541
FNUS74 KEPZ 231041
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Sunset...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
441 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on August 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Abnormally warm conditions will continue with highs running about
10 degrees above normal with min RH values in the upper teens.
Skies will start off clear this morning becoming partly to mostly
cloudy with cumulus build- ups by this afternoon. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms will be possible with about a 20% chance storms
will move across the site. Winds will be light, starting off from
the west becoming southerly this afternoon, before returning from
the west overnight. The exception will be any thunderstorm
outflows. Smoke transport will be west to east, becoming south to
north with good venting.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent) then becoming partly sunny
                    (60-70 percent). Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 6 mph shifting to the
                    south around 7 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9700 ft AGL increasing to 12400 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 10 mph shifting to the south 8 to 9
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (99400 knot-ft) .

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........13     13     4      20     20     66
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      10     10     20
Temp............66     72     77     81     82     82
RH..............33     28     22     18     20     20
20 ft wind......W 6    W 6    SW 6   S 7    S 7    S 7
20 ft wind gust.13     13     12     14     14     15
Mix hgt (ft)....500    4400   9700   12000  12400  11100
Transport wind..W 9    W 10   S 8    S 9    S 9    SW 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4      31     68     96     99     89
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 68.
Max humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 8 mph shifting to the west
                    around 9 mph overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 12 mph shifting to the west 12
                    to 13 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (50200 knot-ft) .

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........59     59     18     44     44     10
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30     30     0      0      0      0
Temp............80     75     72     70     70     69
RH..............21     27     28     30     30     30
20 ft wind......SW 7   SW 7   SW 8   W 9    W 9    NW 9
20 ft wind gust.13     13     14     15     15     16
Mix hgt (ft)....7200   600    600    600    500    500
Transport wind..SW 8   S 8    SW 10  W 12   W 13   NW 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..50     4      6      6      6      6
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the east
                    around 5 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......10000 ft AGL increasing to 13300 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph shifting to the north 6
                    to 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (80100 knot-ft) .

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........8         0         26        67
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      S CHC
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         10        20
Temp............68        74        82        84
RH..............31        25        18        19
20 FT wind......NW 8G16   NW 5G10   N 5G12    E 5G12
Mix hgt (ft)....500       4300      12900     13300
Transport wind..W 12      W 8       N 7       N 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5         30        77        80
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      GOOD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 60s. Highs in the lower 80s. West winds around 6 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the lower 80s. West
winds around 6 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the lower 60s. Highs around 80. Southwest winds around 6 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...Sean Donaldson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2620239.1/EPZ
.DELDT 08/23/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL sean.donaldson@usda.gov