Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
288
FNUS74 KEPZ 031212
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Ft. Stanton Piles...BLM
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
612 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on September 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather concerns will be low for the rest of the week. For
today, light winds are expected, shifting northwesterly during the
afternoon. There`s a low chance of showers and storms developing in
the afternoon and evening with gusty and erratic winds possible.
Overnight recovery will be fair to good tonight. For Thursday,
winds shift southwesterly and become a bit breezier to about 10 mph.
Slight rain chances are forecast again for tomorrow. Moisture levels
and rain chances increase Friday and Saturday with a threat of flash
flooding. Overnight recoveries become excellent into the weekend.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm through Thursday, then cooling.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......9700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (77000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16 12 12 12 39 39 39 49 49 49
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONESCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONESCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 20 20
Temp............61 65 69 73 75 77 78 79 79 78
RH..............56 50 44 35 32 30 30 29 29 30
20 FT wind dir..W NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N
20 FT wind spd..5 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 7 7
20 FT wind gust.9 13 13 13 15 15 15 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 1.3 4.6 7.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7
Transp wind dir.W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.8 8 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 10 37 57 77 77 75 75 75 75
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR FR GD GD GD GD GD GD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
west 5 to 8 mph in the late evening and
overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4800 knot-ft).
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........62 62 62 48 48 48 54 54 54 55 55 55
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............75 70 68 66 65 64 63 62 61 61 60 59
RH..............34 44 47 48 50 48 50 50 49 49 49 51
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 8 8 8
20 FT wind gust.12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...6.6 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 13 13 13 13
Vrate kt-ft/1K..40 20 10 10 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the southwest
around 9 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 11 mph shifting to the southwest
around 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (65000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........51 51 51 38 38 38 51 51 51 68 68 68
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONESCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONESCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20
Temp............59 60 64 68 72 75 77 79 80 81 81 80
RH..............49 51 46 40 34 29 26 25 25 25 26 28
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..7 7 7 5 5 5 6 6 6 9 9 9
20 FT wind gust.13 13 13 10 10 10 13 13 13 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.11 11 11 11 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..12 12 12 12 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR GD GD GD GD GD GD GD GD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds around
8 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
mid 50s. Highs in the upper 60s. East winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds around 5 mph.
$$
Forecaster...ARONSON
Requested by...Dominic Bell
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2521188.0/EPZ
.DELDT 09/03/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dlbell@blm.gov