Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
323
FNUS74 KEPZ 201649
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Normandy...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1049 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1100 MDT on June 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT FRIDAY...
.DISCUSSION...
Moisture will stay in place today and through at least the weekend
keeping min RH values above critical thresholds during this time.
Temperatures will run several degrees below average today and
tomorrow. Winds are still a concern as east and southeast winds
are expected to stay somewhat elevated through tonight and even
into Friday. In general speeds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35
mph remain possible. These winds will however keep vent rates
elevated through the next few days.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. East winds 25 to 28 mph with gusts to
around 48 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 33 to 34 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (143700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (179800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
Sky (%).........19 22 27 27
Weather cov.....NONE NONE S CHC S CHC
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............85 89 91 90
RH..............35 30 27 27
20 ft wind......E 28 E 27 E 25 E 25
20 ft wind gust.47 48 45 45
Mix hgt (ft)....5000 5000 6200 6200
Transport wind..E 33 E 33 E 34 E 34
Haines index....3 3 2 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..144 144 180 180
Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD EXNT EXNT
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
showers in the evening. Slight chance of
thunderstorms through the night. Chance of
showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2100, then 1 until 2400, then 3.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. East winds 25 to 26 mph with gusts to
around 45 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
overnight.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 32 to 37 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (154600 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to good (66800 knot-ft) late in the
night decreasing to poor (37200 knot-ft)
overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........39 39 62 74 74 66
Weather cov.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC NONE S CHC S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 20 20 20 30
LAL.............3 3 1 6 6 4
Temp............88 80 75 72 70 68
RH..............29 39 49 59 67 74
20 ft wind......E 25 E 25 E 25 E 26 E 26 E 25
20 ft wind gust.45 45 45 45 45 45
Mix hgt (ft)....5000 5000 1900 1900 1400 1400
Transport wind..E 37 E 37 E 36 E 36 E 32 E 32
Haines index....4 5 5 3 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..155 155 67 67 37 37
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT GOOD GOOD POOR POOR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
showers in the morning, then showers and chance
of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 16 to 23 mph. Gusts up to 41 mph in
the morning and early afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 21 to 27 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (59800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (125000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........62 63 68 81
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 80 80
LAL.............1 1 5 5
Temp............67 77 84 88
RH..............75 56 43 34
20 FT wind......E 23G41 E 21G39 E 20G36 SE 16G31
Mix hgt (ft)....2500 2500 5000 7100
Transport wind..E 27 E 27 SE 23 SE 21
Haines index....2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..60 60 89 125
Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR GOOD VYGD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
around 70. Highs in the lower 90s. East winds around 11 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower 90s. Southeast winds around
6 mph.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 60s. Highs in the mid 90s. Southwest winds around
7 mph.
$$
Forecaster...LANEY
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416410.1/EPZ
.DELDT 06/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov