Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
447 FXUS64 KEPZ 131110 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 510 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 509 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026 - Above average temperatures will continue through the weekend, with today being the hottest of the period,with lowland highs in the upper 90s or even 100 degrees in a few spots. - There will be a slight chance for dry lightning in the Gila Wilderness on this afternoon, with possibly a light rain shower too. - Breezy and very dry conditions from Thursday onward, creating elevated fire weather, culminating Sunday as gusty winds develop and push fire conditions to near critical. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 946 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026 Upper level high pressure is slowly making it way across New Mexico tonight and into Wednesday. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week with high temperatures well above average. A few locations in the lowlands will hit the triple digit mark. El Paso will have a chance (20 to 30%) of hitting the triple digit make as well. Late in the day the upper level ridge will be moving off to the east and a short wave trough will move across New Mexico. This system may have just enough mid level moisture to get some thunderstorms going, but with the dry lower levels, it would most likely be dry thunderstorms. The best chances for dry thunderstorms will be in the Gila Wilderness. For Thursday, yet another upper level short wave trough will approach the region, but this system will also have a decent lee side surface trough in southeast Colorado. Both of those will give us a breezy to windy conditions with elevated fire weather conditions. High temperatures on Thursday will run 5 to 8 degrees above average. For Friday and Saturday, we will be dry with afternoon high temperatures continuing to run 5 to 8 degrees above average. Both afternoons will have breezy winds. For Sunday we will still be dry and our high temperatures will be running 3 to 5 degrees above average. Another upper level trough will approach the Four Corners region Sunday afternoon. The Sunday trough will be stronger than the other troughs, so we will see windy conditions Sunday afternoon and with the warm temperatures, blowing dust may also be a problem. For the start of next week, we will still be dry, with less winds and high temperatures running near seasonal averages. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 509 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026 VFR conditions expected through the period with SCT120 SCT-BKN250. Between 19Z-01Z...mainly west of the RG Valley...SCT-BKN090 with isolated BKN070 -SHRA. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots this morning, becoming south 10-15G25 knots this afternoon, then diminishing to west 5-8 knots this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 509 AM MDT Wed May 13 2026 Fire conditions will remain elevated through the end of the weekend as very dry air remains in place. A few light showers/thunderstorms are possible this afternoon west of the RG Valley, along with possible dry lightning. Otherwise little or no chance of rain through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Humidity will gradually lower after Thursday with min humidity mostly in the single digits by this weekend. Winds become breezy Thursday, certainly elevating fire conditions. ERCs are forecast to be past the 90th percentile this weekend across both mountain zones. Combined this with gusty winds Sunday as a Pacific frontal system moves through, and we could be looking at critical fire conditions Sunday. Min RH: Lowlands 10-15% today and Thursday, decreasing to 5-10% Friday through Sunday. Mountains 12-20% today and Thursday, decreasing to 8-15% Friday through Sunday. Vent rates very good- excellent through Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 63 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 62 92 58 92 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 58 92 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 49 72 48 71 / 10 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 64 92 60 91 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 55 84 53 83 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 61 93 58 93 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 59 89 55 90 / 10 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 69 93 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 59 94 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 68 97 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 63 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 66 96 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 63 93 61 93 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 74 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 92 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 56 94 55 95 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 66 94 63 94 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 58 91 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 54 86 55 86 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 52 84 51 83 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 50 80 50 80 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 48 84 47 84 / 20 0 0 0 Hillsboro 60 89 58 89 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 52 91 50 92 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 46 84 46 84 / 20 0 0 0 Hurley 54 86 51 86 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 46 89 48 90 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 42 84 44 85 / 10 0 0 0 Faywood 56 86 54 85 / 10 0 0 0 Animas 57 90 55 91 / 10 0 0 0 Hachita 59 90 56 90 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 58 90 56 90 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 58 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner