Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
212
FNUS74 KEPZ 240026
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Antone Fire...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
626 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MDT on June 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm impacts likely beginning at 1PM tomorrow. Gusty
outflow winds leading to unpredictable fire behavior. Minor
flooding along canyons and drainages possible as well. Rain will
modify fuel moisture and slow natural fire spread. Chances only
increase Tuesday/Wednesday afternoons. Otherwise, generally light
northwest flow overnight and early morning with good RH
recoveries.
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 5.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 7 mph shifting to the west around
9 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (60500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
Sky (%).........44 24 24 55 66 66
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 60 70 70
LAL.............1 1 1 5 5 5
Temp............59 67 74 76 73 72
RH..............72 56 43 42 46 48
20 ft wind......S 2 SW 2 SW 2 NW 2 NW 2 NW 2
20 ft wind gust.3 3 3 6 5 5
Mix hgt (ft)....1800 1800 7600 7600 5900 5900
Transport wind..S 7 S 7 W 9 W 9 NW 9 NW 9
Haines index....2 2 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11 11 61 61 41 41
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD FAIR FAIR
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 3 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 11 mph shifting to the north 7 to 8
mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........52 52 47 28 28 22
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 20 0 0 0
LAL.............4 4 4 1 1 1
Temp............69 64 62 61 59 60
RH..............53 60 67 70 75 69
20 ft wind......NW 2 NW 2 NW 2 NW 2 NW 2 NW 2
20 ft wind gust.5 5 5 3 3 3
Mix hgt (ft)....3500 3500 200 200 100 100
Transport wind..W 11 W 11 N 7 N 7 N 8 N 8
Haines index....3 2 2 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..32 32 1 1 1 1
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Scattered
thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Numerous
rain showers in the afternoon. Numerous
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4 until 1500, then 5.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (44400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........19 20 42 68
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NUMRUS NUMRUS
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE SCTTRD NUMRUS
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 60 60
LAL.............1 1 5 5
Temp............57 68 76 80
RH..............75 59 43 38
20 FT wind......NW 2G7 NW 2G8 NW 2G8 NW 2G7
Mix hgt (ft)....1300 1300 7800 7300
Transport wind..N 9 N 9 N 8 N 7
Haines index....3 2 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13 13 44 35
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR FAIR POOR
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows around 60.
Highs in the lower 80s. Light winds.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Light winds.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Light winds.
$$
Forecaster...DENNHARDT
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416319.7/EPZ
.DELDT 06/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov