Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
578 FXUS64 KEPZ 192341 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 541 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 531 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - Moisture will start to diminish beginning tomorrow and through the weekend. This will lead to a decrease in storm coverage each day. - Even drier air pushes in Thursday and Friday with less and less storm coverage focusing over the area mountains. - Temperatures remaining near normal through the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1125 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Thunderstorm chances persist at least the next several days but today looks to be the last day with abundant moisture which will bring the best coverage for storms. This mornings sounding had a PW of 1.35" which is above the 90th percentile (well above average). In addition, a tall and skinny CAPE profile is evident with fairly weak winds through much of the low and mid levels which will aid in the flash flooding threat today. Wind gusts from outflows won`t be too much of a concern with gusts generally up to 45 mph directly near thunderstorms. Blowing dust may also accompany wind gusts. As high pressure stays over the Four Corners, this will entrain drier continental air which will slowly diminish thunderstorm chances with the decrease in moisture. PW values tomorrow should be around 1.1"-1.2" which is still above average. Localized flooding will still be a concern with storms tomorrow. By Thursday and onward, the best chances for precipitation will be the area mountains with very low to no chances in the desert lowlands. PWs will be near average Thursday, then below average Friday and onward. Decreasing moisture will greatly reduce the flood threat but the threat for gusty outflow winds will increase with gusts generally up to 50 mph. This stubborn high pressure stays over the Four Corners through the weekend which will continue to scour out moisture and will continue to dwindle precipitation chances with the best chances being over the area mountains. Highs stay near normal with lowland temperatures in the 90s with area mountains seeing temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Storms are moving away from KELP to begin the period, progressing to the SW. A few weaker cells have developed along an outflow boundary approaching KDMN. Late this evening, a cluster of storms is modeled to approach KTCS from the north with gusty winds, so a PROB30 has been added. Otherwise, dry conditions expected through the AM. Isolated storms possible tomorrow afternoon, but confidence is low in location and coverage of activity. Prevailing winds will be AOB 10kts mainly from E-SE. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1125 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Low fire concerns each day through the weekend as min RHs stay above critical thresholds each afternoon. Expect min RH values around 18-30% starting tomorrow and through the weekend. Pretty good overnight recoveries the next couple days. Tonight`s max RHs will be 60-80% across the lowlands and 85-100% in the mountains. Thursday morning max RHs will be the same as Wednesday for the mountains but the lowlands will see around 50-70%. Drier air filters in and storm chances dwindle Thursday and onward focusing over the area mountains with very little to no activity in the desert lowlands. Winds will stay fairly light each afternoon with 20 foot winds generally out of the southeast at 4-8mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 94 75 96 / 30 20 10 10 Sierra Blanca 64 88 64 89 / 20 40 10 20 Las Cruces 67 90 68 92 / 40 20 10 10 Alamogordo 67 89 67 92 / 10 30 10 10 Cloudcroft 49 67 49 70 / 20 60 10 20 Truth or Consequences 69 90 69 92 / 40 20 10 10 Silver City 63 86 63 88 / 50 40 20 30 Deming 70 94 69 96 / 40 20 10 10 Lordsburg 69 94 70 94 / 50 30 20 10 West El Paso Metro 72 91 73 93 / 40 20 10 10 Dell City 67 91 67 93 / 20 20 0 10 Fort Hancock 72 93 71 94 / 30 30 10 20 Loma Linda 66 85 65 87 / 30 20 0 10 Fabens 71 92 71 94 / 30 20 0 10 Santa Teresa 70 91 70 92 / 40 20 10 10 White Sands HQ 72 91 72 94 / 30 30 10 10 Jornada Range 68 90 68 92 / 30 30 10 10 Hatch 69 93 69 94 / 40 20 10 10 Columbus 71 94 72 94 / 40 10 10 0 Orogrande 68 88 67 91 / 20 20 10 10 Mayhill 55 78 54 81 / 20 60 10 30 Mescalero 54 78 53 81 / 20 50 10 20 Timberon 54 75 53 78 / 20 50 10 20 Winston 57 84 57 86 / 50 40 20 30 Hillsboro 63 90 64 92 / 50 30 20 20 Spaceport 67 90 67 92 / 40 20 10 10 Lake Roberts 57 86 57 89 / 50 50 30 50 Hurley 64 88 64 90 / 50 40 10 20 Cliff 66 93 65 95 / 50 40 20 30 Mule Creek 62 89 63 91 / 40 50 20 40 Faywood 65 87 65 89 / 50 40 10 20 Animas 69 94 68 95 / 50 30 20 10 Hachita 67 91 67 93 / 40 20 10 10 Antelope Wells 66 91 67 92 / 50 20 10 0 Cloverdale 65 87 65 89 / 60 30 20 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson