Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
324 FXUS64 KEPZ 211114 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX 514 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 513 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 - Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s, near daily records. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday, limited mostly to the high terrain and western New Mexico. Dry conditions spread area wide into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1147 PM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026 High pressure aloft centered over the Southern Rockies will be the primary driver of our weather pattern over the next several days. Thunderstorm development through the weekend will be driven by recycled moisture under this upper high, with less and less coverage each day as drier air moves in. The main headline will be above normal temperatures, which looks to stay in place through the rest of August. Lowland highs consistently in the 98-102 degree range will run 8-10 degrees above normal for late August and near daily records. Currently no daily record for El Paso in the forecast, but were only 1-2 degrees off most days going forward. Earlier this evening we saw isolated showers and thunderstorms across the CWA. Sounding PWs were 1.1-1.2, with barely enough instability (300-600 J/kg), and a mix of convective temperature/terrain forcing. Storms were quite weak, with 10-20% coverage over the lowlands and more notable winners being the western rim of the Sacramento Mountain and Black Range. For Friday, expect more of this weak convective activity, only another tick lower in coverage. GFS/NAM resolve PWs falling below an inch. ECMWF still clings onto some slightly higher moisture values, but pattern recognition leans this forecast toward the drier solutions. Lowland chances fall even further to 5-10%, especially for the I-10 corridor. Any storms that do form will favor the high elevations, popping around noon and diminishing prior to sunset. Storms will be capable of brief downpours and gusty winds up to 45 mph. Saturday will be even drier, with very spotty mountain showers and almost no action for lowland zones. Upper high drifts east directly over the Southern High Plains this weekend, leading to a near-total shut off of moisture flow and the end of storm chances area wide. Precipitable water values 0.8-1.0 will fall below the climate normals and strong subsident flow within the 400-600mb layer aloft will hinder updraft development. The primary monsoonal plume will be pushed west across Arizona and the Colorado River valley. This pattern looks to remain in place through next week, leading to an extended period of late-August dryness and heat. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Isolated TS develop across northern areas this afternoon, including near KTCS (about 20% chance). The other terminals should remain dry today with outflow gusts to 30kts possible. Any convection should dissipate after 0z. Occasional gusts develop in the afternoon to mid-upper teens from E-SE. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 514 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Fire weather concerns remain low through early next week. Moisture levels remain near normal across central NM today, keeping rain/storm chances alive for northern areas this afternoon. Area mtns remain favored for storms with gusty outflow winds to 40 mph and brief downpours being the main threats. Prevailing winds will be light from the E-SE outside of outflows. Storm chances continue to diminish, including for area mtns, after today as dry air filters in from the east and the upper high drifts over the Southern High Plains. Mainly dry conditions are expected into next week with very warm temps. ERCs are forecast to climb next week towards the 75th %-ile. Min RHs range from 12-20% for the lowlands through Sat, then 10-15%; 20-35% for mtns through Sat, then 15-25%. Vent rates will be good to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 67 97 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 69 100 70 99 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 98 70 99 / 0 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 53 76 53 76 / 0 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 71 98 71 98 / 10 0 10 0 Silver City 65 92 64 93 / 10 10 10 0 Deming 71 101 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 72 100 72 100 / 0 0 10 0 West El Paso Metro 77 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 70 100 70 100 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 104 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 69 94 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 74 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 73 99 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 101 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 71 99 71 99 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 71 102 71 102 / 10 0 10 0 Columbus 75 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 69 98 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 58 88 58 89 / 0 10 0 0 Mescalero 57 87 57 88 / 0 10 0 10 Timberon 56 85 55 85 / 0 10 0 0 Winston 62 90 62 90 / 10 10 10 10 Hillsboro 69 97 69 97 / 10 0 10 0 Spaceport 69 99 69 99 / 10 0 10 0 Lake Roberts 59 91 59 91 / 10 30 10 10 Hurley 67 95 66 95 / 0 0 10 0 Cliff 67 100 68 100 / 10 10 20 0 Mule Creek 66 96 66 96 / 10 10 20 0 Faywood 69 95 68 95 / 10 0 10 0 Animas 71 100 71 100 / 0 0 10 0 Hachita 70 98 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 70 99 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 68 95 67 94 / 0 0 10 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson