499
FNUS74 KEPZ 281207
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for RX Arrastra...Gila National Forest
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
607 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on September 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Increasing moisture and rain chances today with isolated showers
this morning, becoming scattered in the afternoon and widespread
tonight. Winds will be breezier today, shifting southerly this
afternoon at 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph. Gusty and erratic
outflow winds are possible into tonight. Fair ventilation is
forecast for this afternoon with seasonal temperatures. Scattered
to widespread showers and storms persist through Tuesday night with
high rain rates and flash flooding possible. Drier conditions
return for Wednesday as winds shift westerly and remain breezy. Good
ventilation is forecast later in the week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the morning, then rain showers
                    and chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (52700 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........56     64     83     83     90
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10     20     20     40     80
Temp............59     65     67     65     64
RH..............69     65     65     73     78
20 ft wind......SE 8   SE 10  S 12   S 12   S 10
20 ft wind gust.17     23     23     23     21
Mix hgt (ft)....1600   3300   3700   3200   2000
Transport wind..SE 12  S 15   S 17   S 15   S 13
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18     44     53     43     26
Ventrate Cat....POOR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the evening. Rain showers through the
                    night. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8000 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........91     91     81     90     90     96
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).90     90     100    80     80     100
Temp............61     58     57     56     56     56
RH..............90     96     96     100    96     96
20 ft wind......SE 7   SE 7   SE 7   S 6    S 6    S 7
20 ft wind gust.16     16     16     13     13     15
Mix hgt (ft)....1400   1000   1100   1000   1300   1600
Transport wind..S 12   S 9    S 10   S 9    S 12   S 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14     10     8      9      12     14
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the morning. Rain showers
                    through the day. Chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (13000 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........97        95        90        92
Weather cov.....DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE    CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).100       100       80        90
Temp............56        56        57        57
RH..............96        100       100       100
20 FT wind......S 8G17    S 9G20    S 7G14    S 9G17
Mix hgt (ft)....1600      1200      1400      1600
Transport wind..S 10      S 13      S 12      SE 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..15        13        15        16
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the mid 40s. Highs around 60. West winds around 11 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. North
winds around 8 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. East
winds around 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...ARONSON
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622435.5/EPZ
.DELDT 09/28/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL gromero@blm.gov,jselby@blm.gov,mmunoz@blm.gov,nmsdc@firenet.gov