Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
639
FNUS74 KEPZ 140918
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Turkey Feather...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
318 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0400 MDT on July 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
We will continue to have enough moisture across the region to help
fuel afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The main threat from the
storms will be gusty and erratic outflow winds and heavy rain
which could lead to flash flooding. Can`t rule out a few new fire
starts from lightning. Despite the moisture and rain chances, min
RH`s will continue to range from 20 to 30% each afternoon for the
next couple of days. Away from thunderstorms winds will be
generally light through the end of the week.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Areas of smoke
in the morning. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms late in the morning. Rain showers
and thunderstorms likely early in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in
the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the late morning and
afternoon.
Mixing height.......10000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the northeast
around 8 mph in the late morning and early
afternoon, then shifting to the south around 10
mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9400 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (76900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........40 40 17 70 70 79
Weather cov.....AREAS AREAS AREAS LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE
Weather type....SMOKE SMOKE SMOKE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE S CHC LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 20 70 70 80
Temp............56 62 69 74 77 78
RH..............64 54 40 30 26 29
20 ft wind......NW 2 NW 2 W 3 SW 5 SW 5 S 7
20 ft wind gust.8 8 10 14 14 14
Mix hgt (ft)....1900 1900 10000 10000 7300 7300
Transport wind..W 6 W 6 NE 8 NE 8 S 10 S 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9 9 77 77 68 68
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD GOOD GOOD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Areas of smoke
early in the evening. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms early in the evening, then slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the
evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 9 mph shifting to the south
around 7 mph in the late evening and overnight,
then shifting to the southwest overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (700 knot-ft).
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........65 49 40 26
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).40 20 10 10
Temp............76 65 61 58
RH..............33 52 53 60
20 FT wind......S 5G15 E 2G9 SE 2G9 SW 3G9
Mix hgt (ft)....4000 4000 100 100
Transport wind..SW 9 SW 9 S 7 SW 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..36 36 1 1
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
with thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in
the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the north 7 to 9
mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9200 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (66000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........22 16 42 76
Weather cov.....NONE NONE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE LIKELY LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 80 80
Temp............56 67 75 79
RH..............64 47 29 26
20 FT wind......W 4G10 W 5G14 W 7G16 SW 8G16
Mix hgt (ft)....1800 1800 9100 8300
Transport wind..W 6 W 6 N 7 N 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9 9 66 63
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s.
Highs in the upper 70s. West winds around 6 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s.
Highs in the mid 70s. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s.
Highs in the mid 70s. Light winds.
$$
Forecaster...BRICE
Requested by...Selway WFM
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517945.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jacob.sohr@usda.gov,aaron.l.jones@usda.gov,dan.fairchild@usda.gov