329
FNUS74 KEPZ 272026
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Juan Mesa- D5 Piles...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
226 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 MDT on September 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
South to southwest winds will continue this afternoon and will become
light and variable overnight tonight. Highs will be seasonal with
good venting until sunset. Weather conditions decline for
tomorrow. Scattered to numerous showers will begin to move into
the area mid to late morning with on and off, mostly on, showers
and thunderstorms the rest of the afternoon, lasting through
Tuesday, finally winding down sometime early Wednesday. Rainfall
amounts may be very heavy (1-2" with a risk for up to 4") with
flash flooding a concern. The table below for vent rates is
probably best case scenario. A rainy scenario will limit afternoon
temperatures and therefore limit vent rates. Smoke transport will
generally be to the north to northwest with variation overnight
tonight and near thunderstorms.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 9 mph.
Mixing height.......8000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (66000 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      3 PM
Sky (%).........53
Weather cov.....NONE
Weather type....NONE
Tstm cov........NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0
Temp............76
RH..............36
20 FT wind......SW 9G16
Mix hgt (ft)....8000
Transport wind..SW 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..80
Ventrate Cat....GOOD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 7 mph shifting to the east
                    around 5 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 9 mph shifting to the southeast
                    6 to 9 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1400 knot-ft).

TIME (MDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........36           46           39
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         NONE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
Temp............72           63           60
RH..............41           58           62
20 FT wind......S 7G15       E 5G9        SE 5G10
Mix hgt (ft)....3100         500          500
Transport wind..W 9          S 7          SE 9
Vrate kt-ft/1K..25           1            4
Ventrate Cat....POOR         POOR         POOR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers in the morning, then numerous rain
                    showers and chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph with gusts to around
                    21 mph shifting to the south 10 to 12 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (55500 knot-ft) .

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........42        41        73        78
Weather cov.....ISOLTD    SCTTRD    SCTTRD    NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      CHANCE    CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).20        30        50        70
Temp............58        63        68        60
RH..............69        62        59        97
20 FT wind......SE 5G13   S 8G21    S 12G23   S 10G23
Mix hgt (ft)....600       1600      3700      1600
Transport wind..SE 9      S 14      S 17      S 15
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7         20        56        20
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      FAIR      Poor

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Numerous showers and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid
50s. Highs in the lower 60s. South winds around 7 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. West winds around
8 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. North
winds around 8 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...L Carver
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622618.0/EPZ
.DELDT 09/27/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL liz.carver@usda.gov