Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
451
FNUS74 KEPZ 150401
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Turkey Feather Fire...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1001 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on July 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday and Wednesday look favorable for increased thunderstorm
coverage and wetting rainfall chances, as upper level northeasterly
flow brings in weak upper level disturbances, and low level moisture
seeps in from the Gulf of California via Arizona. Surface winds will
remain fairly light in the morning hours, but erratic and gusty
around thunderstorms in the afternoon (up to 40-50 mph). This will
be followed by lighter, but highly variable winds in the evening
from leftover outflow. Afternoon RH values will slowly improve, with
good overnight recovery.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming mostly
cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers early in
the afternoon. Thunderstorms likely in the
afternoon. Rain showers likely late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the
late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......11100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 7 mph shifting to the north around
9 mph in the late morning and early afternoon,
then shifting to the west around 11 mph late in
the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (92600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........24 20 72 79
Weather cov.....NONE NONE DEFNTE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE LIKELY LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 80 70
Temp............55 71 80 77
RH..............66 41 25 30
20 FT wind......W 2G7 W 5G10 NW 7G14 NW 7G14
Mix hgt (ft)....2100 2100 11100 9800
Transport wind..W 7 W 7 N 9 W 11
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13 13 93 81
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of
rain showers in the evening. Slight chance of
thunderstorms late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms late in the evening.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4700 knot-ft).
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........82 82 82 75 75 75 40 40 40 31 31 31
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC NONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH NONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 40 30 30 30 10 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............73 70 69 65 63 62 61 59 59 58 57 56
RH..............37 42 45 52 58 58 58 60 60 62 67 66
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.14 14 14 12 12 12 13 13 13 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.W W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.9 9 9 9 11 11 11 11 8 8 8 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..31 31 31 31 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 9 mph shifting to the west around 12
mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (18900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (76400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........41 41 41 39 39 39 65 65 65 85 85 85
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONEDEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONEDEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 90 90 90 90 90 90
Temp............55 55 61 69 74 77 78 78 77 75 74 72
RH..............69 69 58 45 37 32 29 29 31 34 37 41
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 16 16 16
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Transp wind dir.NW NW NW NW N N N N W W W W
Transp wind spd.8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19 19 19 19 76 76 76 76 45 45 45 45
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR GD GD GD GD FR FR FR FR
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s.
Highs in the upper 70s. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s.
Highs in the upper 70s. Light winds.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s.
Highs in the upper 70s. Light winds.
$$
Forecaster...HARDIMAN
Requested by...Selway Wildland Module
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2518026.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jacob.sohr@usda.gov,aaron.l.jones@usda.gov,dan.fairchild@usda.gov