567
FNUS74 KEPZ 162322
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Turkeyfeather...U.S. Forest Service
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
522 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MDT on July 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Thursday will see fairly similar conditions to what was seen
Wednesday. Skies are expected to start off partly to mostly sunny
before cumulus clouds begin to build up during the late morning
and afternoon hours. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop as a result with gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent
lightning the main concern. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will
be light and primarily driven by terrain with ridge level winds
from the south. Smoke transport will start off west to east before
shifting south to north.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the morning.
                    Rain showers and thunderstorms likely in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........30-35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......8300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 5 mph shifting to the south 9 to 11
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (83000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........22     13     13     35     45     45
Weather cov.....NONE   S CHC  S CHC  LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   S CHC  S CHC  LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).10     20     20     60     60     60
Temp............49     63     72     75     75     74
RH..............88     59     40     35     34     35
20 ft wind......SW 2   SE 3   SE 3   S 6    SW 5   SW 5
20 ft wind gust.7      12     12     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....2200   2200   8300   8300   8200   8200
Transport wind..W 5    W 5    S 9    S 9    SW 11  SW 11
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11     11     83     83     82     82
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD


$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...Donavan Albert, PSC3(t)
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2518141.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL donavan_albert@firenet.gov