129
FNUS74 KEPZ 151114
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Blue...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
414 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0916 MST on November 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions with increasing winds shifting southwesterly in
the afternoon. Gusts are expected to stay under 25 mph. MinRH will
fall into the lower to mid 30 percent range. An incoming storm
system on Sunday will bring strengthening winds, increased
moisture, and a chance for precipitation. Gusts to 35 mph can be
expected in the afternoon. Wetting rainfall is unlikely. After a
transition day on Monday, another system will make its way towards
western NM, bringing better chances for wetting rainfall.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent) then becoming partly sunny
                    (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (18100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (64000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........3   3   3   18  18  18  61  61  61
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............46  49  51  51  52  51  50  47  45
RH..............40  37  33  36  33  34  34  38  41
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   8   8   8   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  18  18  18  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.16  21  21  21  21  18  18  18  18
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18  64  64  64  64  56  56  56  56
Ventrate Cat....PR  GD  GD  GD  GD  FR  FR  FR  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 11 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).

TIME (MST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........27     27     14     16     16     47
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      10
Temp............42     39     39     39     38     38
RH..............48     52     57     62     73     73
20 ft wind......SW 6   SW 6   SW 6   SW 7   SW 7   SW 7
20 ft wind gust.14     14     13     14     14     15
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..SW 11  SW 11  SW 12  SW 12  SW 14  SW 14
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0      0      0      0      0      0
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the late morning and afternoon.
                    Slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 42.
Min humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 32 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 24 mph increasing to around 29
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (16900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (55300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........57     57     68     75     75     68
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     30     30     30     30
Temp............38     38     40     40     39     37
RH..............79     82     79     82     89     96
20 ft wind......SW 10  SW 10  SW 14  SW 16  SW 16  SW 15
20 ft wind gust.25     25     30     32     32     31
Mix hgt (ft)....900    900    2100   2100   2200   2200
Transport wind..SW 18  SW 18  SW 24  SW 24  SW 29  SW 29
Vrate kt-ft/1K..17     17     49     49     55     55
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the lower 40s.
West winds around 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms and snow showers.
Lows around 30. Highs in the upper 30s. Southwest winds around
7 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Snow showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows
around 30. Highs in the lower 30s. South winds around 8 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BREITREITER
Requested by...Hedgeman
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2525590.4/EPZ
.DELDT 11/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov