305
FNUS74 KEPZ 241710
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Normandy...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1110 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 MDT on June 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Lighter west winds are expected today. A scattered shower or
thunderstorm is possible late in the day and again during the
afternoon and evening hours of Tuesday. Storm chances increase
even more around midweek as the moisture plume moves into the
region. Outside of outflows, winds will be generally light from
the west through midweek. Temperatures will warm up to above
normal early this week.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Scattered showers
                    early in the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms
                    through the day. Numerous showers late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................3 until 1500, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......8900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 7 mph shifting to the north late in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (45500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........25     25     47
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).40     40     70
LAL.............3      3      5
Temp............86     90     90
RH..............39     30     30
20 ft wind......W 7    W 7    W 8
20 ft wind gust.10     10     13
Mix hgt (ft)....7600   8900   8900
Transport wind..E 7    N 7    N 7
Haines index....3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..46     53     53
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   FAIR   FAIR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    isolated showers and thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2400, then 3 until 0300, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 68.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 11 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........60     60     51     55     55     58
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).50     50     50     20     20     10
LAL.............5      5      4      6      6      1
Temp............87     80     75     72     71     69
RH..............32     45     58     68     71     73
20 ft wind......W 9    W 9    SW 8   SW 7   SW 7   SW 6
20 ft wind gust.14     14     15     13     13     9
Mix hgt (ft)....3700   3700   1000   1000   700    700
Transport wind..W 12   W 12   SW 14  SW 14  W 11   W 11
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..30     30     10     10     8      8
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Numerous showers
                    and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (62800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........24        9         25        42
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NUMRUS    NUMRUS
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      SCTTRD    SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        70        70
LAL.............1         1         5         5
Temp............68        75        89        92
RH..............73        60        35        30
20 FT wind......W 6G9     W 6G12    W 7G12    W 10G14
Mix hgt (ft)....1500      1500      7800      7600
Transport wind..W 8       W 8       NW 8      SW 10
Haines index....3         3         3         3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..12        12        52        63
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      FAIR      GOOD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and numerous thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 70s. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around 8 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s.
Highs in the upper 80s. West winds around 6 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 60s. Highs in the upper 80s. West winds around 8 mph.

$$
Forecaster...LANEY
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416410.3/EPZ
.DELDT 06/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov