Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
165
FNUS74 KEPZ 191945
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Monastery Piles RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1245 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 MST on November 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Low fire danger today with scattered wetting rains through the afternoon,
becoming widespread during the evening and overnight hours.
Isolated instances of snow showers could mix in with the rain at times.
Winds through the remainder of the afternoon out of the SW/W at 7-12 mph with
gusts to 15-20 mph. Min RH values betwee 75-85 percent with temperatures
in the low to middle 40s. Rain/snow continues through the overnight and into
Thursday. Winds remain low-end breezy through the overnight, becoming south.
Winds continue to increase through the late morning and afternoon/evening
hours at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Smoke ventilation rates through the
period remain Poor to Fair.
.REMAINDER OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Scaterred to mostly cloudy (60-90 percent). Rain chances
will continue increase through the afternoon and evening
hours. Isolated thundershowers will be possible as well
through today. Moderate to isolated instances of heavy
rain possible
Chance of pcpn......30-50 percent through 1500, becoming 70-90 thereafter and
lasting through the evening.
Max temperature.....Between 43-48 degrees.
Min humidity........75-85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds generally light at 3-7 mph and out of the S/SW. Breezier
winds in the vicinity of showers and isolated thundershowers
this afternoon/evening
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 19 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....2-4 hour window of Fair smoke ventilation rates between 1300 to
1600 this afternoon.
TIME (MST) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........80 80 80 90 90 90
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........NONENONESCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 40 30 30 30
Temp............41 41 42 41 40 39
RH..............89 89 86 85 89 92
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW W W W
20 FT wind spd..6 6 7 9 10 10
20 FT wind gust.12 12 14 18 20 20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.0
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.19 19 19 19 19 19
Vrate kt-ft/1K..36 46 46 46 46 39
Ventrate Cat....PR FR FR FR FR PR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-90 percent) through the period. Scattered
to widespread showers through the period. Isolated instances
of rain/snow mix possible
Chance of pcpn......90 percent through the overnight hours, decreasing to
45-60 by sunrise on Thursday.
Min temperature.....28-33 degrees.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds becoming light at 2-6 mph and varible in direction,
or terrain/drainage driven.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5700 knot-ft).
TIME (MST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........62 62 62 50 50 50 39 39 39 38 38 38
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).90 90 90 90 80 80 80 70 70 70 60 60
Temp............38 36 35 34 34 33 32 32 31 31 31 31
RH..............92 96 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N
20 FT wind spd..9 9 9 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 3 3
20 FT wind gust.21 21 21 14 14 14 9 9 9 8 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 9 9 9 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..22 22 22 22 10 10 10 10 6 6 6 6
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Scaterred to mostly cloudy (60-90 percent). Rain chances
will continue decrease through the afternoon and evening
hours.
Chance of pcpn......70-80 percent in the morning, decreasing through
the afternoon and evening..
Max temperature.....40-45 degrees.
Min humidity........75-85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph early
in the afternoon, then becoming light late in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 7 mph shifting to the west 15
to 20 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8400 knot-ft), becoming Fair during the afternoon.
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........83 83 83 79 79 79 77 77 77 76 76 76
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RS RS RS SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC NONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).80 80 80 70 70 70 50 50 50 30 30 30
Temp............32 32 32 33 35 38 40 42 43 43 43 43
RH..............100 92 92 92 86 86 86 82 80 77 77 79
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..8 8 9 10 11 11 17 17 17 20 20 20
20 FT wind gust.16 16 18 20 25 25 27 27 27 30 30 30
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W
Transp wind spd.18 18 18 18 21 21 21 21 28 28 28 28
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9 9 9 9 32 32 32 32 43 43 43 43
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Mostly dry. Lows in the lower 30s.
Highs around 50s. South winds around 7 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the lower 30s.
Highs in the lower 50s. East winds around 7 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Colder. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows in the lower 30s.
Highs in the lower 40s. North winds around 5 mph
$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...Silver City Dispatch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2526383.1/EPZ
.DELDT 11/19/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov