Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
879
FNUS74 KEPZ 152301
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Lynch...Texas A&M Forest Service
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
501 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MDT on June 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TUESDAY NIGHT...
.DISCUSSION...
Strong, gusty winds from the east this evening from decaying
thunderstorms. Winds could gusts as high as 60 mph between now and
10PM, causing flare ups and erratic fire behavior. Rain showers
will be very spotty and likely remaining dry at the fire location
overnight. Winds becoming lighter out of the south tonight, with
RH up to 50% by Monday morning. Similar dry and hot weather
Monday, with isolated storms causing gusty outflow winds in the
late afternoon.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
mostly clear (15-25 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 7 mph with gusts to
around 50 mph early in the evening shifting to
the south around 6 mph overnight. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (119800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(5000 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........58 58 25 16 16 18
Weather cov.....S CHC S CHC NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 10 10 10 10
Temp............97 89 83 79 76 72
RH..............15 22 30 35 37 44
20 ft wind......SE 7 SE 7 S 7 W 6 W 6 W 4
20 ft wind gust.50 31 21 14 14 9
Mix hgt (ft)....9200 9200 600 600 600 600
Transport wind..SE 14 SE 14 S 11 S 11 S 7 S 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..120 120 7 7 5 5
Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 105.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......10200 ft AGL increasing to 16000 ft AGL late in
the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (14000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (60900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to very good (126600
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........2 2 2 14
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 0 10 0
Temp............69 81 97 104
RH..............49 38 20 12
20 FT wind......SW 3G7 S 3G7 S 5G9 S 7G10
Mix hgt (ft)....2000 2000 10200 16000
Transport wind..S 7 S 7 SW 9 SW 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14 14 61 127
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD VYGD
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 71.
Max humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 7 mph shifting to the
southwest around 5 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......13100 ft AGL decreasing to 600 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (117600 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(6100 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........43 10 15 15
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
Temp............102 92 84 77
RH..............11 15 20 26
20 FT wind......SE 7G10 S 7G10 S 7G13 SW 5G12
Mix hgt (ft)....13100 13100 600 600
Transport wind..S 11 S 11 S 11 S 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..118 118 6 6
Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 106.
Min humidity........7 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 18700 ft AGL in the
late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 14 mph increasing to around 22 mph
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9400 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
(389300 knot-ft).
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky (%).........12 3 8
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0
Temp............71 90 105
RH..............35 17 9
20 FT wind......SW 5G9 SW 6G14 W 9G22
Mix hgt (ft)....1900 13100 18700
Transport wind..W 6 W 14 W 22
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9 210 389
Ventrate Cat....POOR EXNT EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs around 100. Northwest
winds around 7 mph.
.JUNETEENTH...
Mostly clear. Lows around 70. Highs in the upper 90s. East winds
around 7 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the upper 90s.
Southeast winds around 6 mph.
$$
Forecaster...DENNHARDT
Requested by...Karen Hawkins
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2516020.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL csdispatch@tfs.taum.edu