Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
304
FNUS74 KEPZ 312212
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Cameron Creek RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
412 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 MDT on June 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Dry air will be in place throughout the weekend. The 20ft winds
will be be light to low end breezy and the temperatures above the
the average. The ventilation rates will be excellent. By early next
week, there will not be much changes to the weather as the min
RHs will be below 15%. The overnight recoveries will be fair. The
winds will continue to be light in the mornings, but become low
end breezy in the afternoons. The ventilation rates will be
excellent. There might be a slight chance (less than 15%) that
this area may see some precipitation by the middle of next week.
Due to this, fire weather conditions will be near critical each
day.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........8 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......13200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (124000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (160200 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........2 2 3
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1
Temp............79 84 85
RH..............11 9 8
20 ft wind......SW 9 SW 9 SW 11
20 ft wind gust.17 17 20
Mix hgt (ft)....12900 13200 13200
Transport wind..S 10 SW 12 SW 12
Haines index....2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..124 160 160
Ventrate Cat....VYGD EXNT EXNT
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph shifting to the
northwest after 3 am.
Mixing height.......11900 ft AGL decreasing to 700 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest
around 13 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (154500 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(7800 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........3 3 2 2 2 3
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............82 72 66 62 58 56
RH..............8 11 14 16 20 23
20 ft wind......W 11 W 11 W 8 NW 6 NW 6 NW 6
20 ft wind gust.20 20 16 12 12 9
Mix hgt (ft)....11900 11900 700 700 700 700
Transport wind..W 15 W 15 NW 12 NW 12 NW 13 NW 13
Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..155 155 8 8 8 8
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........8 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the west
11 to 12 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......10100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (46800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (140100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (185100
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........4 3 3 7
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............55 68 78 83
RH..............25 15 10 8
20 FT wind......NW 6G12 W 8G16 W 11G20 W 12G22
Mix hgt (ft)....4300 4300 9300 10100
Transport wind..NW 12 NW 12 W 16 W 20
Haines index....2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..47 47 140 185
Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR VYGD EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 80s.
Northwest winds around 9 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper 80s.
Northwest winds around 9 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 90s. West
winds around 8 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower 90s.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 80s.
.OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY JUNE 08 THROUGH FRIDAY JUNE 14...
...Put 8 to 14 day outlook text here...
After somewhat of an active pattern (slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms) the middle of next week (Wednesday and Thursday),
conditions will return to a dry pattern for the rest of the
period with the temperatures above the normal. As per the Climate
Prediction Center, this area should see near normal precipitation
with a 50% chance of above normal temperatures. The 20ft winds in
the afternoons will be breezy.
$$
Forecaster...TEXEIRA
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415232.3/EPZ
.DELDT 05/31/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov