Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
747 FXUS64 KEPZ 080449 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1049 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026 - A drying trend over the weekend will reduce storm chances. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the high terrain, but most lowland areas will be dry. - Temperatures will continue to run above normal for early August, with triple-digit highs along the Rio Grande and Tularosa Basin through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026 It`s been an active week of thunderstorms across Southern New Mexico. Upper high fixed over the Colorado River promoted north flow, pushing storms off the mountains and down into the lowlands quickly. Sufficient moisture added to storm coverage and flood risk. However, it looks like that pattern will change this weekend, pumping the breaks on rain chances over the next several days. Upper high has made a slight eastward shift over the Four Corners past few days, and will linger there through at least next Tuesday. This will push the primary plume of monsoonal moisture further west again toward Arizona. Drier fetch of air moving up the Rio Grande at lower levels will also support a drying trend. Precipitable water values around 1.0" today will fall to 0.8-0.9" by Sunday. While this doesn`t seem like much, it will greatly reduce the chance for early afternoon initiation over the high terrain and subsequently eliminate outflow forcing during the late afternoon and evening hours. A few isolated (5-10% coverage) showers will still be possible on Saturday/Sunday, but coverage will be greatly reduced. No major changes to temperatures, with lowland highs in the upper 90s. Rain chances will be limited mostly to the Gila and Western NM Monday/Tuesday, with scattered (20-40% coverage) storms each afternoon. Storms will be capable of gusty winds and localized flooding. Elsewhere, continued dry conditions with temperatures warming back toward 100-104 degrees along the Rio Grande Valley and Tularosa Basin. Upper high moves east during the latter half of next week, finally beginning to look like a classic monsoon pattern. Rain chances will expand area wide again by next Wednesday. Precipitable water values 1.2-1.4" will pose a risk for flash flooding. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026 Lingering VCTS across SW NM next few hours, then SCT-BKN120 with surface winds 040-080 at 5-10KT overnight. Much lower TS risk for Saturday, with only isolated -TSRA between 20-00Z. No mention in TAFs due to low confidence. Prevailing conditions VMC with skies FEW-SCT100 and surface winds 100-130 at 08-12KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Aug 7 2026 Temperatures will remain hot through the period as an upper high remains near the Four Corners region with RH`s slowly falling. At the current time, it looks like even the lowlands min RHs will remain above 10%. This aftn/eve looks like the best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms before becoming focused mainly in the Gila region into the middle of next week. Winds through the period will remain under 15 mph except near thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 99 74 100 / 20 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 67 95 66 95 / 10 10 0 0 Las Cruces 69 97 69 97 / 30 0 0 0 Alamogordo 68 97 69 97 / 20 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 51 76 51 76 / 20 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 69 98 72 99 / 30 0 0 0 Silver City 63 92 65 93 / 30 10 0 20 Deming 69 97 69 99 / 40 0 0 0 Lordsburg 69 98 71 99 / 20 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 98 76 99 / 20 10 0 0 Dell City 71 98 70 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 75 102 74 102 / 20 10 0 0 Loma Linda 68 92 68 93 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 74 100 73 100 / 20 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 72 96 72 97 / 20 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 73 98 74 98 / 20 0 0 0 Jornada Range 69 98 70 98 / 30 0 0 0 Hatch 70 100 70 101 / 40 0 0 0 Columbus 73 98 73 99 / 30 0 0 0 Orogrande 69 96 68 97 / 20 10 0 0 Mayhill 57 86 57 88 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 56 87 56 87 / 30 10 0 0 Timberon 55 84 54 85 / 20 10 0 0 Winston 60 91 61 91 / 30 0 0 10 Hillsboro 66 96 68 98 / 30 0 0 0 Spaceport 67 98 69 98 / 40 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 58 92 59 92 / 30 10 0 40 Hurley 64 94 66 95 / 30 0 0 10 Cliff 65 99 67 99 / 20 20 10 20 Mule Creek 63 95 66 95 / 20 40 10 20 Faywood 66 94 68 94 / 30 0 0 0 Animas 69 99 70 99 / 30 0 0 0 Hachita 69 97 69 97 / 30 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 69 96 68 97 / 40 0 0 0 Cloverdale 65 93 65 93 / 30 10 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt