Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
498
FXUS64 KEPZ 151756
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1156 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1155 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026
- Increasing moisture and a series of upper level disturbances
will bring several days with improved thunderstorm chances.
Storms may get off to a slow start this afternoon, but chances
look to increase this evening and late tonight, especially near
and west of the Rio Grande.
- The threat of localized flash flooding will spread across the
area tonight into Friday, and may linger in Hudspeth County on
Saturday.
- High temperatures will drop to near normal for much of the
upcoming week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Moisture is well in place across the Borderland with a nice
moisture plume noticeable on WV extending well south into Mexico.
Currently the deepest moisture is over eastern AZ into western NM
but as upper trough associated with upper low over the Pacific NW
shifts eastward, so will the moisture plume. A series of
disturbances moving north out of Mexico will interact with the
moisture and bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
to the region. Through Thursday, best rain chances are west of
the RGV but as we get into Thu night and into Sat, the focus
shifts to the east. PW`s of 1.3-1.5" will make storms very
efficient with locally heavy rainfall possible and the wind flow
out of the south could lead to some training. Extended the Flood
Watch in the Gila to go through 12Z Thu and issued one for the
lowlands west of the RGV as well as the Sacs for 18Z Wed-12Z Thu.
Expect this will have to be pushed east later in the week. There
will be some increased wind shear as the trough approaches which
could lead to a few stronger/low end severe out west Wed/Thu.
Preferred NBM PoPs over MAV/MET PoPs further east in the next
couple of days with so much moisture around, it won`t take much to
trigger a storm.
As the upper trough pushes east during the day Sat, drier air
quickly moves in. EC is in line with the GFS as far as this
timing, so little to no rain chances as we head into Sunday/Mon.
Maybe another moisture surge after that, but still a lot of
inconsistency in models with regards to handling of next trough
over the southwest.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026
P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN120-150 through most of the period. A
little lesser cloud cover as you head southeast. There will be
showers and thunderstorms developing by mid afternoon and
continuing into the overnight hours. Best chances will be west of
a KELP-KALM line but all locations could see a storm. Heavy rain
will be the main impact with these storms and the strongest could
have 1-3SM +TSRA BKN030-050. Winds generally light but outflows
could gust over 30KTS and any that move out of Mexico could have
some blowing dust, mainly affecting KELP this evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026
No fire threats over the next week as plenty of moisture will be
around through the end of the week with RH`s staying above 25%
with most areas above 35%. There will be a daily chance for
showers and thunderstorms, initially having the best chances west
of the RGV but shifting east as we get into Thu and Fri. Winds
will not be a concern. Vent rates will be fair to good.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 69 92 69 91 / 70 30 40 10
Sierra Blanca 64 89 65 90 / 40 20 10 0
Las Cruces 65 89 65 88 / 70 30 70 10
Alamogordo 66 87 65 90 / 50 60 50 20
Cloudcroft 49 65 49 67 / 50 80 40 50
Truth or Consequences 65 85 66 84 / 70 50 80 30
Silver City 60 78 59 80 / 70 50 90 30
Deming 66 89 63 88 / 60 30 90 10
Lordsburg 66 84 64 84 / 40 60 60 10
West El Paso Metro 70 91 70 91 / 60 30 50 10
Dell City 67 92 67 92 / 50 30 20 10
Fort Hancock 71 93 69 95 / 50 20 20 10
Loma Linda 65 86 65 86 / 50 40 40 20
Fabens 69 92 69 92 / 70 30 40 10
Santa Teresa 67 89 67 89 / 60 20 60 10
White Sands HQ 70 91 69 90 / 60 40 60 10
Jornada Range 65 88 65 88 / 70 40 70 10
Hatch 66 89 66 88 / 80 30 80 10
Columbus 68 89 67 89 / 60 30 70 10
Orogrande 65 89 65 88 / 60 50 50 20
Mayhill 55 79 54 79 / 50 80 40 50
Mescalero 53 77 53 78 / 50 80 50 60
Timberon 53 77 52 76 / 50 70 50 40
Winston 56 76 56 76 / 70 70 80 70
Hillsboro 65 84 63 84 / 60 50 90 30
Spaceport 63 86 63 86 / 80 40 80 20
Lake Roberts 56 78 55 80 / 70 60 90 50
Hurley 61 80 60 82 / 60 50 90 20
Cliff 63 84 62 86 / 60 60 90 30
Mule Creek 61 80 60 82 / 60 60 90 50
Faywood 63 82 62 82 / 70 50 90 20
Animas 66 84 64 86 / 50 70 70 20
Hachita 64 84 63 85 / 60 60 80 10
Antelope Wells 64 86 64 87 / 60 70 60 30
Cloverdale 62 79 61 83 / 60 70 60 30
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for Central Grant
County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres
Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Upper
Gila River Valley.
Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Northern Dona Ana County-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500
Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla
Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest
Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-West Slopes
Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz