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FNUS74 KEPZ 241616
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for JACKS PEAK...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1016 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1000 MDT on July 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

We will have low fire weather concerns over the next several days.
Our winds today will be light except for possible outflow winds
this afternoon and evening for the thunderstorms that will
develop. Min RH`s today and Saturday will be in the upper 20`s to
lower 30`s. We will see a chance for thunderstorms (and outflow
winds) on Saturday and Sunday, then lower rain chances to start
next week. Winds look to continue to stay light for next week as
well.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 7 mph in the late morning and
                    early afternoon becoming light. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......11200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 13 mph shifting to the south late in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (69300 knot-ft) .

TIME (MDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........11  11  20  20  20  60  60  60
Weather cov.....NONENONECHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........NONENONECHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   30  30  30  40  40  40
Temp............79  81  84  85  85  86  85  83
RH..............34  32  29  27  27  26  28  31
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   6   6   6   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.13  13  13  13  13  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...6.9 6.9 10  10  11  11  8.1 8.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   S
Transp wind spd.13  12  9   7   7   7   7   8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..69  69  68  68  68  68  48  48
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  FR  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 65.
Max humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 9 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 8 mph late in the evening, then shifting
                    to the northeast around 9 mph late in the
                    evening shifting to the southeast 8 to 10 mph
                    late in the evening shifting to the west around
                    7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3700 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........71     71     86     75     75     61
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30     30     20     10     10     10
Temp............81     76     73     72     69     67
RH..............37     46     51     51     59     63
20 ft wind......SE 3   SE 3   E 4    SE 3   SE 3   S 3
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     9      9      9
Mix hgt (ft)....3300   600    800    600    500    500
Transport wind..S 9    S 9    NE 9   SE 8   SE 10  S 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..27     5      7      5      5      4
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph late in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast
                    5 to 12 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (50200 knot-ft) .

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........47        27        35        41
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      CHANCE    CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         10        30        30
Temp............66        72        81        82
RH..............61        48        34        34
20 FT wind......W 3G9     NW 2G9    E 3G12    S 5G13
Mix hgt (ft)....500       2000      7600      7200
Transport wind..W 8       SW 8      SE 5      SE 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4         14        38        50
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      POOR      FAIR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 60s. Highs in the mid 80s. Light winds.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 80s. Light
winds.
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 80s. South
winds around 5 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BRICE
Requested by...Jordan Johnston
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2618136.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/24/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL juan.montoya@usda.gov,Nicholas.Ford@usda.gov,nmadc@firenet.gov,jonathan.crane@usda.gov,jordan.p.johnston@usda.gov,roy.hough@usda.gov