Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
231
FNUS54 KEPZ 161119
FWFEPZ
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for New Mexico and Far West Texas
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
519 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026
.DISCUSSION...
Low fire danger due to ongoing wetness and additional rain in the
forecast. SE winds this afternoon, 5 to 10 mph leading to a few
hours of Fair ventilation. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
expected again this evening and through much of the overnight
hours. Localized flash flooding is the main threat, especially
over burn scars, mountain canyons, and other flood- sensitive
locations. Rain chances will continue in abundance through the
rest of the week, with flash flooding possible. This weekend shows
a downtrend in storm coverage, with Sunday being the driest day
of the forecast. Above normal precipitation looks to resume again
next week, allowing ERCs to plummet and keeping fire danger very
low.
&&
...Percentages shown in the sky/weather portion reflect
sky cover amount...
...Mean elevations used to obtain mixing heights as follows:
Zone 110 - Reserve (5900 ft)
Zone 111 - Deming (4300 ft)
Zone 112 - Las Cruces(3900 ft)
Zone 113 - Ruidoso (6900 ft)
Ventilation categories are determined by criteria established
by the state of New Mexico.
NMZ110-161815-
Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ-
519 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026
.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 1100,
then partly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight
chance of thunderstorms until 1100. Chance of
rain showers. Chance of thunderstorms after
1100.
* Max temperature.....
* Above 7500 ft....65-70.
* Below 7500 ft....75-80.
* 24 hr trend......3 degrees cooler.
* Min humidity........
* Above 7500 ft....63-68 percent.
* Below 7500 ft....52-57 percent.
* 24 hr trend......12 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 16 mph.
* Chance of thunder...50 percent.
* Chc of precip.......70 percent.
* Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL increasing to 5700 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southeast around 15 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (63800 knot-ft).
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers
likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
evening, then chance of rain showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms after
midnight.
* Min temperature.....
* Above 7500 ft....51-55.
* Below 7500 ft....57-62.
* 24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Max humidity........
* Above 7500 ft....91-96 percent.
* Below 7500 ft....87-92 percent.
* 24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 23 mph.
* Chance of thunder...50 percent.
* Chc of precip.......80 percent.
.THURSDAY...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Slight chance
of rain showers through the day. Slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max temperature.....
* Above 7500 ft....68-73.
* Below 7500 ft....77-82.
* Min humidity........
* Above 7500 ft....49-54 percent.
* Below 7500 ft....43-48 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......South winds around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 22 mph.
* Chance of thunder...20 percent.
* Chc of precip.......60 percent.
* Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL increasing to 7000 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....South around 15 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (84900 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 55 to 60. Highs 75 to 80. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 53 to 58. Highs 75 to 80. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 51 to 56. Highs 75 to 80. West winds
around 5 mph.
$$
NMZ111-161815-
Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
519 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026
.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms.
* Max temperature.....83-88.
* 24 hr trend......2 degrees cooler.
* Min humidity........39-44 percent.
* 24 hr trend......3 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 17 mph.
* Chance of thunder...20 percent.
* Chc of precip.......60 percent.
* Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL increasing to 7800 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southeast around 15 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (88000 knot-ft).
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Rain showers
likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
evening, then slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms after midnight.
* Min temperature.....61-65.
* 24 hr trend......1 degree cooler.
* Max humidity........86-91 percent.
* 24 hr trend......1 percent drier.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 26 mph.
* Chance of thunder...50 percent.
* Chc of precip.......60 percent.
.THURSDAY...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
* Max temperature.....84-89.
* Min humidity........35-40 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 16 mph.
* Chance of thunder...0 percent.
* Chc of precip.......30 percent.
* Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL increasing to 7900 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (68900 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower to mid 60s. Highs 85 to 90. East
winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower to mid 60s. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
South winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower to mid 60s. Highs 85 to 90. West
winds around 5 mph.
$$
NMZ112-161815-
South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
519 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026
.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance
of thunderstorms until 1100. Chance of rain
showers. Chance of thunderstorms after 1100.
* Max temperature.....85-90.
* 24 hr trend......2 degrees cooler.
* Min humidity........36-41 percent.
* 24 hr trend......5 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
south in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 14 mph.
* Chance of thunder...50 percent.
* Chc of precip.......60 percent.
* Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL increasing to 7700 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (75000 knot-ft).
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms through the night.
* Min temperature.....62-66.
* 24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Max humidity........74-79 percent.
* 24 hr trend......9 percent drier.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
northeast after midnight.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 23 mph.
* Chance of thunder...50 percent.
* Chc of precip.......40 percent.
.THURSDAY...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
* Max temperature.....86-91.
* Min humidity........31-36 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......East winds around 10 mph shifting to the
south in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 21 mph.
* Chance of thunder...0 percent.
* Chc of precip.......30 percent.
* Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL increasing to 8200 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southeast around 15 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (92800 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the 60s. Highs 85 to 90. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower to mid 60s. Highs 83 to 88.
South winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
near 60. Highs 83 to 88. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
$$
NMZ113-161815-
Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ-
519 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026
.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance
of thunderstorms until 1100. Chance of rain
showers. Chance of thunderstorms after 1100.
* Max temperature.....
* Above 7500 ft....68-73.
* Below 7500 ft....76-81.
* 24 hr trend......5 degrees cooler.
* Min humidity........
* Above 7500 ft....62-67 percent.
* Below 7500 ft....48-53 percent.
* 24 hr trend......14 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 13 mph.
* Chance of thunder...50 percent.
* Chc of precip.......70 percent.
* Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL increasing to 5600 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....South around 10 knots.
* Vent category.......Fair (51300 knot-ft).
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening,
then slight chance of rain showers after
midnight.
* Min temperature.....
* Above 7500 ft....48-53.
* Below 7500 ft....56-61.
* 24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Max humidity........
* Above 7500 ft....89-94 percent.
* Below 7500 ft....81-86 percent.
* 24 hr trend......15 percent drier.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 23 mph.
* Chance of thunder...50 percent.
* Chc of precip.......50 percent.
.THURSDAY...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max temperature.....
* Above 7500 ft....69-74.
* Below 7500 ft....78-83.
* Min humidity........
* Above 7500 ft....53-58 percent.
* Below 7500 ft....41-46 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 20 mph.
* Chance of thunder...30 percent.
* Chc of precip.......20 percent.
* Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL increasing to 6500 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....South around 15 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (72300 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy with showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms. Lows 55 to 60. Highs 76 to 81. Southwest winds
around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
54 to 59. Highs 76 to 81. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
52 to 57. Highs 75 to 80. West winds around 5 mph.
$$
TXZ055-161815-
Texas Fire Weather Zone 055
El Paso County-
519 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026
.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent) until 1100,
then mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of
showers until 1100Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms after 1100.
* Max temperature.....89-93.
* 24 hr trend......2 degrees cooler.
* Min humidity........31-35 percent.
* 24 hr trend......3 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 13 mph.
* Chance of thunder...20 percent.
* Chc of precip.......50 percent.
* Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL increasing to 8800 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southeast around 15 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (95100 knot-ft).
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms.
* Min temperature.....Around 70.
* 24 hr trend......1 degree warmer.
* Max humidity........62-67 percent.
* 24 hr trend......19 percent drier.
* 20-foot winds.......East winds around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 22 mph.
* Chance of thunder...20 percent.
* Chc of precip.......20 percent.
.THURSDAY...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
* Max temperature.....90-94.
* Min humidity........27-31 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 18 mph.
* Chance of thunder...0 percent.
* Chc of precip.......20 percent.
* Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL increasing to 8800 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southeast around 15 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (98500 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows near 70. Highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid to upper 60s. Highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. South winds 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the mid 80s to lower
90s. West winds 5 mph.
$$
TXZ056-161815-
Texas Fire Weather Zone 056
Hudspeth County-
519 AM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026
.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of
showers until 1100Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms after 1100.
* Max temperature.....88-93.
* 24 hr trend......1 degree cooler.
* Min humidity........32-37 percent.
* 24 hr trend......7 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 10 mph.
* Chance of thunder...20 percent.
* Chc of precip.......40 percent.
* Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL increasing to 8300 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southeast around 15 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (89300 knot-ft).
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
* Min temperature.....64-69.
* 24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Max humidity........67-72 percent.
* 24 hr trend......21 percent drier.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 20 mph.
* Chance of thunder...0 percent.
* Chc of precip.......20 percent.
.THURSDAY...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
* Max temperature.....88-93.
* Min humidity........26-31 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 15 mph.
* Chance of thunder...0 percent.
* Chc of precip.......0 percent.
* Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL increasing to 8400 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southeast around 15 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (75800 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 64 to 69. Highs 89 to 94. Southeast winds
around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs 86 to 91. South winds
around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower to mid 60s. Highs 85 to 90. West winds 5 mph.
$$
Dennhardt