10 Columbus 73 95 71 93 / 20 20 40 20 Orogrande 70 96 68 93 / 0 0 20 10 Mayhill 60 87 59 84 / 0 20 10 20 Mescalero 59 86 58 82 / 10 20 20 30 Timberon 56 84 55 81 / 0 10 20 10 Winston 60 88 59 84 / 20 50 20 80 Hillsboro 67 95 64 91 / 20 30 10 40 Spaceport 69 98 67 93 / 10 10 20 20 Lake Roberts 57 88 57 83 / 20 40 30 70 Hurley 63 90 62 87 / 20 20 20 40 Cliff 64 93 65 89 / 20 20 30 60 Mule Creek 61 88 63 84 / 30 30 40 60 Faywood 65 91 64 88 / 20 20 20 40 Animas 67 89 66 87 / 70 30 40 50 Hachita 67 91 66 88 / 60 20 30 20 Antelope Wells 66 88 65 86 / 40 50 30 30 Cloverdale 62 81 62 79 / 60 50 50 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt