558
FNUS74 KEPZ 221634
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Arrastra Prescribed Fire...USWFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1034 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 MDT on September 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Abundant moisture was moving into the region and this will lead to
a prolonged period of rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall
amounts over the next 48 hours will range from 0.5 to 2.5 inches
of rain. Flash flooding will be the main threat over the next two
days. Humidity will be high with near 100% RH recoveries at night
and high min RH`s during the day. Winds away from thunderstorms
will be light. Ventilation rates will be poor the next couple of
days.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Numerous showers
                    and isolated thunderstorms late in the morning,
                    then showers and scattered thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (20700 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........93     93     77     77
Weather cov.....NUMRUS DEFNTE NUMRUS NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).70     80     60     60
Temp............60     63     64     63
RH..............100    93     87     90
20 ft wind......SE 8   SE 7   SE 7   SE 7
20 ft wind gust.17     16     16     16
Mix hgt (ft)....2000   2500   2500   2100
Transport wind..SE 14  SE 13  SE 13  SE 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..24     28     28     21
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Scattered rain
                    showers through the night.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 13 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 9 to 10 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4700 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........74     74     85     87     87     82
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).50     50     50     30     30     20
Temp............63     60     58     57     56     55
RH..............90     96     96     100    100    100
20 ft wind......SE 7   SE 7   E 7    E 7    E 7    E 6
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     13     13     12
Mix hgt (ft)....1800   1000   600    800    600    500
Transport wind..SE 13  SE 12  SE 10  S 12   S 10   NW 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..20     10     6      8      5      5
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers through the day. Scattered
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (50000 knot-ft) .

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........73        64        54        50
Weather cov.....SCTTRD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      SCTTRD    SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).30        30        50        50
Temp............55        59        67        71
RH..............100       100       78        66
20 FT wind......E 7G13    SE 8G17   SE 8G18   SE 9G20
Mix hgt (ft)....600       1400      4100      4500
Transport wind..SE 10     SE 10     SE 12     S 13
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5         12        41        50
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      FAIR      FAIR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. Southeast winds around 8 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. East
winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...BRICE
Requested by...Jon Selby
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622329.0/EPZ
.DELDT 09/22/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mmunoz@blm.gov,gromero@blm.gov,jselby@blm.gov