547
FNUS74 KEPZ 211610
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Crooked Piles RX...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1010 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 MDT on September 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
One last quiet and mostly dry day today before a very wet stretch of
days Tuesday through Thursday. A weak cool front moves in late tonight
turning winds to east briefly at 10-15 mph. Otherwise lighter southeast
winds Tuesday. Heavy rainfall and a risk of flooding Tuesday night through
most of Thursday.

.THIS AFTERNOON...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......9700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (65400 knot-ft) .

TIME (MDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........58     63     63
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0
Temp............75     73     71
RH..............30     31     35
20 ft wind......S 6    S 5    S 5
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....9700   9300   8000
Transport wind..S 7    S 7    S 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..58     65     40
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   GOOD   FAIR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    sprinkles overnight.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds becoming east briefly 10-15 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5000 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........55     55     65     100    100    100
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      10     20     20     20
Temp............70     64     60     58     57     55
RH..............35     46     58     69     77     90
20 ft wind......E 3    E 3    E 3    SE 3   SE 3   E 8
20 ft wind gust.12     12     8      8      8      6
Mix hgt (ft)....4500   600    1000   600    1200   900
Transport wind..E 5    E 8    E 12   SE 12  SE 10  SE 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18     5      11     6      11     7
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 7 to 9 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (44200 knot-ft) .

TIME (MDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........100          100          90
Weather cov.....S CHC        CHANCE       LIKELY
Weather type....RN/FG        RNSHWR       RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).20           50           60
Temp............55           64           66
RH..............93           73           65
20 FT wind......SE 3G9       SE 7G15      SE 9G21
Mix hgt (ft)....800          3100         3600
Transport wind..SE 9         SE 9         SE 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6            28           36
Ventrate Cat....POOR         POOR         POOR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the
lower 60s. Southeast winds around 8 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the
upper 60s. South winds around 6 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Showers and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs
around 70. South winds around 5 mph.

$$
Forecaster...HEFNER
Requested by...Matthew Barone
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622243.0/EPZ
.DELDT 09/21/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Matthew.Barone@usda.gov