Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
888
FNUS74 KEPZ 120031
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for 16 Springs RX...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
531 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MST on November 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Our airmass continues to modify behind Sunday`s coldfront, with high
pressure building back over the region, and a return of southwesterly
winds helping to warm the area back up. Thus, through at least Thursday
we will see day to day warming, and day to day RH drops (both Max and Min).
With high pressure over the region, winds will be generally light, and
mostly from the southwest. The combination of coolish surface temperatures,
and high pressure aloft, will keep mixing heights low. Thus ventilation
will suffer due to the shallow mixing and relatively light SW transport
winds. An approaching Pacific trough, late week, and through the weekend,
will allow for stronger SW winds, a slight bump in RH, and flat to cooler
temperatures. The Saturday precipitation chance, is looking to be a long-
shot, and the Sunday precipitation chances is also looking bleaker than
previous models suggested.
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 6 mph early in the morning
becoming light, then becoming southeast around
5 mph early in the afternoon shifting to the
west.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6600 knot-ft).
TIME (MST) 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A
Sky (%).........18 18 18 12 12 12 15 15 15 18 18 18
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............39 42 47 57 61 64 66 67 68 66 65 59
RH..............40 39 38 27 22 20 19 18 17 19 19 25
20 FT wind dir..W W W S S S SE SE SE W W W
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.12 12 12 9 9 9 13 13 13 13 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4
Transp wind dir.W W W W SW SW SW SW W W W W
Transp wind spd.6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7 7 7 7 36 36 36 36 38 38 38 38
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 15 mph increasing to around 19 mph
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4800 knot-ft).
TIME (MST) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P
Sky (%).........22 22 22 33 33 33 44 44 44 46 46 46
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............53 48 44 42 41 41 42 43 44 45 45 46
RH..............28 31 35 36 36 36 34 33 32 29 29 28
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..6 6 6 8 8 8 10 10 10 11 11 11
20 FT wind gust.14 14 14 16 16 16 18 18 18 20 20 20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.9 9 9 9 15 15 15 15 19 19 19 19
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 5 5 5 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........16 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 11 to 19 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (21100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to fair (50800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (MST) 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A
Sky (%).........41 41 41 37 37 37 39 39 39 46 46 46
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............47 49 52 56 61 65 68 68 67 65 62 58
RH..............28 29 28 25 21 18 17 17 18 20 23 27
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.20 20 20 20 20 20 18 18 18 16 16 16
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.19 19 19 19 16 16 16 16 11 11 11 11
Vrate kt-ft/1K..21 21 21 21 51 51 51 51 47 47 47 47
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR FR
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
West winds around 8 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows around 40. Highs in
the lower 60s. West winds around 9 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Cooler. Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and snow showers. Lows
in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 50s. Southwest winds around
10 mph.
$$
Forecaster...BIRD
Requested by...Matthew Barone
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2525324.7/EPZ
.DELDT 11/11/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL matthew.barone@usda.gov