Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
683
FNUS54 KEPZ 141150
FWFEPZ
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for New Mexico and Far West Texas
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
550 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025
.DISCUSSION...
Main threat today is heavy rain/flooding near the burn scars. Expect
scattered mountain thunderstorms and isolated lowland storms this
afternoon, with storm outflow once again determining the location
of lowland storms this evening. These outflows will also cause strong,
erratic wind shifts with wind gusts of 40-50 mph possible. Storms
will become more focused over zones west of Deming Tuesday/Wednesday
as the deeper moisture shifts to that area.
Expect a ramp up in thunderstorm coverage Thursday and Friday
as increasing mid-level southeast flow develops, drawing in additional
moisture into the zones. This should result in scattered thunderstorms
all zones. The chance for heavy rain/flooding will also likely increase
for this period. Storm outflow will once again determine location of
lowland storms this evening. These outflows will also cause strong,
erratic wind shifts with wind gusts of 40-50 mph possible.
&&
...Percentages shown in the sky/weather portion reflect
sky cover amount...
...Mean elevations used to obtain mixing heights as follows:
Zone 110 - Reserve (5900 ft)
Zone 111 - Deming (4300 ft)
Zone 112 - Las Cruces(3900 ft)
Zone 113 - Ruidoso (6900 ft)
Ventilation categories are determined by criteria established
by the state of New Mexico.
NMZ110-141915-
Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ-
550 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025
.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) until 1200, then
partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Areas of smoke
until 1200. Rain showers and thunderstorms
likely after 1200.
* Max temperature.....
* Above 7500 ft....80-85.
* Below 7500 ft....87-92.
* 24 hr trend......5 degrees cooler.
* Min humidity........
* Above 7500 ft....26-31 percent.
* Below 7500 ft....24-29 percent.
* 24 hr trend......10 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......South winds around 5 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southwest 9 mph.
* Chance of thunder...70 percent.
* Chc of precip.......70 percent.
* Mixing height.......8400 ft AGL increasing to 11100 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (74600 knot-ft).
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
* Min temperature.....
* Above 7500 ft....53-58.
* Below 7500 ft....59-64.
* 24 hr trend......1 degree warmer.
* Max humidity........
* Above 7500 ft....66-71 percent.
* Below 7500 ft....65-70 percent.
* 24 hr trend......1 percent drier.
* 20-foot winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southwest 10 mph.
* Chance of thunder...40 percent.
* Chc of precip.......50 percent.
.TUESDAY...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Rain showers
with thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
* Max temperature.....
* Above 7500 ft....78-83.
* Below 7500 ft....85-90.
* Min humidity........
* Above 7500 ft....23-28 percent.
* Below 7500 ft....21-26 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..West 8 mph.
* Chance of thunder...70 percent.
* Chc of precip.......70 percent.
* Mixing height.......8400 ft AGL increasing to 10500 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....West around 10 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (89100 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Lows
58 to 63. Highs 83 to 88. West winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows 57 to
62. Highs 81 to 86. West winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Lows
57 to 62. Highs 81 to 86. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
$$
NMZ111-141915-
Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
550 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025
.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms after 1500.
* Max temperature.....91-96.
* 24 hr trend......4 degrees cooler.
* Min humidity........21-25 percent.
* 24 hr trend......8 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..East 8 mph.
* Chance of thunder...50 percent.
* Chc of precip.......60 percent.
* Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL increasing to 10800 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....East around 10 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (60800 knot-ft).
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening,
then slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms after midnight.
* Min temperature.....65-69.
* 24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Max humidity........64-69 percent.
* 24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
west after midnight.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southeast 8 mph.
* Chance of thunder...50 percent.
* Chc of precip.......50 percent.
.TUESDAY...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Rain showers
likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
* Max temperature.....92-97.
* Min humidity........19-24 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Northwest 5 mph.
* Chance of thunder...50 percent.
* Chc of precip.......50 percent.
* Mixing height.......6400 ft AGL increasing to 12500 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....West around 10 knots.
* Vent category.......Very good (110800 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Highs 89 to 94.
West winds around 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows
65 to 70. Highs 89 to 94. West winds around 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Highs 90 to 95.
South winds around 5 mph.
$$
NMZ112-141915-
South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
550 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025
.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms after 1500.
* Max temperature.....88-93.
* 24 hr trend......3 degrees cooler.
* Min humidity........24-29 percent.
* 24 hr trend......5 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southeast 8 mph.
* Chance of thunder...40 percent.
* Chc of precip.......40 percent.
* Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL increasing to 10500 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (73800 knot-ft).
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
* Min temperature.....66-70.
* 24 hr trend......1 degree warmer.
* Max humidity........62-67 percent.
* 24 hr trend......4 percent drier.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 8 mph.
* Chance of thunder...20 percent.
* Chc of precip.......20 percent.
.TUESDAY...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
* Max temperature.....91-96.
* Min humidity........19-24 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......South winds around 5 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southwest 7 mph.
* Chance of thunder...10 percent.
* Chc of precip.......20 percent.
* Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL increasing to 12200 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....South around 10 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (89700 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows near 70. Highs 93 to 98. Southwest winds
around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows near 70. Highs 91 to 96. South winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows
near 70. Highs 90 to 95. Southeast winds around 5 mph.
$$
NMZ113-141915-
Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ-
550 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025
.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms after 1200.
* Max temperature.....
* Above 7500 ft....69-74.
* Below 7500 ft....79-84.
* 24 hr trend......3 degrees cooler.
* Min humidity........
* Above 7500 ft....47-52 percent.
* Below 7500 ft....35-40 percent.
* 24 hr trend......4 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
southeast in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southeast 10 mph.
* Chance of thunder...50 percent.
* Chc of precip.......60 percent.
* Mixing height.......6800-8500 ft AGL.
* Transport winds.....South around 10 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (60500 knot-ft).
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
* Min temperature.....
* Above 7500 ft....48-53.
* Below 7500 ft....54-59.
* 24 hr trend......1 degree warmer.
* Max humidity........
* Above 7500 ft....85-90 percent.
* Below 7500 ft....75-80 percent.
* 24 hr trend......9 percent drier.
* 20-foot winds.......South winds around 5 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 10 mph.
* Chance of thunder...0 percent.
* Chc of precip.......10 percent.
.TUESDAY...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max temperature.....
* Above 7500 ft....72-77.
* Below 7500 ft....83-88.
* Min humidity........
* Above 7500 ft....39-44 percent.
* Below 7500 ft....28-33 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..West 8 mph.
* Chance of thunder...30 percent.
* Chc of precip.......30 percent.
* Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL increasing to 10900 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....West around 10 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (80200 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 58 to 63. Highs 83 to 88. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Lows 58 to 63. Highs 80 to 85. South winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows
57 to 62. Highs 78 to 83. South winds around 5 mph.
$$
TXZ055-141915-
Texas Fire Weather Zone 055
El Paso County-
550 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025
.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms after 1500.
* Max temperature.....90-94.
* 24 hr trend......3 degrees cooler.
* Min humidity........25-27 percent.
* 24 hr trend......4 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..East 8 mph.
* Chance of thunder...20 percent.
* Chc of precip.......30 percent.
* Mixing height.......6100 ft AGL increasing to 10900 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (76600 knot-ft).
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
* Min temperature.....71-73.
* 24 hr trend......2 degrees warmer.
* Max humidity........60-65 percent.
* 24 hr trend......3 percent drier.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southeast 7 mph.
* Chance of thunder...10 percent.
* Chc of precip.......20 percent.
.TUESDAY...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
* Max temperature.....92-96.
* Min humidity........21-23 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......South winds around 5 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southeast 6 mph.
* Chance of thunder...0 percent.
* Chc of precip.......10 percent.
* Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL increasing to 12000 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 knots.
* Vent category.......Fair (54600 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower to mid 70s. Highs in the mid to
upper 90s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Highs in the lower to mid
90s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 70s. Highs in the lower to mid 90s. Southeast
winds around 5 mph.
$$
TXZ056-141915-
Texas Fire Weather Zone 056
Hudspeth County-
550 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025
.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms after 1200.
* Max temperature.....86-91.
* 24 hr trend......2 degrees cooler.
* Min humidity........28-33 percent.
* 24 hr trend......2 percent drier.
* 20-foot winds.......East winds around 5 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..East 7 mph.
* Chance of thunder...20 percent.
* Chc of precip.......20 percent.
* Mixing height.......6400 ft AGL increasing to 10200 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....East around 10 knots.
* Vent category.......Good (93000 knot-ft).
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent).
* Min temperature.....65-70.
* 24 hr trend......1 degree warmer.
* Max humidity........77-82 percent.
* 24 hr trend......1 percent drier.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..East 9 mph.
* Chance of thunder...0 percent.
* Chc of precip.......10 percent.
.TUESDAY...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
* Max temperature.....88-93.
* Min humidity........25-30 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......South winds around 5 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..East 10 mph.
* Chance of thunder...10 percent.
* Chc of precip.......10 percent.
* Mixing height.......6400 ft AGL increasing to 11400 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southwest around 5 knots.
* Vent category.......Fair (51600 knot-ft).
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows near 70. Highs 90 to 95. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows near 70. Highs 88 to 93. Southwest winds
around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of
thunderstorms. Lows near 70. Highs 87 to 92. Southeast winds
around 5 mph.
$$
DH