Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
717 FXUS64 KEPZ 141721 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1121 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1047 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Available monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will lead to numerous thunderstorms in the mountains and scattered showers and thunderstorms in the lowlands through the week. -Impacts from storms include periods of heavy rainfall with localized flooding, hail, gusty winds, and localized blowing dust. - With the general summertime thunderstorm weather pattern, day time temperatures will remain near or slightly above seasonal averages. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 SHORT TERM... Today will be a repeat of yesterdays storm activity. The state is still experiencing the affects of an upper level high to our west, keeping atmospheric moisture trapped in our area. Cloud cover across the CWA this morning will help reduce instability and hinder some thunderstorm development across the Tularosa Basin and Lowlands. However, storm development is likely over the Sacramento, Black, and San Andreas Mountains. Areal flooding and flash flooding will be a concern in the northern Sacramento Mountains, mainly around the Salt, South Fork, and Seven Springs burn scars. CAPE and upper level shear are and will remain extremely weak throughout the day, meaning a lower chance for severe weather. Conditions for blowing dust will be present due to outflow boundaries from developing T- storms, mainly in Luna, Hidalgo, and Grant Counties. Temperatures will reach into the mid 90s with the El Paso metro seeing 95 degrees. Heading into tomorrow the high pressure will become more established over the Four Corners region. Any thunderstorm development will mainly be restricted to the mountains. Blowing dust will continue to be a threat for much of the western portions of the CWA. Temperatures will drop slightly but still remain in the 90s with the metro seeing a high of 93 degrees. Much of the Lowlands will see temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. LONG TERM... As the week progresses, the high pressure system will weaken as a weak easterly wave moves into the area. A developing Low pressure system just off the coast of Baja will begin to funnel moisture into NM. By Thursday afternoon a lower level disturbance over Southern NM will greatly increase the chance for thunderstorm development. Chances of severe weather is low to medium as CAPE and upper level sheer is expected to increase slightly. Heavy rain is expected across the CWA increasing the risk of flooding. As we reach the weekend the ridge will shift slightly to the east as a High Pressure system establishes itself over the Gulf Coast and the Low Pressure system moves into Southern California. Hidalgo, Grant, and Sierra counties will have a greater chance of experiencing heavy rainfall as moisture will be concentrated over the western area of our CWA. Rolling into Monday we will begin to see a high pressure system form over the state, pushing moisture out to our east as drier conditions begin to settle in. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 TSRA developing after 18Z, mainly over the mountains...scattered BKN- OVC050CB -TSRA. Thunderstorms beginning to develop over the lowlands after 21Z, especially associated with outflow from the mountain storms. Pea-size hail (with a few approaching one inch) along with wind gusts of 35-45 knots possible with some of these storms. Thunderstorms possible at all TAF sites starting late this afternoon, but confidence to include in forecast is low at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1047 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Main threat, as has been in the recent past, is heavy rain and flooding near the burn scars. Expect scattered to numerous mountain thunderstorms and scattered lowland storms this afternoon, becoming more focused over zones west of Deming Tuesday/Wednesday. Increasing mid-level southeast flow should push additional moisture into the zones Thursday and Friday, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms all zones. The chance for heavy rain/flooding will also likely increase for this period. Storm outflow will once again determine location of lowland storms this evening. These outflows will also cause strong, erratic wind shifts with wind gusts of 40-50 mph possible. Min RH: Lowlands 20-30% through Friday. Gila/Black Range 25-35% through Friday; Sacramento Mtns 35-50% through Friday. Vent rates fair-good through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 99 77 99 / 10 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 65 89 67 90 / 10 20 10 20 Las Cruces 69 95 70 95 / 30 10 20 20 Alamogordo 67 94 70 96 / 10 20 10 20 Cloudcroft 50 71 52 73 / 10 30 10 40 Truth or Consequences 69 95 70 96 / 20 30 20 30 Silver City 62 88 63 87 / 50 70 50 80 Deming 69 98 72 96 / 40 20 40 30 Lordsburg 68 94 68 91 / 50 60 70 70 West El Paso Metro 74 95 76 96 / 20 10 10 10 Dell City 68 94 70 96 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 73 96 74 98 / 10 10 10 20 Loma Linda 66 88 67 90 / 10 10 10 10 Fabens 72 96 74 97 / 10 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 72 94 74 96 / 20 10 20 10 White Sands HQ 73 96 74 98 / 20 20 10 10 Jornada Range 68 95 70 96 / 20 20 10 20 Hatch 69 98 71 98 / 30 20 30 20 Columbus 72 96 74 96 / 40 10 50 20 Orogrande 68 93 71 95 / 10 10 10 10 Mayhill 55 81 57 84 / 10 40 10 40 Mescalero 55 82 57 85 / 10 40 10 40 Timberon 53 78 55 81 / 10 30 10 30 Winston 57 87 58 88 / 30 60 30 60 Hillsboro 64 94 66 94 / 40 50 40 40 Spaceport 67 94 67 96 / 20 20 10 20 Lake Roberts 57 89 56 88 / 50 80 60 80 Hurley 63 91 65 88 / 40 60 50 60 Cliff 65 95 65 93 / 50 70 50 80 Mule Creek 62 91 63 89 / 50 70 50 80 Faywood 65 91 65 90 / 40 50 40 60 Animas 68 94 68 90 / 50 60 70 70 Hachita 67 94 68 91 / 50 40 70 50 Antelope Wells 67 91 68 88 / 50 50 80 70 Cloverdale 63 86 63 82 / 60 70 80 80 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen/Gonzalez