318
FXUS64 KEPZ 261900
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
100 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

It seems that the summer monsoon season is in full swing. Showers
and storms will be common this afternoon and again Thursday before
coverage decreases a bit Friday. High temps will drop some
Thursday thanks to clouds and rain but shoot back up Friday. The
weekend and much of next week will feature rather warm days with
daily chances for showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Moisture continues to increase under our ridge with the morning
EPZ sounding revealing PW values of 1.31". This is right in line
with what models have been advertising for the past few days and
we will see these numbers climb a bit more into tonight and
tomorrow. With this enhanced amount of moisture, expect storms
that pop up the rest of today and tomorrow to be very impressive
rain makers. Early convection over the Sacramentos today has
already seen cells produce rain rates close to three inches per
hour. The steering flow today remains rather light under the
ridge, so combining high precip rates with slow storm motion will
enhance the Flash Flood potential throughout the afternoon and
evening.

Shortwave energy will eject out of the Pacific Northwest and
cross to our north Thursday which will help to weaken the upper
ridge and keep precipitation chances across the region as we
continue to tap the rich moisture supply. There could be somewhat
better dynamics Thursday, so locations that miss out on rain
today will get another chance tomorrow. I do expect Thursday to
begin with a fair amount of debris cloud cover left over from
todays activity. This will work in tandem with lowering heights
and additional storms to bring temps back down several degrees
Thursday. However some slightly drier air will follow the upper
shortwave, which will allow for another rather hot day Friday.

As we settle into the weekend and the early stages of next week
things are looking more and more like a true monsoon across the
region. The upper ridge is progged to slowly build eastwards
allowing for southerly flow into the desert southwest. 700-500mb
moisture profiles show healthy surges into the region as PW values
in general look to remain well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period across all
of the TAF sites with CIG BKN070-OVC120 after 21Z. It will be
breezy 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 24 kts and variable in
direction between between 21 and 03Z Thursday. The winds will
decrease to below 10 kts while generally out from the southwest
thereafter. There is a good chance for TS across the terminals
between 21Z and 03Z Thursday. These TS could produce strong
erratic gusty winds, which reduced VSBY at times (not mentioned in
the TAFs). Otherwise, there will be no reduction in the VSBY
across the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across the entire
area through this evening. Individual storms could produce strong
gusty erratic winds and heavy rainfall. The 20ft winds will be
generally light to breezy and temperatures will stay above
normal. Tonight recovery will be good to excellent. For Thursday,
showers and thunderstorms will continue especially in afternoon
and in the evening. The 20ft winds will continue to be light to
low end breezy and the temperatures somewhat above the average.
Thursday overnight recovery will be fair to excellent. For the
rest of the period, there will be continued chances for showers
and thunderstorms especially in the mountains and areas along an
west of the Continental Divide. The winds will be breezy
especially in the afternoon while the temperatures continue to be
above the normal as least until Saturday.

Min RH today will be between 18 and 22% in the lowlands and
between 24 and 44% in the mountains. The min RHs on Thursday will
increase 2 to 3% in the lowlands and 4 to 5% in the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  81 102  82 105 /  80  40  50  20
Sierra Blanca            70  96  72  98 /  70  30  40  40
Las Cruces               75 100  76 103 /  90  40  50  10
Alamogordo               71  97  71 100 /  60  50  40  20
Cloudcroft               55  74  56  76 /  60  70  40  40
Truth or Consequences    75  95  74  99 /  60  60  40  10
Silver City              67  92  67  93 /  50  50  30  20
Deming                   74 100  74 102 /  60  40  50  10
Lordsburg                73  99  72  99 /  30  30  30  10
West El Paso Metro       78 100  79 103 /  80  30  50  20
Dell City                73 100  74 102 /  50  30  30  30
Fort Hancock             74 102  75 105 /  70  40  50  30
Loma Linda               71  93  72  96 /  70  40  40  30
Fabens                   76 101  77 105 /  80  40  50  20
Santa Teresa             75  98  76 101 /  80  40  60  20
White Sands HQ           78  97  79 100 /  80  40  60  20
Jornada Range            72  97  71 100 /  70  50  50  10
Hatch                    73 100  73 102 /  70  50  50  10
Columbus                 76 100  79 102 /  70  30  60  10
Orogrande                73  97  74 100 /  70  40  50  20
Mayhill                  60  85  61  87 /  50  70  40  40
Mescalero                59  85  59  87 /  60  70  40  30
Timberon                 57  84  58  86 /  60  60  40  40
Winston                  62  87  60  89 /  60  80  40  20
Hillsboro                70  92  70  96 /  60  70  40  20
Spaceport                70  96  68  98 /  70  60  50  10
Lake Roberts             63  91  63  92 /  50  60  30  20
Hurley                   67  95  67  97 /  50  40  30  10
Cliff                    67 101  66 102 /  40  40  10  10
Mule Creek               70  94  69  94 /  30  30  10  10
Faywood                  68  94  69  96 /  60  50  40  10
Animas                   73  99  72  99 /  30  30  40  20
Hachita                  72  99  73 100 /  50  30  50  20
Antelope Wells           71  97  71  97 /  70  50  60  40
Cloverdale               68  93  68  92 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ410-411.

     Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...27-Laney