Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
798 FXUS64 KEPZ 032301 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 401 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 359 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026 - Mainly dry through the weekend with temperatures near or slightly below normal. - Breezy Wednesday afternoon, otherwise winds on the light side. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 948 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026 Lighter winds are forecast for today as the upper trough moves further east into the Midwest and sfc high pressure settles in. Other than a few high clouds, mainly clear skies and cool temps today (5-10 degrees below normal). A shortwave trough swings by to the north Wed PM, generating a modest pressure gradient and lee troughing to the east. W-SW winds of 10-15 mph are forecast with gusts to 25-30 in the afternoon. Higher gusts are expected in the Sacs, but remaining below advisory criteria. Any rain chances associated with the disturbance stay far to the north. Zonal flow for Thu behind the shortwave keeps us mainly clear with light winds returning. A baggy upper trough moves into the Desert SW late this week, bringing some moisture and cloud cover to the region Fri/Sat. Rain chances are limited as PWs climb to only 0.5-0.6". Some diffluent flow may try to form a few showers, but any impacts will be negligible through Sat with limited instability. This weak trough looks to become cut-off from the flow early next week off the Baja coast with most impacts over AZ in terms of rain chances. Confidence is low in any chance of rain for us through next Tue. As of now, increased cloud cover can be expected late in the period. If enough moisture reaches NM, western areas would be most likely to see rain. Temps remain near or just below average into next week with lowland highs in the mid 60s to low 70s most days. Other than breeziness on Wed, winds will be generally light. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 359 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026 VFR conditions will continue throughout the entire observation period. Outside of some high clouds, skies will be clear. Winds will be light and variable, slightly picking up speed near the end of the observation period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 948 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026 No fire weather concerns are forecast through the week. Recent rainfall has caused fuels to drop to near record lows for fire danger. Light winds for the rest of today and tonight before becoming breezy Wednesday afternoon from W-SW. Winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph are expected tomorrow afternoon and smoke dispersion to the east. Dry and calmer Thu into Fri, then a slight chance of rain showers into Sat. Minimal threat of lightning into the weekend. Temps will be near or slightly below normal. Min RHs range from 30-50%. Vent rates will be fair to good Wed, otherwise poor to fair. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 47 74 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 42 75 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 41 68 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 42 69 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 32 51 34 47 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 41 70 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 38 64 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 40 69 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 39 68 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 49 74 51 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 44 74 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 49 83 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 44 68 46 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 47 79 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 44 72 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 46 71 49 67 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 41 68 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 41 72 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 43 73 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 42 69 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 34 66 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 34 61 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 33 59 37 56 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 33 66 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 41 72 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 40 68 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 32 64 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 37 66 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 39 69 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 37 65 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 39 65 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 40 70 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 39 71 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 42 74 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 43 66 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...41-Zotter